The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Thursday, April 12, 2019
Use: 4-Tick Tock; 6-Appolina
Forecast: Appolina ran reasonably well when second in her debut vs. maiden $50,000 company but today shows up for maiden $30,000, hardly a sign of confidence, especially since she worked 59 2/5 seconds (fastest of 92) since that early March race. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and certainly can win but offers no value. Tick Tock, a distant second in her last pair as the favorite, adds blinkers today so she may improve, but also isn’t one to trust. The winner likely will be one of these two, but this might be a race to avoid.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Iron Curtain; 5-Cayate
Forecast: Cayate missed by a head in a similar spot in early February and if he can turn in two alike – no slam dunk – the Mulhall-trained gelding should be hard to beat. But at 8/5 on the morning line he won’t be particularly attractive on the tote. Iron Curtain likes to run second or third rather than win but his sole victory was accomplished over this track and distance. On numbers he’s a major player in this moderate affair. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out.
RACE 3: Post 2:02 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Take a Leap
Forecast: Take a Leap exits a pair of tougher races but remains above her claim level and looks capable of returning to winning form in this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Both of her wins have come over this course and distance and off her best effort she projects to be along in time. At 2-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post 2:43 PT. Grade: B-
Forecast: Gryffindor has low profile connections and modest recent form but in a below par field of restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimers the son of The Factor rates top billing by default. His numbers make him the logical top pick and his only career win was accomplished on this track. At 4-1 on the morning line he may offer a bit of value, so we’ll use him a straight play and rolling exotic single at or near that price.
RACE 5: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Honeyfromthesouth; 5-Into Chocolate; 6-Ce Ce
Forecast: Honeyfromthesouth certainly isn’t one to count on – she’s failed three consecutive times as an odds-on favorite – but unless one of the first-timers can run she may have found a field she can finally handle. But at 9/5 on the morning line she’s hardly an attractive play. Into Chocolate and Ce Ce are first-timers with credentials and decent works, and both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-North County Guy; 7-Acclimate
Forecast: North County Guy didn’t get the best of trips when unplaced in his first try around two-turns recently but he’s better than that race shows and deserves another chance. The Baltas-Gutierrez team has been highly productive of late, and this state-bred gelding has sprint form that, if repeated at this distance, is more than good enough to beat this field. We like him strongly on top but as a saver we’ll use on a ticket or two Acclimate, a winner over this course and distance with strong speed figure two runs back and stretching out again after exiting a fast, highly-rated downhill turf dash last time out.
RACE 7: Post 4:17 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Wandering Patrol
Forecast: Wandering Patrol has been training like she’s fit and ready to win off the bench for Cecil and if she can avoid trouble from the rail the daughter of Square Eddie should handle this state-bred entry-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares. She’s listed at 3-1 on the morning line and we hope we can get it, but she seems likely to go much lower. We’ll make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 4:47 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Scattering Mink; 5-Over Emphasize; 9-Storming Lady
Forecast: Scattering Mink tries grass for the first time, and we suspect the daughter of Scat Daddy will improve a bunch with the switch in surface. She moves to Bejarano, stretches out again, and should be on or near the lead throughout. Over Emphasize tries two-turns for the first time in her second start off a layoff and the Mike McCarthy-trained daughter of Overanalyze has sprint figures that put her right there. If she’s ever going to be effective routing, it will be in her first try. Storming Lady gets the worst of the draw while also trying a route of ground for the first time and likely will be part of the pace. She’s hit the board in six of eight career starts but may be vulnerable in the final furlong. We’ll use her on a ticket or two as a saver.