Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 19, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

​Top selection indicated in bold-face.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Friday, April 19, 2019

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Vander Kelen; 6-Erotic

Forecast: Erotic drops into a restricted $35,000 claimer and has recent speed figures good enough to beat this field.  He’s reunited with “win rider” Prat and looks capable of producing the last run.  Vander Kelen broke his maiden sprinting on the main track and projects to be the controlling speed while stretching out for the first time.  On pedigree he should be able to get the trip, so if the Glatt-trained gelding isn’t pressured early he could take this field a very long way.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Erotic.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Sturdy One

Forecast: Sturdy One doesn’t offer any wagering value at 6/5 on the morning line but the veteran mare seems like a logical winner in a soft field for $12,500 claiming filly and mare sprinters.  If she can avoid trouble from the rail and repeats her last race, the daughter of Langfuhr shouldn’t have much difficulty.  Let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

​​RACE 3: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Caracortada; 4-Hansen Tale Blues; 6-Whata Flirt

Forecast: ​There’s nothing to trust in this abbreviated sprint for older maiden-claiming fillies and mares, so we’ll sit it out while going three-deep in our rolling exotic play.  Caracortada is a second-time starter from the Miller barn with plenty of room to improve.  The once well-regarded mare flashed speed to press the pace before weakening late in a similar affair in late March and with any kind of forward move today she could be hard to deny.  Hansen Tale Blues, away since December of 2017, shows up in a claimer for the first time and has back speed figures that make her a strong fit in this league.  The work tab looks fair at best but at this level a little will go a long way.  Whata Flirt is a 13-race maiden but has hit the board in each of her last five starts.  The O’Neill-trained filly should be in the battle once again. 

​​​RACE 4: Post 2:42 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Diosa; 3-Time for Suzzie

Forecast: Diosa drops for the money run after a disappointing try two months ago vs. tougher starter’s optional claiming foes up north.  Following two recent bullet drills, the Pender-trained filly will take them as far as she can on the front end.  Time for Suzzie was overmatched in her last outing when facing allowance company but at this $25,000 level she should be far more competitive.  A win over this track and distance two runs back charts very well in this affair.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give top billing to Diosa.

​​RACE 5: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Artie B Good; 7-Encumbered; 8-Snazzy Dresser

Forecast: Encumbered is rounding back to winning form and seems well-placed to get back on track in this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming turf miler.  A former stakes winner, the son of Violence just missed in a good effort in a similar event in early February and been kept on edge in the a.m. with a steady series of workouts.  He can effective on the lead but always has been most effective when held up early and allowed to run late.  Snazzy Dresser is re-equipped with blinkers and likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics.  He’ll be dangerous if he can shake loose early but his winless record over the local turf course (he’s zero=for-six) causes some concern.  Artie B Good was a close third vs. similar in a downhill turf sprint in early March; however, he’s yet to prove that he can be just as effective two-turning.  He’s worth tossing in on a ticket or two. 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Moneydon’tspenditself; 4-Kochees

Forecast:Kochees drops drastically in class and is more than fast enough on speed figures to beat this field with anything close to his best race.  This extended sprint distance is perfect for style, so we’ll put the Hollendorfer-trained gelding squarely on top.  Moneydon’tspenditself crushed a $12,500 field over this track and distance earlier this month and moves up a notch while seeking a repeat score for the always-potent Talamo/Glatt team.  The rail is no bargain, but the son of Street Boss should be able to work out a good enough trip to have his chance.

RACE 7: Post 4:17 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Halo Darlin; 7-Madaket Sunset

Forecast: Halo Darlin always has preferred to run second or third rather than win, but the veteran daughter of Lucky Pulpit, runner-up in her last pair, should draft into an ideal ground-saving, stalking position and have every chance to win this starter’s allowance affair.  However, at 8/5 on the morning line the Pender-trained mare probably won’t be offering any real wagering value in the straight pool.  Madaket Sunset, fourth in the same race Halo Darlin exits, does her best running on the front end but from her outside draw she may be forced into a stalker’s role.  She’s a contender off her best race but it’s hard to envision a trip that will favor her.  Small ticket players may try to survive and advance using just these two, but best advice is to include as many as you can afford to. 

​​RACE 8: Post 4:47 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Blue Skye Jade; 5-Royal Insider; 7-Palace Sage

Forecast: Royal Insider shows up in a claimer for the first time and may have found his friends.  The Harty-trained gelding has been chasing infinitely tougher foes and has earned speed figures good enough to win at this level, so we’ll put him on top.  Palace Sage didn’t show much in his debut sprinting when facing high-priced maiden claimers at Del Mar last summer but returns as a first-time gelding and may be better than shown.  In a weak field, he’s a contender by default. Blue Skye Jade has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Velez.  He’ll probably try to employ gate-to-wire tactics. 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 19, 2019

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