The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, May 18, 2018
RACE 1: Post 11:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Shotdowninflames; 4-Theorem; 7-Warrior of Light
RACE 2: Post 12:01 ET. Grade: B- (pass if race remains on turf)
Use: 10-Sneaky Betty; 11-Beautiful Maiden (both MTO’s)
RACE 3: Post 12:32 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Sower; 4-Zorally
RACE 4: Post: 1:03 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Dig Deeper; 5-Style Icon
RACE 5: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Startwithsilver; 4-Ms Locust Point; 8-Vertical Oak
RACE 6: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-In Arrears (MTO); 7-Shoe Loves Shoe
RACE 7: Post 2:39 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Artistic Diva; 6-Lezendary; 9-Good Move
RACE 8: Post 3:13 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Holiday Bonus; 6-Douglas Road
RACE 9: Post 3:43 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Irish War Cry; 2-One Liner; 8-Something Awesome
RACE 10: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Imprimis; 7-Hogy
RACE 11: Post 4:48 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Goodonehoney; 9-Sara Street
RACE 12: Post: 5:25 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Souper Striking; 8-Thewayiam
RACE 13: Post 5:57 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Verve’s Tale; 7-Blue Prize
RACE 14: Post 6:31 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Electric; 9-Magical
Friday, May 18, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Beautiful Becca; 4-Proud ‘n’ Ready; 5-Salsita
Forecast: Five of the eight entrants in this $25,000 turf miler for fillies and mares exit the same event, the April 21st 11th race, and since they all finished in a heap, it’s tough to rule any of them out. Beautiful Becca and Proud ‘n’ Ready are two that weren’t in that affair and both should be competitive on the class drop. ‘Becca has numbers that fit and owns two prior wins over the local lawn, so she’s definitely a major player, while ‘Ready, third in a restricted $35,000 claimer over this course two weeks ago, should greatly appreciate the class relief. Salsita always is a late threat, and with good racing luck should at least get a piece of it. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three in rolling exotic play, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Beautiful Princess
Forecast: Beautiful Princess earned a career top speed figure when a fast-finishing third in a similar first-level allowance affair up north on grass and not much better will be needed to handle this main track assignment. She’s reunited with Prat, who won on her two races back at Golden Gate Fields, and with just five lifetime starts the daughter of Giant’s Causeway has upside that most of the others in here don’t. The only question is the return to dirt. Let’s hope that she’ll handle it and make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Tizanillusion; 2-Travieza; 3-G Q Covergirl
Forecast: G Q Covergirl ran very well over this course and distance when last seen in October and the daughter of General Quarters has trained well enough to be fit and ready in this first-level allowance turf sprint. Maldonado should have her on or near the lead throughout. Tizanillusion likely will bust out and go, and if she can establish a clear early lead she could take this field a very long way. If the two speeds hook up, Travieza will be the beneficiary. The O’Neill-trained filly can be tough on the front end but equally effective from off the pace, so Bejarano can judge the situation and play it accordingly. All three should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying G Q Covergirl on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Turing Machine; 4-Broome
Forecast: Broome drops to her lowest level ever and stretches out to a mile for the first time. She looks very much like the controlling speed, has the pedigree to stay the mile, and earned a sprint speed figure two races back that if repeated today will beat this field. Turing Machine can be used as a back-up or a saver; the Cecil-trained filly is a one-paced grinder with numbers that put her somewhere in the hunt.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-My Man Chuckles; 4-Tough It Out; 7-El Tovar
Forecast: This starter handicap for $16,000 turf milers is quite competitive and requires a spread. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s sufficient. Tough It Out looked good winning a restricted (Nw-3) $35,000 claimer over this course and distance last month and should be tough right back for the Desormeaux-Cerin team. He’s sure to get the patient ride he needs. My Man Chuckles has really gotten good of late for Baltas and is seeking to extend his winning streak to three. As sharp as he is right now, he might be able to handle this two-turn trip, though there’s strong evidence to suggest that he’s nothing more than a late-running sprinter. We’ll find out today. Likewise, El Tovar is sharp as a tack and is being brought back on short (two week) rest following an impressive down-the-hill score with a huge number. However, his previous two-turn attempts don’t quite match up.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Explorer; 10-Beneficent
Forecast: Explorer has trained like a good prospect for Baffert and should be plenty fit to fire a big shot in his debut. A $1.25 million purchase last year at the OBS March Sale, the son of Orb has speed, but should be doing his best work from the top of the lane to the wire. Beneficent flashed excellent zip when backed down to favoritism in his debut in late March but felt the effects of a hot pace and weakened to be a distant second behind Kidmon. He should be fitter and tougher today and likely won’t have to go nearly so fast early. We’ll prefer Explorer on top but double the race in our rolling exotics.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Popular Kid; 5-Trapalanda; 7-Jay Makes Us Laugh
Forecast: This is a difficult event for first-level state-bred allowance horses; nothing would surprise us so use as many as you can afford to. Jay Makes Us Laugh doesn’t really strike us as a route-type, but if he’s ever going to get a mile, it’ll be the first time he tries. He just earned a career to speed figure and his pedigree suggests he might handle two turns. Popular Kid is re-equipped with blinkers after failing to mount much of a rally in his last several starts; however, his speed figures make him a solid fit so he must be considered a contender. Trapalanda was overmatched in first-level allowance open company last time out but his two previous wins chart well here and he’s reunited with “win rider” Bejarano.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Hot American; 4-Winning Element
Forecast: Hot American won stylishly over this course in his recent debut and earned a speed figure that makes him a major player in this starter’s allowance affair. He has a furlong less to work with today but the Drysdale-trained gelding should be able to shorten up successfully. Winning Element is the one to fear most; the O’Neill-trained gelding finished a strong second over this course and distance vs. similar last month and retains Prat. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with Hot American on top.