The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Saturday, June 1, 2019
Single: 1-Aussie Fox
Forecast: Aussie Fox is overdue for a win and gets his best chance yet in this maiden-claiming $50,000 turf miler. Certainly not one to totally trust (this will be his 14th start), the Mullins-trained gelding nevertheless lands the good rail and should have plenty of pace to set things up for his closing kick. With good racing luck he should be along in time, so let’s make the son of Lonhro a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Ciao Luna; 4-Tiz Toffee
Forecast: This $16,000 claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares drew just five starters with two main contenders. Tiz Toffee is clearly the top pick in her first-off-the-claim for high-percentage connections following sharp win vs. restricted (nw-2) $12,500 sellers here last month. She’s picking up 8 lbs. today but in her present form seems capable of repeating on the raise. Ciao Luna, a $16,000 Puype claim last month, turns back to a sprint after fading as the favorite. She seems certain to improve, and Gryder will have her running on strongly late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Tiz Toffee.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Tough It Out; 4-Snazzy Dresser
Forecast: Tough It Out returns from the Bay Area after finishing second before winning via disqualification a $40,000 turf claimer that earned a solid number, one that makes him tough to beat right back in this starter’s allowance affair over nine furlong on grass. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the veteran gelding will enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from the rail, and in a five-runner field should have no difficulty securing room when set down for the drive. Snazzy Dresser will be the controlling speed and have every chance to take his rivals gate-to-wire. Nine furlongs might be stretching his limit, but if not policed he’ll take them a very long way. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Tough It Out on top.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Comical Ghost
Forecast: Comical Ghost, a son of Ghostzapper from the terrific race mare Hystericalady, finally makes it to the post in June of his 3-year-old season but the wait might be worth it based on his exceptional series of workouts. The Baffert-trained colt was ready to run during the winter but had to be stopped on; he was Triple Crown nominated but now will aim to make his mark during the second half of season. First things first, though, and that’s a debut maiden win, so in what appears to a very competitive six furlong maiden we’ll make him straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Silver Summer; 6-Juggles; 8-Foster Boi
Forecast: Foster Boi missed by a neck when second as the favorite under similar conditions last month but seems capable of making amends in a race in which the projected race flow should complement his closing style. His numbers have risen with each start, so with another forward move the D’Amato-trained sophomore should be able to produce the last run. Silver Summer beat a seasoned $25,000 claiming field over this course and distance last month when able to establish a clear lead, winning with a speed figure that should make him dangerous right back in this first-level allowance affair for California-bred runners. All three of his career victories have come over the local lawn; however; he’s most effective on the front end and he may have to work a bit harder this time to gain his coveted trip. Juggles stretches out after breaking his maiden over five furlongs on grass in what has proven to be a productive race. He’s no slam dunk to be as effective around two turns, but as the old handicapping axiom tells us, if he’s ever going to get the trip it’ll be in his first try.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Morning Snow; 4-King Jack
Forecast: Morning Snow, a $300,000 Timonium 2-year-old in training purchase last year, makes his U.S. debut for the Baffert barn after doing pretty much everything asked of him in a series of impressive recent workouts. The son of Morning Line might not be blazingly quick and thus could have a bit of trouble from the rail, but if he can secure clear sailing he should be hard to beat. King Jack, another first-timer, goes for the always-potent Hollendorfer-Smith team and drilled five furlongs in a blazing 58 1/5 seconds from the gate (fastest of nine) last month to indicate fitness and ability. He’s a Jimmy Creed colt bred for speed and appears to have plenty of it. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Morning Snow on top.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Lady Prancealot; 4-Holly Hundy; 6-Maxim Rate
Forecast: This evenly-matched band of turf fillies seems to take turns beating each other; perhaps it’s Lady Prancealot’s time to shine. The late-running Irish-bred 3-year-old should have enough pace in this field to make her late kick effective, so we’ll put her slightly on top while also including in our rolling exotics Maxim Mate and Holly Hundy. The former just won the one-mile Senorita Stakes over a mile and before that was nosed out in the Providencia at this nine furlong trip, so though she’s picking up 4 lbs. the daughter of Exchange Rate remains the likely choice and one to beat. ‘Hundy seeks her third straight score but loses Desormeaux (who opts for Maxim Rate) and is stretching out from five to nine furlongs, so this trip might be out of her range. Still, the daughter of Yes It’s True has a touch of quality so we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Paradise Woods; 4-Tapped
Forecast: Something unforeseen will have to happen for Paradise Woods to get beat in today’s Santa Maria S.-G2 based on her 10-length romp (with a triple-digit Beyer figure) in the Santa Margarita S.-G2 in late April. Perhaps it was a coincidence (or maybe not) but her last race was her first under Smith, and she really seemed to respond beautifully to the Hall of Famer’s touch. Of course, she’ll be unplayable at a very short price. For those seeking an exacta partner, consider Tapped, who was impressive when a fast-finishing second in an overnight race last month in her first outing since October of 2017. She’ll be picking up the pieces late.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Stop Analyzing; 5-Apple Arch; 10-Pricing
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for high-priced maiden claiming fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Use as many as you can afford to. Pricing chased straight maidens in her debut and seems likely to improve with that bit of experience coupled with a drop in class. Gryder stays aboard the daughter of Australia, who should have clear sailing and every chance from her outside draw. Apple Arch is another with the straight maiden-to-maiden claiming angle and ran decently at this abbreviated sprint trip on grass last fall at November when finishing a close fifth vs. tougher foes. With a repeat of that race today she’ll be right there. Stop Analyzing flashed some speed before fading in an off-the-turfer last month; she’s in for a tag today and gets her chance on grass, so the Miller-trained filly is worth including somewhere in your exotics.