The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, April 28, 2019
Single: 6-Violette Szabo
Forecast: Violette Szabo, making only her second career start, flashed excellent speed in the Evening Jewel Stakes before understandably weakening late when winding up fourth in her first start since September. The daughter of Grazen returns to the maiden ranks, lands the comfortable outside draw, and should be a very short price to earn her diploma. She’s a logical rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Play Hard to Get; 5-Dukes Up
Forecast: Dukes Up was a respective third in a $25,000 claimer earlier this month and drops to the $16,000 category today while still well above his claim level. With the switch to Prat, the Glatt-trained son of Include looks capable of producing the last run. Play Hard to Get tries dirt for only the second time in his 38-race career – he was an okay but non-threatening fifth vs. tougher in that race more than a year ago while earning a decent number – but he’s never been big on winning. This is, however, is his lowest level ever and in a five-running field the veteran gelding should be competitive. These are the two we’ll include in our rolling exotics while otherwise passing the race.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Market Sentiment; 6-Jimmy the Juice
Forecast: Jimmy the Juice was pitched too high when a well-beaten fifth vs. $25,000 foes earlier this month but in this league the Saldana-trained gelding seems capable of repeating his solid win two races back. He’s a late-running sprinter with an excellent record over the local main track and in a below par field seems like the logical top pick. Papa Turf has six career victories – all at Santa Anita – and appears to be the most dangerous of the speed-types. He’s worth including on a ticket or two.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Suprema; 5-Gott a Be Lucky
Forecast: Suprema was almost six lengths clear of the rest when runner-up in a maiden $30,000 affair just seven days ago. She’s raised to the $50,000 level today off short rest for the Desormeaux brothers but has so little to beat in this five-runner field that the daughter of Strong Mandate will likely be the favorite. Gotta Be Lucky is turning back from a two-turn grass affair and projects to enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip outside. On numbers, she’s a major contender, so we’ll toss her in as well.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Shining Through; 4-Big Scott Daddy
Forecast: Big Scott Daddy was 4/5 in the off-the-turf Pasadena Stakes but didn’t cope with the sloppy track and wound up fourth, beaten 12 lengths. Today he’ll get his first chance on grass, and as a son of Scat Daddy he’s certainly bred for it. In a race with little to no early speed signed on, the Puype-trained colt should be comfortably placed throughout. Shining Through missed by a nose in a strong first-level allowance race over this course and distance earlier this month and has trained steadily. Prat stays aboard and will have this son of Malibu Moon doing his best work from off the pace. We’ll prefer Big Scott Daddy on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Ground Attack; 6-Oh Man
Forecast: Oh Man seeks his third straight win and today is protected by new trainer Miyadi, who claimed the 4-year-old gelding out of a seven-length romp vs. $16,000 foes over this track and distance in early March. Not much more will be needed for the son of Angus to extend the streak. Ground Attack, sparingly raced throughout his career and today making his first start since January, is solid in the speed figure department but may be most effective as a late-running sprinter. Most recently he was a beaten choice in a similar affair without mishap. We’ll use him on a ticket or two as a saver.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Hunt; 5-Bolo
Forecast: Hunt shows up in a conditioned allowance race for what his connections hope will be a confidence-building win. The 7-year-old gelding isn’t quite what he used to be, but his recent fifth place finish (while on the lead in a change in tactics) in the Kilroe Mile-G1 wasn’t bad under the circumstance. He’s reunited with “win rider” Prat and should get the patient ride he needs. Bolo shows up as a first-time gelding but has been away since June of 2017. He’s a past-classer with an okay work tab and may be a race away, but he could find himself on the lead in what projects to be a slowly-run race. We’ll include him on our ticket as a back-up.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade:
Single: 2-Cool Bobby; 3-California Journey
Forecast: Cool Bobby has much in his favor in this first-level allowance middle distance main track affair. The Eurton-trained colt has looked especially sharp in the morning since a runner-up effort to Solomini in early March, removes blinkers, and should produce another forward move in his third start off a layoff. California Journey is worth including as well; the Hollendorfer-trained gelding has rising speed figures and good tactical speed in a race that projects to have modest early fractions. He’ll have every chance from pace-setting or stalking position.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-English Royalty; 4-Chasin Lucas; 7-Moonshine Annie
Forecast: This grass grab bag for state-bred entry-level allowance fillies and mares over five furlongs requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to get by going three-deep. Moonshine Annie has finished in the money in her last four and is turning back from a couple of two-turn races. Perhaps most effective sprinting, the Glatt-trained mare will need racing luck plus some help up front but given a good trip may be capable of producing the last run. English Royalty isn’t fast on numbers, but she’s won five of 10 career outings and will be making her first start on grass after being claimed out of a $25,000 all-weather sprint up north in which she missed by a nose. Chasin Lucas has the kind of early speed that will make her dangerous at this five-furlong trip, though her only prior grass try last fall wasn’t inspiring. She might be a better type now.