The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, May 19, 2019
Use: 7-Flying to the Line; 9-Claudelle; 10-Vangogo
Forecast: Flying to the Line launches a comeback for Miller (20% plus a positive ROI with this angle) and though she’s a California-bred filly tackling opening company she looks like a live longshot in an open fray. Bred for grass and sporting a solid series of drills at San Luis Rey Downs, the daughter of Boisterous hit the board in both of her starts last summer at Del Mar and there’s every reason to think she’ll be better this time around. We’ll try her in the straight pool and in rolling exotics at or near her morning line of 8-1. Claudelle earned a career top Beyer speed figure when beaten a neck in a Hillside course affair in March, her first try on grass, so it would appear she far prefers turf. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Velez and probably won’t have to improve much to win. Vangogo removes blinkers and may try rating tactics from her far outside post. She exits a live affair and has a prior race last summer that charts well with these, so at 12-1 on the morning line she’s probably worth tossing in somewhere.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Westport; 4-Rafal; 6-One Eighty
Forecast: This hot maiden sprint has three excellent prospects, all of whom appear capable of winning, so this is a race will pass while going three-deep in our rolling exotics. Westport has worked like a good thing for Baffert but had the misfortune of drawing the rail. He may be good enough to overcome it. His stablemate Rafal was all the rage in his debut and appeared home free at 2/5 in mid-stretch before suddenly shortening stride and winding up a disappointing third, beaten four lengths. With that race under his belt and this shortening to five and one-half furlongs, the son of Alpha deserves a chance to make amends. One Eighty lands the cozy outside post and likely will inherit an ideal stalking trip. He’s another beaten choice who blew a clear lead at the furlong pole at odds-on in his debut, but like Rafal, could improve significantly in his second career start. This is a good one to watch.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Fore Left; 6-Phantom Boss
Forecast: Phantom Boss is a flashy chestnut by Shackleford making his debut in a field of eight first-time starting juveniles and has trained well enough to win right now. A recent half mile gate work in 48 2/5 seconds (breezing throughout while best of the team) points him out. Fore Left also has shown some talent in the morning; he’s a $97,000 yearling purchase by Twirling Candy and should come out running as well. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Phantom Boss
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Moon Kitty; 3-Flammetta; 6-Love and Peace
Forecast: Here’s a five-furlong turf sprint for fillies and mares that could realistically be won by anyone of at least three, so we’ll pass the race other than to include each of the main contenders in rolling exotic play. Love and Peace didn’t run a yard when fifth as the 6/5 favorite in a mile affair at this level last month but could easily return to her best form today. She was primarily a sprinter overseas, so we’re expecting the Drysdale-trained filly to be dangerous from just off the pace. Flammetta has won half of her six starts over the local lawn, though this will be her first outing at this abbreviated sprint trip. She should be doing her best work late. Moon Kitty appears the most dangerous of the speed types and will take them as far as she can. Her only start at this distance over this course resulted in a sharp score last November.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Gallantlystreaming has little to beat in this maiden $30,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and this drop in class and the switch to dirt might be what she needs to show her best stuff. Two bullet workouts at San Luis Rey Downs since her last race provide evidence that she’s doing very well, and under aggressive handling from Pedroza the Irish-bred filly should have enough early speed to secure a favorable pace-stalking position outside. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Sea’s Journey; 7-Mighty Elijah
Forecast: Mighty Elijah was off slowly, fell far back, and then made an extended run to finish a much-better-than-looked fifth before galloping out strongly past the wire in his debut last month. The son of Ultimate Eagle gets an extra half-furlong to work with today, so if he leaves with his field the San Luis Rey Downs shipper seems capable of handling this field. The jump from maiden $30,000 to $50,000 can be taken as a sign of confidence by his connections. Sea’s Journey has hit the board in each of his last four starts, though his speed figures have flattened of late. If ‘Elijah fails to fire, ‘Journey seems the logical alternative, so we’ll use him as a back-up while saving the main punch for our top selection.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Moon Over; 8-Kenjisstorm
Forecast: Moon Over hasn’t won in more than a year but the Palma-trained colt seems well-spotted to get back on track in this $50,000 claimer over nine furlongs on grass. He’s been chasing tougher foes of late but returns to the level at which he was taken by his current connections in late December and may be able to produce a winning late kick. Kenjisstorm couldn’t handle the main track and was eased after showing brief early speed in his most recent outing, a race that should be ignored. That failed experiment behind him, the veteran son of Stormy Atlantic returns to his preferred surface and looks capable of being the controlling speed if they want him to be. He’s been first or second in eight of 16 career outings over the local lawn and will be tough with anything close to his best race.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Selcourt; 4-Danuska’s My Girl
Forecast: Selcourt is back sprinting where she belong but once again is drawn inside (she prefers the outside). Nonetheless, she should be quick enough to make the lead and if she turns in anything close to her best effort the Sadler-trained mare should never look back. However, you have to go back to March of 2018 to find her last win, so we’ll also consider the recent Las Flores S.-G3 winner Danuska’s My Girl, who likely will be in a good stalking position and have every chance from there. In a five-runner field there’s little value to be found, so we’ll go two-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 8-Tig Tog; 10-Trustini
Forecast: The finale is a messy mile grass race for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. Small ticket players should consider the two listed above, but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead. Tig Tog hasn’t been risked for a tag since she broke her maiden last fall at Del Mar and the class drop is warranted following three consecutive fifth place efforts in tougher allowance company. She switches to Van Dyke, returns to grass, and should be along in time. Trustini has the same pattern – she returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since graduating in a maiden $75,000 event a year ago March - and could find herself on or near the lead throughout. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s a “must use.”