Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, November 2, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Friday, November 2, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Cimple Man

Forecast: Cimple Man is a first-off-the-claim play for the Cerin barn that boasts stunning stats (35% with a flat-bet profit) with this angle.  Fresh from a sharp score over this course and distance last month, the son of More Than Ready looks well-spotted for a repeat on the one-level raise.  All four of his career victories have been accomplished over the Santa Anita lawn.  Desormeaux is this stable’s go-to rider, so at 5/2 on the morning line let’s make this veteran gelding a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:35 PT. Grade: B

Single: 6-Desired Edge

Forecast: Desired Edge plummets to the bottom-level maiden claiming ranks in just her fourth career start, so it appears that she’s for sale, but the daughter of Tapizar has displayed enough speed to handle this very soft assignment.  This shortening in trip to five furlongs should be to her liking, so at 5/2 on the morning line in a field without any apparent effective closer she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:14 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Halo Darlin; 7-No Wine Untasted; 9-Spectacular Move

Forecast: ​ Restricted (nw-3) $25,000 claiming fillies and mares sprint down the hill in a typical grass grab bag for the level.  We’ll go three-deep but not with a huge degree of confidence.  Halo Darlin has two wins and nine seconds and thirds on her resume, so she’s never been one to trust, but one of her victories came over this course and distance and this is the softest spot she’s ever been in, so we’ll put her on top.  On pure numbers she’s more than good enough to beat this field.  Spectacular Move, claimed in her last pair and now in the Miyadi barn (a superior 30 percent with a significant flat-bet profit with this angle), lands the cozy outside post and adds blinkers for the first time.  Her speed figures are just okay, but she seems sure to improve for this outfit and is “must use” at 6-1 on the morning line.  No Wine Untasted is a fit on her best day but is unproven on grass.  Pedroza likely will try gate-to-wire-tactics, and if she can shake loose early, she could take this field a long way.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:53 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Gracie Belle; 3-Superhotamolly; 4-Imminent

Forecast: A little will go a very long way in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred juvenile fillies.  Best advice is to include as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play. Gracie Belle may be as logical as any; she has good early speed and may get brave against this group.  Imminent chased much tougher straight maiden foes in her only prior outing last spring; she returns in a realistic spot for Mulhall and has trained well enough to be competitive at this level.  Superhotamolly is another one with a bit of speed and shortens a half-furlong, so the daughter of Unusual Heat could stick around for at least a piece of it.  Tread lightly here.


​RACE 5: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Miss Unusual; 10-Copper Fever

Forecast: Copper Fever has much in her favor in this restricted (Nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares in her first start off the claim for Miller.  Anything close to her highly-rated third-place effort vs. allowance foes at Golden Gate Fields two races back should be good enough; in fact, she has several prior speed figures that are better than par for this level.  She’s 8/5 on the morning line and on paper looks it.  Miss Unusual can be used as a saver or a back-up on your ticket; she’s stretching out for the first time, lands the rail, and seems likely to be the controlling speed.  She’s probably better than her one prior race on grass, a Hillside sprint last summer when she faced tougher foes.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Bam Bam’s Lil River; 4-Vegas Strong Baby; 5-Diosa

Forecast: Juvenile fillies sprint six and one-half furlongs in this starter optional claimer that looks difficult and requires a spread.  Bam Bams Lil River graduated at first asking by six widening lengths in her debut at Los Alamitos in early September and while she didn’t beat a whole lot in that maiden $30,000 event, she did what was asked and is being protected today.  The Hollendorfer-trained will need improvement in the speed figure department but could be this good.  Six Pack Gal is stuck on the rail again for the third straight time and will have no option but to bust out and go.  She flashed good speed but faded late vs. tougher in her most recent start over a dead, tiring racetrack and probably ran a bit better than the line will show.  Diosa just broke her maiden with a good figure while on the lead throughout and could be the controlling speed right back.  However, she’s facing a tougher group and must handle an extra furlong, so we’ll see if she can produce another forward move.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:52 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Kenjisstorm; 4-Alert Bay; 5-Colonist

Forecast: There are many contenders in this overnight added-money affair at a mile on grass; we’ll give preference on top to course specialist Alert Bay.  This will be his third start off a long layoff, so another forward move is likely following a game score in the Rolling Green Stakes at Golden Gate Fields in early September.  The Wright-trained son of City Zip has an ideal pace-stalking style and always gives his best under pressure; his 15 career wins from 35 lifetime starts underlines what a true pro he is.  Kenjisstorm stretches out again and usually runs well over the local lawn (first or second in half of his 14 career starts).  From the rail he seems certain to be a strong pace factor throughout.  Colonist is a one-paced grinder, but he did win over this course and distance earlier this year and projects to at least hit the board.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:22 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Give Me a Hint; 7-Creative Instinct; 9-Mucho Unusual

Forecast: This is a strong, competitive race restricted to state-bred juvenile fillies with quite a bit of money ($200,000) at stake.  Mucho Unusual ran very well when second in her debut in the Generous Portion Stakes (to Creative Cause) and then was dropped into a state-bred maiden race for easy pickings and a confidence builder.  The daughter of Mucho Macho Man won as she pleased with a strong figure, has trained well since, and has the benefit of the comfortable outside post from where she can dictate her trip.  She’s 7/2 on the morning line and we’ll take it if we can get it.  Creative Instinct, undefeated in two starts and a winner in a similar affair at Del Mar in late August, has trained steadily for Miller at San Luis Rey Downs and should be set for another big try.  She’s not particularly fast on speed figures but her form is hard to knock.  Give Me a Hint also is perfect in two starts to date; a maiden claimer at Del Mar and then a starter optional claimer here last month.  She was visually impressive in both starts and likely will continue to improve with experience for Hess.  If she can secure a decent trip from the rail, the daughter of Merit Man should be right there.


RACE 9: Post 4:52 PT.  Grade: B-

Single: 10-American Currency

Forecast: In just four career starts, American Currency has been claimed twice, but in both cases the sale was voided due to unsoundness, most recently for $32,000 11 months ago, after which he was sent home.   The son of Exchange Rate returns in a modest restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming abbreviated sprint and has worked well enough for the high-percentage Morey barn to expect a major effort off the bench.  He gets a break in the weights with bug boy Figueroa in the saddle and looks extremely well-meant at 7/2 on the morning line.  In a race in which nothing would surprise us, we’ll take a stand (while holding our breath) and use the once-promising 3-year-old as a straight play and rolling exotic single.  For those who prefer additional coverage, you can consider the recent maiden-claiming winner Kopitar and the class-dropping, surface-switching From the Distance.


RACE 10: Post 5:22 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 7-Smoovie; 8-Paprika

Forecast: Older fillies and mares sprint down the hill in the nightcap, a maiden special weight affair that appears to boil down to two main players.  Paprika, runner-up in both of her prior attempts under these tricky conditions, seems the most dependable in the field and should greatly appreciate the return to grass.  The daughter of Heatseeker projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip under Desormeaux and have every chance to earn her diploma in this, her sixth career start.  Her morning line of 7/2 seems about right.  Smoovie flashed speed before fading in her recent comeback and should be fitter and stronger today.  She’s a daughter of Square Eddie and therefore bred to enjoy turf, so in her first start on the lawn the O’Neill-trained filly could easily produce a significant forward move.  Her impressive work tab at San Luis Rey Downs catches the eye.  Let’s try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, November 2, 2018

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