The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Friday, May 3, 2019
Use: 2-Georgie Hyphen; 5-Captivate
Forecast: Georgie Hyphen disappointed up north when favored in a tougher starter’s allowance race last month but his effort over this course in a similar restricted $25,000 claimer two runs back should be good enough to win today’s opener. The Miller-trained gelding is reunited with Figueroa and likely will draft into an ideal ground-saving spot. Captivate is the 9/5 morning line favorite despite being unproven both in two-races and on grass. However, the Puype-trained gelding drops to his lowest level ever, projects to being the controlling speed, and is strong in the speed figure department. We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two, with preference on top to Georgie Hyphen
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Meritocracy; 5-Appolina; 7-Fashion Dream
Forecast: Appolina has a suspicious pattern – a class drop following a decent runner-up debut effort – but the Baffert-trained filly is plenty quick and might be able to outlast this maiden-claiming group for sophomore fillies. She’ll be our top pick but certainly not a single. Fashion Dream is a sneaky first-timer form the Miller barn with a good recent gate drill and a live rider (Pedroza) for this particular stable. She certainly won’t have to be a world beater to win at first asking against this group. Meritocracy has numbers that make her competitive and really won’t have to improve much to graduate. She makes a positive jockey switch to Bejarano and should be within range throughout.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bully for Eric; 3-Railman
Forecast: Bully for Eric is an improving Phoenix invader with numbers that fit at this level. This is a realistic spot for the Maryland-bred colt, who should be part of the pace throughout. Railman broke his maiden with a career-top effort over this track and distance last month and appears dangerous right back. In a five-runner field, these are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Colonial Creed; 7-Truffalino
Forecast: Colonial Creed finished a close-up fifth (beaten 1 ½ lengths) in the Providencia S.-G3 over this course and distance last month and returns to the first-level allowance ranks for easier pickings. The daughter of Jimmy Creed projects to be the controlling speed and will be tough to catch with anything close to her best race. Truffalino, also exiting the Providencia, finished only a neck behind ‘Creed when sixth in that race. She’ll need some help up front but has rising numbers and seems primed for another forward move.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Littlebigamedal has much in his favor in this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming sprint. The Sherman-trained colt is comfortably drawn outside in this five-runner affair and earned a speed figure two races back in open company that would obliterate today’s competition. At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower he’s a logical rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Buckys Pick; 3-Passionate Reward; 4-Ultimate Bango
Forecast: Ultimate Bango has been away since last fall but a steady series of workouts should have him fit enough for a major effort in a competitive five-furlong turf sprint that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. He’s still eligible to this first-level allowance affair because he was disqualified from a win in his last outing over a mile on this course in October. He’s just as effective if not more so at this distance. Passionate Reward returns to grass and looks the most dangerous of the closing types. There should be enough early speed in here to compliment his style. Buckys Pick crushed a $25,000 claiming field on dirt last month and earned a number that makes him a threat right back, especially since he’s always preferred grass to the main track. Let’s slightly prefer Ultimate Bango on top and have a few extra tickets keying him in rolling exotic play.
RACE 7: Post 4:15 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Hailey Rachele; 4-Don’teatmycookies; 5-Whirling
Forecast: Whirling adds blinkers (she’s worn them once before without success), drops to a realistic spot (but above her claim level), returns to dirt, and shortens from a mile to an abbreviated sprint. The daughter of Twirling Candy likes this main track (both of her career wins have come here) so we’re expecting her to be along in time. Don’teatmycookies seems the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as she can. She’s run well for this jockey in the past and though away since late January has won off a layoff in the past. Hailey Rachele drops again in class while seeking her proper level. She’s been sparingly raced of late but has several speed figures from last year that are good enough to win in this league, so we’ll include her on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.
RACE 8: Post 4:45 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-T Bones Trick; 9-Proud Pedro
Forecast: T Bones Trick was a bit green in his debut but after trailing to the top of the stretch took hold and finished with purpose when a close fourth in a similar maiden special weight affair over this course and distance last month. The barn has an excellent record with second-time starters, so if this son of Midnight Lute improves as much as expected he should be along in time. Proud Pedro closed a huge gap when second in his U.S. debut on the same day (but not same race) that T Bones Trick debuted (both earned similar speed figures). He, too, should improve with the race behind him and with a recent bullet workout the French-bred colt appears to be moving in the right direction. We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two, with preference on top to T Bones Trick.