The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Brookes All Mine; 4-Pica; 6-Stealth Drone
Forecast: A competitive opener has three main contenders, including class-dropping Stealth Drone, a course specialist with a massive weight break trying to provide Hollendorfer with his first win of the season (he’s currently 0-for-16). Brookes All Mine is a first-off-the-claim for Carava with prior winning form over the Del Mar main track along with a route-to-sprint angle, while Pica drops to her lowest level ever and should find herself forcing or pressing a comfortable pace at this extended sprint trip.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-St. Reno; 4-Lambo Luxx
Forecast: St. Reno has had his claim voided in his last two starts due to unsoundness but if he’s feeling good today he certainly can win. He’s one-for-one over the Del Mar main track. Lambo Luxx has a healthier pattern and may be more dependable, though he’s never run particularly well over the local main track. Tread lightly here.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Arethusa; 7-Salsita; 10-Tequila Mary
Forecast: The Pick-6 begins with a grass grab bag with the auxiliary rail 30 feet out, so deep closers may have some navigating to do. Arethusa was somewhat unlucky when finishing strongest in traffic in a first-level allowance race last time out; today she surfaces for a tag so she must be viewed suspiciously after coming off such a nice effort. Clearly, she’s for sale, but still looks more than capable of winning with a repeat of her last race. Salsita always has loved this turf course, but her recent form isn’t inspiring. Maybe she’ll snap back to life with the change in venue. Tequila Mary is poorly drawn but fits at this level and is better than her 12-1 morning line suggests.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Rolling Shadow
Forecast: The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s try a fresh face. Rolling Shadow must leave from the rail and comes from a barn that doesn’t win often with debut runners. But she’s trained pretty well, debuts protected in straight maiden company, and lands bug boy Roman. She very much looks like a live item at 12-1 on the morning line.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B
Single: 1-Tiz Wonderfully
Forecast: This race seems like a carbon copy of the fourth, with a live first-timer from a low percentage (with first-time starters) stable breaking from the rail. This weak race is begging to be won by a newcomer, and Tiz Wonderfully, who has shown enough ability in the morning to win a race like this, gets top billing at 5-1 on the morning.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade:
Use: 2-Pacific Coat Hwy; 9-Unapologetic
Forecast: This mini-marathon should be agreeable to both Pacific Coast Hwy and Unapologetic and we’re expecting considerable improvement from both. The former is bred to stay forever and exits a pretty quick race; he’s lightly-raced with rising numbers and is worth inclusion at 12-1 on the morning line. The latter is a one-paced grinder with the proper style for the trip and is reunited with “win rider” Smith.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Big John B; 6-Hard Aces
Forecast: The winners of the last two editions of this main track mini-marathon vie for the best two out of three. Both exit the same race, with Hard Aces third and Big John B sixth in the Gold Cup and Santa Anita. For what it’s worth (probably nothing). ‘Aces earned a 95 Beyer number in his Cougar 2nd Stakes win last year while Big John B was assigned a 94 Beyer fig in is victory in 2015. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Aura Rose; 4-Looking At Thelake
Forecast: Looking At Thelake seem most effective at a flat mile (as opposed to nine furlongs) and a repeat of her strong runner-up effort vs. similar at Santa Anita earlier this month points her out as the one to beat. Aura Rose stretches out for the first time, has the pedigree to stay a mile, and will take some catching if she can establish the pace without undue pressure.
SARATOGA
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X
Pass – No Play
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 7-Sharp Lacey; 9-Out of Nowhere; 10-Indian Gem
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Bunyaan; 6-Combat Controller
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Hammerin Aamer
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Deltalina; 7-A Dixie Twister; 10-Jazzy Juder
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Trouble for Skylar
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Vintage Matters; 8-Voodoo Song
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Elenzee; 4-Heldatgunpoint; 9-Uncle Tbone
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: X
Use: 3-Paulassilverlining; 5-Finley’sluckycharm
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-She Remembered
