The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Friday, April 26, 2019
Use: 2-Shanghai Bobby; 3-Brite Rivers
Forecast: Not much will be needed to win this bottom-rung maiden claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Brite Rivers missed by a neck up north in an all-weather event when 20 lengths (that’s correct) ahead of the third runner while earning a speed figure good enough to beat this field. This will be her first start on grass, but on pure bloodlines there’s no reason she won’t enjoy the surface switch. Low profile connections won’t hurt the price. Shanghai Bobby has the maiden-to-maiden claiming angle going for her and should find this group within her capabilities. She’s worth including on a ticket or two.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B=
Use: 2-Ruby Trust
Forecast: Ruby Trust drops to her lowest level ever, stretches out again, and need only run to her best speed figures to handle this modest assignment. She’s been primarily a sprinter during her 12-race career but against this group she should be able to handle the trip. By default, we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Bullion; 2-Mind Trick
Forecast: Bullion is shortening from a grass miler to an extended dirt sprint and exits an infinitely tougher race, so the son of Ghostzapper has much going from him in this maiden-claimer for 3-year-olds. With a repeat of his debut runner-up effort vs. straight maidens two runs back (he was seven clear of the rest), the Hollendorfer-trained colt will be hard to beat. Mind Trick also has several angles that catch the eye; he’s a route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt play in his second off a layoff for O’Neill (strong stats) while switching to Pratt, and also sports the blinkers-off maneuver that we’re partial to. These two are tough to separate so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Bullion on top.
RACE 4: Post 2:42 PT. Grade: B
Forecast: Hackberry was given a run in his debut and today should get serious while stretching out to a much more suitable trip in this maiden special weight affair over a mile. The son of English Channel continues to flash ability in the morning for Blacker and is insured a good ground-saving trip from the rail. With the expected forward move, he should be hard to handle in this below par race for the level. We’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 5: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Pig Iron; 7-Sea’s Journey
Forecast: Sea’s Journey has been knocking on the door and may final break through with a maiden win in this $50,000 state-bred seller. The son of Good Journey missed by a head in a similar affair here earlier this month and a repeat of that effort today should be good enough. The one to fear most is the third-place finisher in that same race, Pig Iron, who pressed the pace throughout and held on better than he has in his previous four career starts. With another forward move today, he’ll be right there. Let’s double the race in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Sea’s Journey on top in a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved in.
RACE 6: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Storming Lady; 5-Jaccat
Forecast: Jaccat lands Prat in her first start since last June and the daughter of Midnight Lute seems well-spotted to graduate in this maiden $75,000 sprint for older fillies and mares. She makes a positive barn switch, sports a healthy work pattern, and has numbers from last year that are good enough to win. Storming Lady remains above her claim level in a sign of confidence and returns to dirt. She may be the quickest of the speed and could stick around a long time if she can shake loose early. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll press a bit keying Jaccat on top.
RACE 7: Post 4:17 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Gliding By; 3-Ficanas
Forecast: Ficanas has displayed a devasting late kick in a pair of Hillside turf course wins and today will try to extend her streak to three while moving up a level in class and shortening to five furlongs on the flat track. She’s not particularly fast on speed figures but might be the type that does only what she has to. Gliding By is strictly the one to beat. She’s stronger on numbers than her main rival and is reunited with “win rider” Prat, so we suspect the Baltas-trained mare will go favored. Both should be included in your rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:47 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Hey Sequoia; 5-Fast Cotton
Forecast: Fast Cotton is winless in five starts over the Santa Anita main track, but this sharp class drop for $35,000 to $16,000 may allow the Koriner-trained gelding to regain his best form. Gryder should have him on or near the lead throughout. Hey Sequoia, a solid runner-up in a similar restricted (nw-3) affair last month, should fold into a good second flight, stalking spot and then have every chance from there. Let’s try to get by using just these two.