Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, Jan. 25, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Friday, January 25, 2019

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 1-Love and Peace

Forecast: Love and Peace wasn’t knocked about when fourth, beaten just over three lengths, in her U.S. debut in the Lady Shamrock Stakes on opening day and with that effort behind her the French-bred filly should produce a significant forward move in this allowance event restricted to 4-year-olds.  She gets Lasix and Rosario (her previous rider, Prat, is out of town today), and should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from the rail. Based on her French form, she’s good enough to beat this field, and she’s been so sharp in the morning of late that she made our “Primed and Ready List (see video).  We’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Silk From Heaven; 4-Don’t Sell

Forecast: Don’t Sell was a well-beaten fourth as the favorite in her debut last summer at Del Mar and then was stopped on.  She returns with a healthy series of solid workouts for O’Neill and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this state-bred maiden sophomore filly sprint.  She’s also adding blinkers and catches a rather modest field for the level, so we’ll put her on top while also including Silk From Heaven, an okay second while nine lengths clear of the rest in her debut at Los Alamitos last month.  She didn’t earn much of a speed figure in that outing but certainly has a right to improve.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 2-Swallows Inn Gal; 5-Smart Rachel

Forecast:Smart Rachel seeks her third straight score after winning a pair of $8,000 claimers (one with a nw-2 restriction) in gate-to-wire style.  She drops a notch, not usually a healthy sign, but in this case it would seem that her connections are simply trying to maximize her productivity.  If they lose her, they lose her.  Swallows Inn Gal drops to her lowest level ever, has a good stalking style, and will be tough if ‘Rachel doesn’t fire her best shot.  These are the two we’ll include in our rolling exotics, but we’ll otherwise pass the race.


​​​RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Cool Your Jets; 4-Ostini; 6-Palermo Style

Forecast: Older maidens meet on turf over a mile in the fourth race with Palermo Style an intriguing top pick in his first try two-turning and his first on the sod.  As a son of Animal Kingdom, he should enjoy the switch in surface and the added distance.  His all-weather sprint efforts up north weren’t bad and there’s nothing special in this affair, so we’ll put him on top.  For protection, you can also include Cool Your Jets and Ostini, two-three finishers in a similar race in mid-November at Del Mar.  They are what they are and should at least hit the board.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: All

Forecast: This is quite simply an inscrutable bottom-rung maiden claimer for older fillies and mares.  There’s nothing to like and there’s nothing to completely toss, so if you can afford to buy the race, that might be the best way to go.  None of the seven entrants managed to even hit the board in their last start.  Crackling Bread may be the best of the poor lot, but she’s a 13-race maiden and definitely not one to trust.  But she could win.  It’s that kind of race.


​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Grazeninamerica; 6-Salutelute

Forecast:Grazeninamerica has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and likely will enjoy today’s two-turn trip.  He has no early speed but at least showed a willingness to finish in two prior extended sprint outings and has little to beat in this main track miler for bottom-rung maiden claimers.  Salutelute made the running and then held on for second in a weak affair at Los Alamitos last month.  He was 12 lengths clear of the rest and earned a decent number, so if he can duplicate that effort today he may be hard to deny.  Both should be used in your rolling exotics.


RACE 7: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Moonshine Annie; 8-Drop the Mic

Forecast: Moonshine Annie broke her maiden two-turning over this course last year but her best race was her last outing during the fall meeting, a closing second down the hill that earned a career top speed figure.  Freshened, working steadily, and coming from a barn that has superior stats with layoff runners, the veteran daughter of Discreetly Mine can turn it on late and looks capable of tagging the speed.  Drop the Mic won her debut over this course and distance in November and then flattened out in a first-level allowance race two-turning the following month at Del Mar.  She’s back sprinting where she belongs, and the D’Amato filly gets a major jockey switch to Rosario.  We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, and we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Moonshine Annie on top.


​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Mr. Paytience; 4-Scouted; 6-Principe Carlo

Forecast: Mr. Paytience showed considerable promise last summer as a 2-year-old, winning his debut impressively over the Santa Anita main track and then finishing a troubled third as the favorite in an added money affair at Pleasanton.  He was stopped on and turned out after that race but seems to be training well enough to pick up where he left off in this first-level state-bred allowance sprint.  The work tab at San Luis Rey Downs shows several sharp drills, so we’ll put him on top.  Scouted disappointed in a similar affair on grass on New Year’s Day but returns to the main track and should stick better.  The son of Twirling Candy earned a pretty good number when breaking his maiden at Los Alamitos two races back, but the form on that surface doesn’t always translate well to Santa Anita.  Principe Carlo gets his best conditions – sprinting on dirt – and should fire his best shot.  He can at least earn a piece of it.


​​RACE 9: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Souter; 2-Cupid’s Claws

Forecast:Cupid’s Claws turns back from nine furlongs to a flat mile after flattening out at that longer trip vs. similar late last month.  The son of Kitten’s Joy continues to impress in the morning for Koriner, lands a good inside post, and is a strong fit on speed figures.  Souter, beaten a neck in the same race Cupid’s Claws exits, is strictly the one to beat, though he’s winless in five starts over the Santa Anita turf course.  He’ll likely settle in mid-pack and then produce his best run from the quarter pole home.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Cupid’s Claws on top.


Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, Jan. 25, 2019

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