The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Monday, May 27, 2019
Use: 4-Ameerah B; 8-Katsaros
Forecast: Trainer John Sadler holds the aces in the Monday opener, with two major players that should improve following promising debut performances in a common race. Katsaros was given a run when fourth in a five furlong maiden turf sprint last month and should greatly appreciate this two-turn mile trip based on running style and pedigree (Curlin). She’ll be doing her best work late, while stablemate Ameerah B, an excellent second with a less than ideal trip in that same heat, projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Katsaros will be the better price of the two, so we’ll put her slightly on top, but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Raneem failed at odds-on in her only start last summer and was stopped on, so we’ll assume she’s better than the outing shows and expect that she’ll run to her good works this time around for the Baffert barn. The daughter of Fed Biz projects as the controlling speed despite the rail, and with just four rivals seems likely to roll all the way to the wire. We’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Shining Through; 6-Jasikan
Forecast: Jasikan was off slowly, raced wide, loomed a threat and then finished as best he could in a promising U.S. debut for the Sadler barn in the Singletary Stakes over this course and distance last month. He drops into a first-level allowance affair, switches to Joel Rosario, and should be able to produce the last run. Shining Through is progressing nicely with experience and is strictly the one to beat after finishing a strong second in the same race Jasikan exits. A recent bullet six furlong workout over the training track indicates the son of Malibu Moon is primed for another strong effort. We’ll prefer Jasikan on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Studly Perfection; 6-Hey Sequoia
Forecast: Studly Perfection is a devout front-runner and will inherit his preferred trip from a favorable inside draw in a field lacking in early speed. Back from the Bay Area following a bullet recent six furlong workout and returning to conventional dirt, the son of Majesticperfection always has preferred the Santa Anita main track and should be tough to run down. Hey Sequoia has the blinkers-off angle that always catches our eye, switches to Prat, and has several back speed figures that make him a strong fit in this league. We’ll include the Marquez-trained colt in our rolling exotics but prefer Studly Perfection on top.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Achira; 3-Tiny Tina
Forecast: Tiny Tina has won three of her last four starts and has numbers that continue to rise with each outing. Her style suggests this nine furlong trip will be well within her range, and she’s versatile enough to cope with any kind of race flow. Prat stays aboard and fits her best, so let’s put the daughter of Paddy O’Prado solidly on top. Achira is worth consideration as well; the veteran English Channel mare is quite effective on the lead and if allowed to show her early speed from the rail she could grab control early and prove to be an elusive target.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Chasin Lucas; 6-Wandering Patrol
Forecast: Wandering Patrol was beaten at 7/5 in a similar state-bred first-level allowance sprint last month and was vanned off, but the daughter of Square Eddie has returned to work very sharply, so we’ll assume she’s in good shape. The Cecil-trained filly figures to enjoy an ideal -pace-stalking trip from her cozy outside draw, so we’ll give her a big chance to make amends. Chasin Lukas is worth including at least as a back-up. She returns to the main track and actually finished more than three lengths clear of ‘Patrol when they faced each other in mid-April. In a race without much pace, she could get brave on the front end.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Ollie’s Candy; 4-Vasilika
Forecast: Vasilika owns this turf course and will be a short price to improve her record over the local lawn to 11 victories from 12 starts. Obviously, she won’t offer any wagering value at the short price she’s certain to be. You may want to protect with a ticket or two with Ollie’s Candy, an extremely talented filly making her first start since missing by a neck in the Del Mar Oaks last August. A lightly-rated daughter of Candy Ride with three wins and two seconds in five career starts, she’s been working like she’s fit and ready, but returning against Vasilika is an extremely challenging task.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Blitzkrieg; 5-Gift Box
Forecast: Gift Box has won his last three starts, including a victory over McKinzie in the Big ‘Cap in March over this track and distance (and McKinzie has subsequently franked the form with a terrific win in the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs). The 6-year-old son of Twirling Candy has only 15 career starts but has never been better and should continue his winning ways at a short price. Blitzkrieg tries dirt for the first time, is bred to like it, and has trained well over the main track as well. If he can reproduce his grass form, he might give ‘Box some competition, though you have to wonder if 10 furlongs might be stretching his limit.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade:
Use: 2-Sharp Samurai; 5-Catapult
Forecast: Sharp Samurai, arguably the top-rated turf performer in the West, returns off a nearly nine month layoff without the benefit of a prep in the Grade-1 Shoemaker Mile. However, he has a history of firing fresh and the work tab indicates that trainer Mark Glatt has him fit and ready. Catapult was an unlucky second (beaten a nose while taking the worst of the head-bob) in the Kilroe Mile-G1 in late March and if runs back to that race today he’ll be the one to fear most. The son of Kitten’s Joy likes to lag and then blast home, but in a field without a whole lot of pace his task won’t be easy. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Sharp Samurai on top.
RACE 10: Post 5:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Adens Dream; 8-Shane Zain; 9-Dueling
Forecast: Adens Dream was in a tad too tough when a close fourth behind Soul Streit in a similar first-level optional claimer last month, but this group should be within his range. Strong in the speed figure department and a winner over this track and distance two runs back, the veteran Wildcat Heir gelding is reunited with “win rider” Rosario and and should be part of the pace every step of the way. Shane Zain won a better-than-par starter’s allowance sprint two runs back and then faded in a two-turn mile affair, so he’s back sprinting where he belongs, and his best effort should put him right there. Dueling may be prepping for longer in his first start since chasing home Improbable in the Los Alamitos Futurity-G1 in December, but the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained colt has trained exceedingly well for his return and could be set to fire a big shot fresh under Prat. Use him a saver, at least.