The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Friday, June 14, 2019
Use: 2-Sedamar; 3-Opus Won
Forecast: Sedamar is a deep closer is a race that promises to be quickly run early. If the pace comes up contested, the lightly-raced daughter of Richard’s Kid should be capable of producing the last run in what is her third start off a layoff. A couple of nice, easy, recent workouts over the training track should have her right on edge. Opus Won pressed hot splits and then found something extra late to win a maiden state-bred affair over this course and distance with a career-top speed figure in her first outing as a 3-year-old. The Baltas-trained daughter of Eddington retains Prat, and with any type of forward move should be dangerous right back. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Sedamar on top.
RACE 2: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Cheap Cheap Cheap; 6-Next Flight
Forecast: Next Flight was a well-beaten third in his debut, but it was a better than average race that he exits, so the son of Boisterous should produce enough of a forward move to graduate today in this abbreviated dash for state-bred juveniles. Miyadi has an excellent record with second-time starters, another reason to expect improvement. Cheap Cheap Cheap adds Lasix after flashing speed and then weakening late to wind up third in her debut. Though tackling colts today, the daughter of Square Eddie should be a major factor from start to finish. Let’s go with Next Flight slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 3: Post 2:06 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Higher Power; 2-Ritzy A. P.; 3-Liam the Charmer
Forecast: Higher Power is re-equipped with blinkers while landing the rail in this one mile allowance grass event and projects to benefit from a comfortable ground-saving, second-flight trip. Fifth when in too tough in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita last time out, the son of Medaglia d’Oro will be making his first career outing on grass and has the pedigree to like it. We’ll put him on top while hoping to get close to his 3-1 morning line. Ritzy A. P. has been away since last September and its possible he’s a race away, but the Blacker-trained horse has several back numbers that put him in the hunt and is reunited with “win rider” Prat. Liam the Charmer is back from an unsuccessful foreign trip to Qatar and should enjoy this return to conditioned allowance company in his first outing since February. Though this one mile trip might be considered too short for his best, the son of Smart Strike is, in fact, a perfect one-for-one at this distance. We’ll throw him in on a ticket or two.
RACE 4: Post 2:38 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Delta Forum; 7-Satchel Paige
Forecast: Satchel Paige has had much difficulty so far getting out of the gate, but if he can leave with his field today the son of Grazen will be well-positioned for breakthrough effort. From his cozy outside post position at this extended sprint trip, the D’Amato-trained colt should have no excuses. Delta Forum tries sprinting and dirt for the first time after failing at even money in a maiden grass miler last month. The Drysdale-trained gelding has the pedigree to enjoy these conditions, so improvement is possible. We’ll give the edge on top to ‘Paige but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 5: Post 3:12 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Carnivorous; 7-Yes I Am Free
Forecast: Yes I Am Free makes his California debut in this allowance optional claimer for new trainer Miyadi after displaying quality when winning a turf sprint stakes in Florida and then placing in an all-weather added money event at Woodbine in late April. The son of Uncaptured will be hard to beat at this abbreviated turf sprint trip if he reproduces his best form, and we suspect he will. Carnivorous was a sharp first-level allowance winner over the Golden Gate Fields all-weather surface last month while earning a career-top speed figure, one that makes him a solid contender if he can repeat that effort on grass. We’ll use him as a saver while strongly preferring Yes I Am Free on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:43 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mr Vargas; 6-Hot Sean
Forecast: Hot Sean returned off a 15-month layoff to register a sharp victory in a slightly softer conditioned allowance event in mid-May, and the Baffert-trained colt has trained steadily since to maintain his edge. Never off the board in nine career starts, the gelded son of Flatter has proven to be genuine and consistent. Mr Vargas, away since last August but training smartly for his comeback for Koriner, is fast on speed figures and fairly quick from the blocks. He’ll take them as far as he can. We’ll prefer Hot Sean on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 7: Post 4:14 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Kentan Road; 7-Gypsy Blu
Forecast: Gypsy Blue didn’t fire in her first try around two-turns, so the daughter of Papa Clem is back sprinting where she belongs and owns the type of closing kick that has proven to be very effective on grass. She’s a perfect one-for-one at this abbreviated five furlong distance but will need a little help up front to give her a chance to catch the best of speed types, Kentan Road. The latter sizzled over this course and distance when outrunning a lesser field gate-to-wire while earning a powerful, career-top number. If she doesn’t “bounce” off that race, the Sadler-trained mare might never look back.
RACE 8: Post 4:45 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Thanks; 6-Zillinda
Forecast: The finale is a modest maiden $25,000 main track miler for older fillies and mares. To put things in perspective, 18-race maiden Zillinda looks on paper to be a standout. She’s the type of short-priced runner that you always try to beat, but in this race she may have finally found her friends. Thanks, in the money in three of her last four starts, is slow on numbers but at least she tries and probably is the one to fear most.