Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, April 19, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Gulfstream Park

Sunday, April 19, 2020

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

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​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.

Grade B=Solid Play.

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

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​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:55 ET. Grade: C  

Use: 2-The Velvet Beast; 4-Trevess; 5-Dinner At Five; 12-Books; 16-Victory Crusade

Forecast: The Sunday opener has been taken off the turf, resulting in a field that contains too many unknowns to play with any degree of confidence. We’ll pass; rolling exotic players should spread as deeply as they can afford to.  Among those to consider include The Velvet Beast (first-timer with okay works); Trevess (runner-up effort two races back in an off-the-turf charts well here); Dinner At Five (hit the board twice vs. tougher over this main track last year); Books (second-timer was well-backed in straight maiden affair in debut); and Victory Crusade (main-track only entrant shows some decent drills).

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:24 ET. Grade: C+ 

Use: 1-Suz; 5-Four K’s

Forecast: Four K’s plummets to the bottom, removes blinkers, switches to D. Davis and returns to the main track in this $6,250 abbreviated sprint for older fillies and mares.  The W. Ward-trained daughter of Field Commission may be most effective going short and has won over this main track in the past.  A recent bullet half mile workout (:48 3/5, fastest of five) should have her fit and ready for first start since January.  Suz didn’t leave cleanly when fading to third in a similar event earlier this month but if she breaks well from the rail the veteran mare could find herself as the controlling speed.  In the frame in 14 of 20 career starts, the D. Schettino-trained mare is worth including in rolling exotic play at least as a back-up.

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​​​​​RACE 3: Post 1:53 ET. Grade:  B-

Use: 2-Mighty Fast; 7-Strong Ending

Forecast: Strong Ending drops for the third consecutive race to the bottom-rung $12,500 maiden claiming level, not a healthy sign by any means.  But this return to dirt should suit him well and in a race without much speed he’s likely to secure a comfortable pace-stalking position outside.  At 9/5 on the morning line, the son of Strong Mandate won’t be offering much wagering value, but we’ll use him in rolling exotic play while also including Mighty Fast, a lightly-raced son of Flat Out with gradually improving figures.  His pace-pressing style that he displayed in his three previous outings – all sprints - suggest the possibility of becoming the controlling speed in a field without much zip.

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RACE 4: Post 2:23 ET. Grade: X 

Use: 3-Lalali; 7-Princess Ulele

Forecast: Lalali, just claimed for $20,000 and returning for $12,500, is listed at 8/5 on the morning line in this main track sprint reserved for 3-year-old fillies, a type of maneuver that is normally considered suspicious.  But this barn is aggressive with its claiming stock so we’re going to assume the daughter of Handsome Mike is in here to steal a purse.  Princess Ulele, nicely drawn outside, drops to her lowest level ever and should be running on late.  She’s not particularly fast on speed figures but has a prior win over this main track and will be dangerous if our top pick, for whatever reason, fails to fire.

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RACE 5: Post 2:53 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Eternal Peace; 3-Pop a Choc

Forecast: Pop a Choc pressed the pace outside and remained a strong factor until deep stretch before weakening to wind up third in a promising run over this course and distance last month.  The M. Casse barn has solid stats with second-time starters, so we’re anticipating this daughter of Bernardini will be fitter and stronger in this maiden special weight turf miler that came up a tad light.  It’s likely that E. Zayas will employ gate-to-wire tactics. Eternal Peace ran a bit better than the line will show when fifth in her debut more than a year ago and could easily be a better type this time around for R. Attfield.  The daughter of War Front shows a bullet half mile turf drill (:48 2/5, fastest of 19) at Payson Park eight days ago to have her on edge and based on the speed figure earned last year she’s a solid fit.  We’ll prefers Pop a Choc on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

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<b>RACE 6: Post 3:23 ET. Grade: B-</b>

Use: 3-Bareeqa; 5-Scatnap

Forecast: The sixth race is a bit of scramble and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Bareeqa, a starter ($25,000) stakes winner last time out in mid-February, takes a class drop into the starter ($16,000) optional claiming ranks, switches to L. Saez, and seems well-placed to score right back.  The 7-year-old mare, a 12-time winner during her career including four wins over the local lawn, likes to settle and blast home, and with a decent pace and good racing luck she should be along in time.  Also worth including is another old pro, Scatnap, herself a 10-time winner overall, four of which were accomplished on the Gulfstream Park grass course.  She can be tough on the front end or from a stalking position, so H. Berrios, who takes over for the injured P. Lopez, can choose his path depending upon the race flow.  We’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics and then press keying Bareeqa on top.

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:53 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Brookes All Mine

Forecast: Brooks All Mine, first off the claim for a low profile outfit, returns at the same $8,000 price after finishing second in a similar event late last month.  The veteran mare, first or second in five of six starts over the local main track, can win on the lead or from just off the pace, and in a race that should produce modest early fractions the daughter of It’s No Joke should find herself comfortably placed throughout.  The switch to E. Zayas is monumental, so let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her 2-1 morning line odds.

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​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 5-No Word

Forecast: No Word, away since finishing a close fifth in the Pilgrim S.-G3 at Belmont Park last fall, certainly can fire fresh, having won his debut at Saratoga in his previous start, and the T. Pletcher-trained 3-year-old has done some excellent work at Palm Beach Downs to have him fit and ready.  L. Saez, the barn’s go-to rider this meeting, should have the son of Silent Name within range to the head of  lane before cutting him loose.  At 3-1 on the morning line we’ll make him a strong play both in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.

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​​​​RACE 9: Post 4:55 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Trappezoid; 8-Yes I See

<b>Forecast: Trappezoid</b> seeks his third straight win and is protected this time in a starter $8,000 optional claimer after just winning an open $12,500 extended sprint in good style with very strong speed figure.  The son of Trappe Shot likes to settle and produce a late run and was an easy winner over this track and distance two runs back.  E. Zayas will give him the patient ride he requires.  <b>Yes I See</b> is a deep closer with numbers that fit and exits a series of tougher races, so we’re expecting the 9-year-old veteran to make some noise from the quarter pole home.  With 14 career victories on his resume, the old pro is simply too much racehorse to dismiss for a streaky P. Walder barn that may be on the verge of heating up.

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​​​​​RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET. Grade: B+-

Single: 3-All Quality

Forecast: All Quality, sixth beaten two lengths in a similar first-level allowance turf miler last month, is due for some good luck after encountering a brutal trip that cost her whatever chance she may have had.  Drawn poorly and fanned very wide into the clubhouse turf to lose all position, she advanced readily into the lane, attempted to rally in the final furlong but was placed in tight quarters and was forced to steady sharply.  The lightly-raced daughter of Quality Road switches to L. Saez, leaves from a must better post position, and shows a very healthy recent work tab to have her on edge.  A 6-1 on the morning line, the M. Casse-trained filly offers good wagering value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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​​RACE 11: Post 5:55 ET. Grade: B   

Single: 2-Let Them Eat Cake; 4-Renata; 9-Royal Mandate

<b>Forecast</b>: Renata ran very well at 14-1 over this course and distance in her debut last month, lagging to the head of the lane and then accelerating inside in the final furlong to miss by a half-length before galloping out to the clubhouse turn well in front.  She faces a similar field today and probably won’t need to improve much, if at all, to graduate.  We’ll also include <b>Let Them Eat Cake</b>, a progressive daughter of Animal Kingdom who might inherit the role as the controlling speed from her good inside draw after leading the way until deep stretch under similar conditions last month and working well since, and <b>Royal Mandate</b>, a solid runner-up with a strong figure at Tampa Bay Downs in her sophomore (and turf) debut last month.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, April 19, 2020

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