The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Friday, August 4, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Streetwithnoname
Forecast: Streetwithnoname exits a much tougher race, adds Lasix, shows a sharp recent work over the track and should be the controlling speed from her comfortable outside posts. She’s 7/2 on the morning line but we suspect she go lower. We’ll make her a rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Supreme Venture; 7-Street Vision
Forecast: Supreme Venture is a first-off-the-claim for Miller (31% with a flat-bet profit) and is protected in this starter’s allowance sprint following a recent 58 1/5 seconds gate work at San Luis Rey Downs. In his third start off a layoff, the Forestry gelding should be set for a career top performance. Street Vision exits a hot, productive race when finishing second while more than five lengths clear of a next-out winner. He’ll have every chance from his outside draw to secure an ideal pace-stalking position.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Desert Steel
Forecast: Desert Steel just won over a turf course (Santa Anita) that she’s never been terribly fond of and today she moves to course (Del Mar) she adores. A sharp blowout around dogs just a few days ago indicates the daughter of Desert Code remains spot on, and from her nice outside post position the Callaghan-trained mare should have clear sailing and every chance. We’ll make her a short priced rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-One Fast Broad; 6-Goodlooknbroad
Forecast: One Fast Broad has worked like a nice filly for her debut and this Ruis-trained juvenile appears fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. Goodlooknbroad has the benefit of a prior one and has every right to produce a forward move with the addition of blinkers. Preference goes to One Fast Broad and we’ll have extra tickets keying her on top.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Run Like Rhett; 3-Fishel; 5-Red King
Forecast: Red King goes for a big purse today as a ship-and-win candidate so you know he’s cranked up for a top effort. His maiden claiming win at Gulfstream Park in March charts very well in this starter’s allowance event; he was simply in too tough in two subsequent starts prior to his arrival in the West. Fishel won over this course last year and was haltered by a barn that excels with the first-off-the-claim angle. Run Like Rhett beat a soft maiden claiming field last time out but earned a monster figure. That race was on dirt; we’ll see today if he can perform just as well vs. tougher on the dirt.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-First Responder; 2-Upperclassman; 5-Invasion Looming
Forecast: First Responder has been away for a year but has trained like a better type this time around for Ellis, who has good stats with layoff runners. He’ll need to break sharply from the rail to avoid trouble, but if he can leave quickly he should be a strong factor throughout. Upperclassmen is unproven on dirt but a 47 seconds (fastest of 75) recent workout over this main track last month gives strong hope that he’ll handle it just fine. His turf numbers make him very dangerous at this level. Invasion Looming has low percentage connections but this class drop coupled with numbers that fit make him worth tossing in as well.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: X
Single: 6-Klondike Creek
Forecast: After competing in races at 10 furlongs or farther in his last four starts, Klondike Creek finally returns to what we believe is his preferred trip and that, coupled with the addition of blinkers, should help return this Richard Mandella-trained colt to winning form. At 8/5 on the morning line he’s not likely to offer much in the way of wagering value, but we can use him as a short priced rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Norwegian Spy; 12-Team Astrology
Forecast: Team Astrology is a first-time starter from a barn that does well with debut runners and shows up cheap despite having a couple of decent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs. She has little beat in this bottom-rung maiden claimer and rates top billing by default. Norwegian Spy drops again in class, gets a break in the weights with the switch to Roman and probably will produce a forward move in her second off a layoff. These two are logical contenders but nothing would surprise us, so feel free to spread as deeply as you can afford to.
SARATOGA
Friday, August 4, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B
Single: 7-Sand City
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Luna Rising; 4-North Eighth Street
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Switzerland; 2-Sethary
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Starlite Mission; 4-Pauseforthecause
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Night Prowler; 8-Catapult; 12-Dancetrack
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Tizzelle; 6-Style Drift
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Italian Syndicate; 6-Star Empire; 8-Lifelong Dreamer
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Petrov; 10-Divine Interventio; 11-Lenstar
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Big Handsome; 4-Yoshida
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Kierland; 3-There He Goes; 6-Calculated Risker
