Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, June 2, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, June 2, 2019

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Snappish; 6-Big Headed Baby; 7-Mo Forza

Forecast: Snappish didn’t get the best of trips and wasn’t knocked about when needing the experience in his debut over this course and distance last month but should get serious today in this five furlong turf sprint for older maidens.  He probably doesn’t exit the strongest of heats, but this English-bred son of Bated Brush has the potential to be a decent sort for Powell.  Big Headed Baby and Mo Forza are a two debut runners from San Luis Rey Downs representing stranger danger.  The former, a New York-bred son of Mission Impazible, has trained quite well for O’Neill while 'Forza, a son of Uncle Mo, goes for the always-potent Miller/Prat team and shows a recent bullet five-furlong workout to indicate some talent.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while giving the colt with experience – Snappish – the edge on top.

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-D K’s Crown; 5-Raging Whiskey

Forecast: Raging Whiskey has the benefit of a prior run in this abbreviated main track sprint for two-year-olds, and after breaking slowly and then finding his best stride too late to wind up in a dead-heat for third the Mendez-trained colt should be primed for a significant forward move.  The son of Bourbon Courage recently drilled a bullet three furlongs from the gate in 36 seconds, so he’s likely to break a lot better today than he did in his debut.  This stable has another entrant in here that is worth a mention, the first-timer D K’s Crown, who shows a 47 flat half-mile gate drill (fastest of 34) that catches the eye.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but then press both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play with Raging Whiskey on top.

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​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Accountability

Forecast:Accountability drops from a much tougher state-bred stakes into a restricted (non-winners in 2019) $35,000 claimer, and though just 1-for-15 in the last two years the Becerra-trained son of Acclamation seems well spotted for a major effort.  Two of his three career victories have been accomplished over the local lawn, and on based on recent speed figures this appears to be a group he should be able to handle.  In a somewhat shallow six-runner field, he’s 5/2 on the morning line and at that price we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

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​​​RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: X

Single: 5-Phantom Boss

Forecast: Phantom Boss ran a winning race in defeat when second by a neck while five clear of the rest in his debut last month, a similar effort today should make him difficult to beat.  The relatively quick turnaround (two weeks) is a bit of a  concern, but his six rivals in this state-bred dash don’t appear too imposing.  At even money on the morning line the son of Shackleford will be too short to consider in the straight pool so we’ll just use him as a no-value rolling exotic single.

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​​RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Gregorian Chant

Forecast: Gregorian Chant is undefeated in two career starts, a maiden all-weather affair in Ireland in December and a first-level allowance event over this turf course and distance in his U.S. debut last month.  He just might be the best 3-year-old turf prospect in the West, and he’ll get his chance to show it today, but won’t have the luxury of breaking slowly and then veering out sharply to the outside fence as he did in his most recent win.  Blinkers are being added, so if the English-bred son of Gregorian leaves with his field and minds his manners he should be able to extend his perfect streak to three.  As the second choice on the morning line at 3-1, the D’Amato-trained colt is a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

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​​RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Midcourt; 3-Street Class; 6-Justin’s Quest

Forecast: ​ This maiden main track miler looks fairly wide open and requires a spread.  We’ll try to survive and advance going three-deep.  Justin’s Quest didn’t run a yard when even money in a similar affair in February, but he’ll be making his first start as a gelding, so considerable improvement is possible.  Prat stays aboard for Baltas, and a repeat of his race before last probably will good enough to win.  Street Class launches a comeback for the Mike McCarthy barn, which has excellent stats with layoff runners.  The work tab is steady if not flashy so it’s possible he’s a race away, but the son of Street Sense earned a speed figure over this track and distance in a runner-up effort last fall that puts him in the picture.  Midcourt, a distant second in the same race Justin’s Quest exits, should find himself on or near the lead throughout, and in what will be just his fourth career start the son of Midnight Lute probably has further improvement in him. 

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RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Persephone; 7-Seaside Dancer; 10-Heathers Grey

Forecast: Here’s another contentious affair, a starter optional claimer over a mile on grass for 3-year-old fillies.  We’ll use three and hope that’s enough.  Seaside Dancer and Persephone finished one-two in a similar affair over this course and distance last month and meet again; ‘Dancer won that race by better than a length to upset Persephone, who was 3/5 going in.  Both are capable of winning depending upon favorable pace and trips.  We’ll alsotoss in Heathers Grey, a maiden $50,000 claiming winner in her first try around two turns and on grass last month.  She earned a competitive number in the process but must overcome her extreme outside draw.  Tread lightly here.  

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​​RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Uno Trouble Maker; 5-Violette Szabo

Forecast: The 7/5 morning line favorite Uno Trouble Maker seeks her fourth straight win – her previous three victories all earned rising speed figures – and with another forward move today the Spawr-trained filly should be tough to beat, rail and all.  If she breaks cleanly she’ll likely be the speed of the speed.  All five of her career wins have come over the Santa Anita main track.  The lightly raced and improving Grazen filly Violette Szabo, fresh from a fairly impressive maiden win despite racing greenly through the stretch, lands the cozy outside post and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position and have every chance.  She’ll need a boost in the speed figure department to worry ‘Maker but could easily have it in her.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-The Nightingale; 7-Claudelle; 10-Honeyfromthesouth

Forecast: The finale is a five-furlong turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies that offers a few possibilities.  At this shortened trip Honeyfromthesouth could be hard to catch.  The switch to turf shouldn’t be a bother (she’s a granddaughter of Giant’s Causeway) and the Baffert-trained filly was eight lengths clear of the rest when second in a fast, highly-rated dirt sprint last month.  The negative?  She’s been beaten as the odds-on favorite in each of her last four starts.  Can you trust her?  Claudelle turned in a career top speed figure when missing in a photo in a Hillside turf sprint earlier this meeting.  The daughter of Candy Ride may have found a home on turf and should be within striking range throughout, ready to pounce if ‘South falters.  The Nightingale, a first-timer by Tapit from the Hollendorfer barn, lands Prat and could be a live item, though her dirt track workouts are moderate.  She’s probably worth including on a ticket or two. 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, June 2, 2019

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