The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Thursday, July 27, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jes Jaa; 3-Zarqa Star
Forecast: Jes Jaa returns to his claim level after dropping from open $25,000 to restricted (nw-3) $16,000. The rail is no bargain but he should be within striking range and have every chance. Zarqa Star also drops for the money run, returns to dirt, and has figures good enough to win.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Quiet No More; 9-Tenthousandreasons
Forecast: Quiet No More is a one-paced grinder dropping to her lowest level and may be able to out stay this modest group of maiden claiming fillies and mares. With some help up front she should be along in time. Tenthousandreasons is stretching out for the first time and has the pedigree to handle the trip. She should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position. These are the two we’ll prefer but there are several other possibilities in a race that has “spread” written all over it.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Exclusively Ours; 6-Kenzou’s Rhythm; 8-City Storm
Forecast: The Pick-6 begins with a grass grab bag that offers several contenders. Kenzou’s Rhythm has been victimized by wide trips of late but continues to earn solid figures and should fire one of his better shots today. City Storm shows up in a seller for the first time, has numbers that fit, and looks capable of getting over from his outside draw to be within striking range throughout. Exclusively Ours launches a comeback for Miller (25% with a massive flat-bet profit with this angle) and gets the rail and Prat. He’s a “must use.”
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Vegas Vic; 10-Lucky With You
Forecast: Vegas Vic was very well-meant in his debut but had to settle for second while far clear of the rest in a strong race for the level. He’s protected today in a sign of confidence, adds blinkers, and seems likely to produce a significant forward move. Lucky With You lands the cozy outside post in his first-off-the-claim for O’Neill and should enjoy an ideal stalking trip. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Oh Man
Forecast: Bay Area invader Oh Man was a solid second in his debut (the third place finisher came back to beat straight maidens) and then was third in a hot race in which the winner returned to place in stakes in his next outing. Privately purchased recently, the McLean-trained colt has numbers that can win and lands bug boy Roman. There’s plenty of value here at his morning line of 3-1 if you can get it.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Golden Light; 5-Spin Me a Kiss
Forecast: Spin Me a Kiss was victimized by a suicidal speed duel and paid for it late when second at odds-on down the hill in her most recent start. Today she stretches out for the first time and clearly is the controlling speed. Golden Light lands the good rail and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip. She’ll have every chance if ‘Kiss can’t get the distance.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Avicii; 3-Plastered
Forecast: Plastered earned a career top speed figure when third in a listed stakes last month; she returns to the second level allowance ranks today and a repeat of her last race should be good enough. Also, the Hollendorfer-trained filly gets a huge break in the weights and has won over this main track in the past. Avicci, always genuine and consistent but third when odds-on vs. similar sprinting last time out, stretches out today and should be prominent throughout. She’s back with “win rider” Prat and very likely will rebound with a top effort.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Tweeting; 7-Pantsonfire
Forecast: Tweeting drops into a high priced claimer for the first time and may finally have found a spot to graduate. She’s been beaten as the favorite in three of her five career starts but at this lower level she deserves one more chance. Pantsonfire is a first-off-the-plane for Baltas after finishing a close third in a minor handicap in Ireland last month while earning a career top Timeform rating, one that makes her as strong fit at this level. She gets Lasix and Nakatani and is extremely live with ship and win money augmenting the purse.
SARATOGA
Thursday, July 27, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X
Pass/No Play
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Tarquinia; 4-Fortunate Queen
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Aife; 7-Anothertequilashot; 10-Silver Shaker
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Saratoga Mischief; 8-At Guard
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Cyrielle; 3-Puttinyouonthenews; 4-Layla Noor
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Ray’s The Bar/Tricked Up; 7-Taste for Talent; 9-Mighty Mo
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B
Single: 2-Tom’s d’Etat
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Blue Bahia
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Gypsum Johnny
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Fahan Mura; 5-True Love Is Yare; 8-Cincy Belle
