The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Thursday, July 20, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Finallygotabentley (2-1) has much in his favor and should be a short priced favorite. He’s proven over this main track, has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, and the route-to-sprint angle that always catches our eye. Toss in winning connections and it all adds up to a rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Ocean Dream; 6-Sassy Ashley; 7-Room On the Broom
Forecast: This modest claiming miler is borderline inscrutable so we’ll spread going three-deep in a seven-runner affair. Sassy Ashley and Room On the Broom exit a tougher race and neither would have to improve much to win. Ocean Dream fits on figures based on her turf form but she’s question mark on dirt. Tread lightly.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 8-R Sunday Surprise; 10-Battleground State; 12-Speakers
Forecast: This is a better-than-average state-bred maiden turf miler for fillies and mares. California Chrome’s full-sister R Sunday Surprise (5-1) closed a big gap sprinting in her first try on turf (and her first for new trainer Kristin Mulhall) and may be a better type this time around after returning from an eighth-month layoff. With any kind of forward move, she can win. Battleground State (6-1) was given a run in her debut when facing boys in a tough turf sprint at Santa Anita and should get serious today with the addition of Lasix. Today we’ll find out if she run and we suspect she can. Speakers (3-1) outran her backing with a solid runner-up effort in her debut, though her late kick was somewhat race-shape aided. She’s trained well since, so improvement is likely.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Gummy; 5-Clifton Beach; 8-Shadow Op
Forecast: Gummy (3-1) has several reasons to improve; he’s a first-time Lasix, a first-time gelding, and a first-time Doug O’Neill after being claimed out of a hot race at this level in late May. He’s hoping for a pace meltdown and could easily get it with the presence of Clifton Beach (5/2), a speed type who’s always been suspect in the final furlong, and the debuting Shadow Op (7/2), who has trained like he has plenty of gate zip and clearly won’t have to be a world beater to win a bottom-rung maiden claimer.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Moving; 7-County Lineman; 9-Buymeabond
Forecast: This $32,000 turf claimer is restricted to non-winners in 2017, so it’s an open affair begging to be won by a price horse. Moving (20-1) fits the bill. Distanced in his U.S. debut but gelded since and training very well in recent weeks, the French import has form overseas that makes him a contender at this level and at the price looks rather enticing. Buymeabond (4-1) has been stale of late, though he did run a bit better than the line will show in his last start. Back on his favorite turf course (he’s won four of eight here), the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained gelding could easily come to life over a course that played kindly to closers on opening day. County Lineman (7/2) is another prior winner over the Del Mar lawn, seems in pretty good form, and should draft into a nice stalking position in a race that doesn’t on paper appear to have much early peed.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Miss Pretty; 5-Hold That Smile; 7-Adroit
Forecast: Lots of question marks in this maiden state-bred juvenile filly abbreviated sprint, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Hold That Smile (5/2) was a distant second in her debut and has right to improve with that effort behind her, but a good filly (if there is one in here) probably will beat her. Adroit (6-1) was impressive in the Barretts May preview session over the Del Mar main track and was scratched out of a similar race opening day when she drew the rail. She’s quick but needs to break in a field with other speed-types. Miss Petty (10-1) has trained like a filly with some talent and hails from a clever outfit. At her morning line price she’s worth including.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Easy Grader; 6-Tapped
Forecast: Tapped (3-1) is unbeaten sprinting (in two starts) but winless routing (in four starts). She’s back sprinting today and is reunited with “win rider” Smith, so we’re expecting the daughter of Tapit to regain her best form. With good racing luck she should be along in time, though at this abbreviated five furlong trip there’s little margin for error. Easy Grader (7/2) won over this course and distance last year and was sharp in her comeback when a willing third behind downhill specialist Algorhythmic earlier this month.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Midnight Summer; 10-Ginger Street
Forecast: Ginger Street (5-1) has looked pretty good in the morning – at least good enough to win a high priced maiden claiming juvenile sprint – and is quite intriguing. She only brought $16,000 at auction at April so this is a logical spot for her debut. Midnight Summer (7/2) is bred for speed (Midnight Lute) and has recorded some decent clockings at San Luis Rey Downs. Miller is 21% with a flat-bet profit with first-timers and with Prat aboard she looks very much like a live item.