The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Saturday, June 22, 2019
Single: Bobs Blues Man
Forecast: This is a reluctant single; it’s either take a stand with Bobs Blues Man or spread the race, since if it’s not him, it could be anybody. The Can the Man gelding finished a respectable fifth in his debut in one of the hottest juvenile races anywhere this year here (the first three finishers came back to win, and Fore Left, who won the race, subsequently went to New York and captured a stakes). However, low percentage connections make backing with confidence difficult, especially in a field filled with question marks. Spread, single, or simply pass the race; there are better opportunities later on.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Zuzanna; 7-An Eddie Surprise
Forecast: Zuzanna is vastly improved since joining the Hess barn, having won twice and finishing second in three starts since being claimed for a paltry $8,000 last fall. Most recently the daughter of Wilburn finished a game runner-up in a strong first-level allowance event while earning a career-top speed figure. Today, she returns to her preferred distance of one mile, retains Desormeaux, and should draft into a lovely second flight, stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. An Eddie Surprise is another fresh from a career-top performance and appears primed for another top effort. She has produced a forward move according to her speed figures in each of her last four outings and has been first or second in nine of 11 career starts over the Santa Anita turf course. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Zuzanna given very slight preference on top.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Starr of Quality; 4-Coco Kisses
Forecast: None of the four starters in this $200,000 main track mile stakes for state-bred fillies and mares managed to hit the board in their last starts, so this event probably is best left alone. Starr of Quality was virtually eased when beaten almost 40 lengths in the Santa Margarita S.-G2 in late April, but this represents a considerably easier task, so the Spawr-trained mare seems certain to bounce back. With five wins from 12 career starts over the local main track, the daughter of First Dude truly qualifies as a horse for course. Coco Kisses should be the controlling speed, and if she can shake loose without pressure the Bonde-trained filly might get brave. She’s questionable around two-turns and not particularly fast on numbers, but just in case she gets loose on the lead we’ll include her as a back-up or a saver, but nothing more.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Outlaw; 5-Royal Insider
Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance going just two-deep in the fourth race, a restricted (nw-2) turf claiming miler for older horses. Royal Insider isn’t particularly fast on numbers, but he’s lightly-raced and improving and retains Bejarano. In his last start, the son of Divine Park finished a solid runner-up in a comparable starter allowance event and today returns to his claim level for the money run. Outlaw crushed a very weak field in a confidence-building 11-length maiden claiming romp sprinting on dirt last month; today he’ll most likely try gate-to-wire tactics stretching out again from a comfortable inside draw. He’s suspect at this trip and will have to deal with fellow pace-forcer Diamond Blitz early on, but another forward move for this once highly-regarded son of Violence is a reasonable possibility.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Posterize; 3-Clem Labine
Forecast: Posterize will have this group over a barrel with a repeat of his fast, highly-rated, runaway state-bred maiden win here last month. The son of Shackleford retains Franco, shows three easy workouts since raced to be kept on edge, and should fire another big shot. Clem Labine is considerably slower on speed figures but won at first asking up north despite a wide trip, and he could easily be better than the line gives him credit for. We’ll use him on a ticket or two while strongly preferring Posterize on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Our Silver Oak; 4-Irish Heatwave; 7-Desmond Doss
Forecast: Our Silver Oak and Irish Heatwave finished noses apart in the Silky Sullivan Stakes over the Golden Gate Fields turf course in late April; they meet again under similar conditions and are almost impossible to separate. ‘Oak draws the rail and should enjoy a nice covered up, ground-saving trip, while ‘Heatwave already is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita lawn and recently turned in a bullet six furlong dirt workout to indicate he’s right on edge for a repeat score. Desmond Doss is somewhat intriguing and is worth including as well. The son of Grazen should love this nine furlong trip and his recent maiden win in just his second career start charts quite well here despite the class hike.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Valencia; 4-Road Rager; 7-Message
Forecast: Road Rager won a similar maiden sprint last month but, in a somewhat controversial decision, was disqualified for drifting out in the stretch. It was a decent race (the runner-up was more than eight clear of the rest) and if repeated today might be good enough to earn her a diploma. However, we’ll put Message on top., The Baffert-trained filly, unplaced in her debut last summer at Del Mar and then turned out, has been working like a much better filly this time around and appears fit and ready following a bullet gate work 10 days while in company with the stakes-winning Cruel Intention (entered in today’s 9th race). The daughter of Warrior’s Reward, a $300,000 Ocala April sale purchase last year, remains well-regarded by her connections and should be able to show her best stuff today. Also worth some consideration is Valencia, a daughter of Tapit making her debut for the Prat-Mandella team with a healthy series of workouts on her resume. She doesn’t act in the morning like a quick type, and the rail post is of major concern but nonetheless she’s worth including as a back-up or saver.
RACE 8: Post 4:36 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Ollie’s Candy; 2-Storm the Hill; 3-Simply Breathless
Forecast: The main contenders drew the inside three post positions in this nine furlong graded stakes turf affair for fillies and mares. Ollie’s Candy was rusty in her comeback in a very tough spot and was unable to land a blow when seventh, beaten five lengths, behind Vasilika in the Gamely S.-G1 last month. She’s returned to work very for Sadler, faces an easier assignment, and seems sure to improve a bunch with the switch to Desormeaux, who rode her to victory last year in the Summertime Oaks. She can be expected to show improved tactical speed from the rail. Storm the Hill makes her seasonal debut after an extended vacation following her sharp win down the Hill in the Ken Maddy Stakes last November. We’ve always considered her to be more effective sprinting than routing, but she won this race – the Wilshire Stakes – over this course and distance last year and based on her workouts she appears fit and ready for a big effort for D’Amato. Simply Breathing, in her U. S debut, won the Golden Poppy Stakes up north in pleasing fashion, but better will be needed today. The Drysdale-trained English import retains Prat and will be bearing down in the final furlong, and though unproven in graded stakes company could be this good with a forward move.
RACE 9: Post 5:09 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-McKale; 7-Cruel Intention
Forecast: Baffert holds this aces in this entry-level allowance sprint, with the unbeaten stakes winning Cruel Intentions making his first start since taking the Golden State Juvenile Stakes last November from the talented Galilean in a race that earned a sensational speed figure. If he returns as well as he left, the son of Smiling Tiger will outclass this field, and three successive bullet workouts indicates he’s retained all of his speed. McKale also is returning off a layoff – nearly a year in his case – while making his first start as a gelding and his first without blinkers. He showed good, consistent form last year, won his debut (so you know he can fresh) and has trained very well in his own right. Preference on top goes to Cruel Intention but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 10: Post 5:39 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mo Forza; 10-Parsimony
Forecast: The finale is a maiden turf miler that has two main contenders in the 12-runner lineup. Mo Forza was given an educational run when a closing third in his debut sprinting on grass earlier this month and should improve considerably with that bit of experience behind him. The son of Uncle Mo draws the good rail, retains Prat, adds Lasix, stretches out to a distance he’s certainly should enjoy, and shows an easy half-mile workout at San Luis Rey Downs since raced. Parsimony is an 11-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust, but the O’Neill-trained colt just finished an excellent second in the Cinema Stakes while earning a career top number. The question is, can he turn in two alike? We’ll sink or swim using just these two in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Mo Forza.