Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, October 12, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Friday, October 12, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: She’s a Dime

Forecast: She’s a Dime is progressing with racing, most recently finishing a distant second behind runaway winner Give Me a Hint in a fast, highly-rated race.  The Saldana-trained filly switches to Van Dyke for her first outing since mid-August, shows a bullet blowout at Los Alamitos just a few days ago, and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat.  At 5-1 on the morning line she’s offers value in the straight pool and as a rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B

Use:  2-Oracle of Omaha; 5-Give Me a Hint

Forecast: Oracle of Omaha and Give Me a Hint both are coming off runaway nine length maiden claiming wins and are clearly the ones to beat in this starter’s allowance sprint for juvenile fillies.  We strongly suspect the winner will be one or the other.  ‘Omaha, in his first try over conventional dirt after facing maiden-special-weight foes on grass in his first three starts, earned a huge speed figure in graduating at Los Alamitos last month.  Let’s see if he can run back to that race today when facing tougher rivals.  The same can be said for ‘Hunt, a winner at first asking with a good stalking trip and a strong kick through the lane.  ‘Omaha is a bit faster based on speed figures, so we’ll put him slightly on top.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Data Central; 3-Rumpus Cat; 4-Seahawk Wave

Forecast: ​There are three main contenders in this maiden-claiming turf sprint, with slight preference on top going to Data Central, who will be making his first start for a tag.  The Desormeaux-trained colt ran reasonably well in his only prior start down the hill, is solid in the speed figure department, and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza.  The rail is no bargain, but he should be good enough to overcome it against this group.  Rumpus Cat is re-equipped with blinkers and is trying maiden claimers for the first time, so improvement is likely.  We’re expecting the Ellis-trained colt to be on or near the lead most of the way.  Seahawk Wave probably is worth tossing in on a ticket or two.  The Glatt-trained gelding finished an okay third in his debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar, earned a competitive speed figure, and has a right to produce a forward move with that effort under his belt.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Tivat; 6-Dancing Belle; 9-Amuse

Forecast:  Dancing Belle has trained like a better type this time around for Desormeaux and should fire a big shot in her first outing since January.  Graded stakes-placed as a 2-year-old, the daughter of First Samurai doesn’t have a whole lot to beat here.  Amuse, a fair fourth in her only outing two-turning on grass at Del Mar, tries her luck sprinting on dirt and certainly has a right to improve.  The recent works look sharp for Mandella and daughter of the Medaglia d’Oro lands the cozy outside post.  Tivat, second in her debut in a modest straight-maiden sprint at Del Mar last month, must overcome the rail but could improve enough to make a run for it.


​RACE 5: Post 3:08 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  4-Conquest Typhoon; 6-Unapologetic; 7-Twentytwentyvision

Forecast: Conquest Typhoon seeks his third straight score and though he’s picking up 3 lbs. off his most recent score the consistent veteran should fire another big shot.  The Carava-trained gelding has been first or second in half of his 34 career starts and can win on the front end or from a stalking position.  Unapologetic didn’t like the dirt two races back and then was overmatched in the Del Mar Handicap, but he’s back where he belongs today and should regain his best form.  Three of his five career victories have been accomplished over the Santa Anita turf course.  Twentytwentyvision has been winless in two years and may not be one to trust, but he often gets a piece of it and probably should be included on a ticket or two.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:40 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Revenue Virginius; 4-Ipray; 9-Atrevida

Forecast: This is a difficult, contentious main track miler for $12,500 claiming fillies and mares and requires a bit of a spread.  We’ll use three and hope that’s enough.  Atrevida gets the worst of the draw but she returns to her favorite track, gets in light under bug boy Espinoza and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip outside.  Her best is good enough, so we’ll put her on top.  Ipray is fresh from a starter’s allowance win at Los Alamitos, so she’s in good form and is another – with four prior victories – that has proven winning form at Santa Anita.  Revenue Virginius drops to her lowest level ever while stretching out again for Hollendorfer and may try gate-to-wire tactics.  On pure numbers she’s a fit and this trip should be within her scope.


​​​RACE 7: Post 4:12 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Six Pack Gal; 7-Secret Maneuver; 8-Midnight Miracle

Forecast: Six Pack Gal was stuck on the deep rail and flashed good speed before weakening late in a similar starter’s allowance sprint at Del Mar.  She’s on the fence again today but this track isn’t quite as biased so the Machowsky-trained juvenile, who broke her maiden here last spring, might be able to grab control early and keep on going.  Secret Maneuver has two good races on her resume and with another forward move should make her presence felt from off the pace under Bejarano.  Midnight Miracle finished first but was disqualified at Los Alamitos in her most recent start; she’s comfortably drawn outside today, switches to Stevens, and projects to enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with extra tickets keying Six Pack Gal.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:44 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Foxtail; 2-Super Patriot; 4-Mongolian Humor

Forecast:  Foxtail ran very well at this level when a sharp second at Del Mar, projects to enjoy a good ground-saving trip from the rail under Baze and has a prior win over the local turf course.  The Sadler-trained filly seems the solid choice.  Super Patriot, freshened since early August, has an effective pace-stalking style and should have every chance with that kind of trip.  Her work tab for Baffert at Los Alamitos is strong is strong and healthy.  Mongolian Humor is a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita turf course, should be a pace presser, and can stick around for at least a piece of it.  She’s worth using as a back-up or a saver.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, October 12, 2018

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