Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, April 30, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Warrens Candy Man; 3-Atomic Drop; 6-Rocks and Salt
Forecast: State-bred maidens meet over nine furlongs on grass in the Friday opener with at least half the field having a legitimate look. Atomic Drop shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for a barn that has good stats with this angle, and in a race without much pace he could find himself as the controlling speed. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding has the pedigree to handle the trip and a gets a considerable break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer. Based on his sprint speed figures the son of Mucho Macho Man is a strong fit. Warrens Candy Man is reequipped with blinkers, but we doubt the change will have much effect on his form. The son of Clubhouse Ride projects to enjoy a good ground-saving trip and his one-paced grinding style should be more effective at this longer trip. Rocks and Salt has trained well for his comeback and may be a bit better type this time around. He will race without blinkers for the first time, so we will toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Big Treat; 5-Drizella
Forecast: Big Treat has trained like a nice filly and appears fit and ready to win the first baby race of the season. The R. Hanson-trained daughter of Mr. Big has displayed sharp speed but also has shown the ability to finish, so with good racing luck we are expecting her to perform to expectations. Drizella also has shown good zip in her a.m. preps and hails from a barn that does very well with 2-year-olds. This daughter of the first crop stallion Stanford breezed smartly at the OBS March Sale (10 seconds flat) and her recent gate work (:47.1hg) on April 19 was good although second best with a stable mate. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we will have extra tickets keying Big Treat on top.
RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Paynter’s Love; 5-Flag Salute; 7-Circle of Honor
Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler for sophomore fillies does not offer much to work with. Circle of Honor and Paynter’s Love, two-three finishers in a similar affair earlier this month, are major players again and both are lightly-raced with room to improve. You can also toss in the class-dropping Flag Salute on your ticket as well though this will be her first start on dirt and her pedigree suggests she should be much more comfortable on grass. Tread lightly here.
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Casse Belle
Forecast: Cassie Belle has so far in her career preferred to finish second or third (eight times) than win (twice), but she appears to have found a field she should be able to handle. Always partial to the Santa Anita turf course, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit has enough tactical speed to always be within range and will have every chance to exert her superiority when the pressure is turned on. J. J. Hernandez stays aboard and knows her well, so at 2-1 on the morning line she is a win play and rolling exotic single in this starter’s allowance turf mile for fillies and mares.
RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Theultimatepraise; 6-Sir Flatter
Forecast: In a below par race for the level, we will take a shot with the Bay Area shipper Theultimatepraise on top. He is a first-time-blinkers play with steadily rising speed figures and a good inside post, and if sent from the bell could inherit the role as the controlling speed. You should also toss in Sir Flatter, who has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and a pedigree that suggests he will improve at this longer trip.
RACE 6: Post: 3:47 PT Grade: B
Forecast: Beaudacious is a six-race maiden with three runner-up performances on his resume. Today may be his day to graduate in a soft state-bred affair over nine furlongs on grass. With speed figures that are better than par for the level and with enough tactical speed to ensure a good stalking, trouble-free trip, the son of Karakontie picks up “in form” rider K. Desormeaux and should have no difficulties handling this longer trip. We will make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-She’s a Dime; 3-Midnight Jamboree
Forecast: She’s a Dime stretches out in her 18th career start and if she is ever going to be successful two-turning it will be in her first attempt. Clearly the controlling speed if she wants to be, the daughter of Eskendereya is a prior winner over the Santa Anita main track and will be tough to catch if front-running tactics are employed under bug boy A. Centeno, who knows her well. Midnight Jamboree projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip and will have every chance given the likely race flow. Nosed out vs. similar in her most recent outing when more than eight lengths clear of the others, the W. Spawr-trained mare just earned (by far) a career top speed figure and not much morel will be needed today. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 8: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Armour Plate; 4-Midnight Mystery
Forecast: Midnight Mystery did not break well and was always outrun vs. tougher foes last month but today drops for the money run following a couple of extra sharp recent workouts and should be primed for a top effort over a course he has proven he can win on. The lightly-raced gelding projects to part of the pace throughout and at this level should be able to produce a winning punch when called upon. Armour Plate is just 1-for-23 in his career but at least the win was accomplished over the local turf course. He will enjoy a ground-saving, second flight trip and with clear sailing through the lane figures to be heard from late. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we will have extra tickets keying Midnight Mystery on top.