The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Friday, May 31, 2019
Use: 3-Outlaw; 7-Vermeer
Forecast: Outlaw was just disqualified out of a two-turn win for M25,000; today he turns back to a sprint, is raised to $40,000, and has very little to beat. The Miyadi-trained gelding owns a decided edge in the speed figure department so if he runs straight and true he shouldn’t have a problem with the class hike. Vermeer is much slower on numbers than Outlaw but has plenty of room to improve for Hollendorfer and gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy jockey Velez. The son of Malibu Moon projects to be part of the pace throughout. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Outlaw.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Take a Leap
Forecast: Take a Leap was more than three lengths clear of the rest when a strong runner-up in a better-than-par race for the level last month and a repeat that effort today will be more than good enough to beat this moderate starter’s allowance group. She likes to settle and then produce a run and in a race with plenty of speed to compliment her style the Ortiz-trained filly should be along in plenty of time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Bam Bam Again; 3-Fast Enough
Forecast: State-bred maiden juveniles sprint four and one-half furlongs in the third race, a wide-open affair consisting of nothing but first-time starters. Fast Enough shows a bullet half-mile gate work in 48 1/5 (best of 83) earlier this month and before that was impressive in a series of slower drills without ever being asked for speed. He’s a good looking son of Eddington and appears fit and ready to score for a barn that can get them ready first crack out of the box. Bam Bam Again has shown a bit of ability in the morning and may have enough early speed to use his rail post to good advantage. You can use him on a ticket or two as a back-up, but the main push both in rolling exotic play and in the straight pool goes to Fast Enough.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Dallas Skyline; 6-Rumpus Cat
Forecast: The fourth race is a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming grass miler with two main contenders. Dallas Skyline returned off a very long vacation (3 ½ years) to fire a huge shot when second vs. similar over this course and distance last month and shows two easy workouts since. The Puype barn has powerful stats with second-off-layoff runners, so we’re expecting the Scat Daddy gelding to be fitter and sharper this time around. If so, he’ll be hard to beat. Rumpus Cat has been earning minor awards in tougher first-level allowance company recently and this drop in class combined with the always-powerful blinkers off angle makes him the one to fear most. A bullet half-mile workout last week is another positive factor. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press keying Dallas Skyline on top.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Sapphire Kid
Forecast: This first-level allowance main track miler for fillies and mares drew just five runners, with Sapphire Kid clearly the top pick. She’s been competing on turf recently but has had success on this main track in the past, and after being overmatched in the Fran’s Valentine Stakes last time out she’s back where she belongs in this modest affair for the level. Bug boy Velez should have her settled in the second flight before pushing the button approaching the top of the lane. We’ll use her as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Acclimate has been a miler most of his career but has rising speed figures and the proper style to improve at this nine furlong distance. The D’Amato-trained gelding has good tactical speed in a race that projects to be slowly-run early, and two of his three career victories have been accomplished over the local lawn. Pereira stays aboard and knows him well, so let’s make the son of Acclamation a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Satrapa; 5-Wild Bean
Forecast: Satrapa hasn’t been out since last September at Los Alamitos but the son of Square Eddie has looked especially sharp for his comeback for Palma (superior with layoff runners) so we’re expecting the lightly-raced gelding to return better than he left. He’s a quick, compact gelding and seems likely to be on or near the lead throughout. Wild Bean flunked his two-turn (and grass) test when unplaced in the Silky Sullivan Stakes up north last month but is back where he’s most comfortable (sprinting on dirt) and tackling first-level allowance state-bred foes, so we’re expecting a bounce back effort. The Hofmans-trained gelding switches to Prat, is drawn outside the main speed, and should have every chance from a pace-prompting position. We’ll prefer Satrapa on top but double the race in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 9-Kris’ Wild Kat
Forecast: Kris’ Wild Kat was a voided claim when flashing speed and then fading in a $25,000 non-winners of two Hillside sprint in mid-February, but he returns over five furlongs on the main turf course and, assuming he’s healthy, should be most effective at this abbreviated trip. Two recent bullet workouts on the training track point him out, so we’re expecting the Baltas-trained gelding to handle this assignment despite his extreme outside draw. We’ll use him in the straight pool and as a rolling exotic single.