The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Friday, October 19, 2018
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Archana; 6-Discreet Diva
Forecast: Six maiden-claiming juvenile fillies compete over a mile on turf in today’s opener. Archana would seem to have the best credentials; she has the first-time-in-a-claimer angle, stretches out to a distance that should be well within her range, and switches to Van Dyke. The daughter of Into Mischief looks capable of producing the last run. Discreet Diva looks very similar on paper to Archana; her numbers aren’t too bad, she’s also dropping from straight maiden company, and she probably will handle today’s extra ground if given the patient ride she appears to want. Archana gets the edge on top, but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 2: Post 1:31 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Popular Kid
Forecast: Popular Kid has won two of his last three and looks capable of scoring again in his first start since being claimed by Ellis for $20,000 at Del Mar in August. Away for almost two months but raised to the $32,000 level, the veteran gelding sports a heathy pattern and is more than fast enough on speed figures to handle this tougher assignment. Desormeaux stays aboard and knows him well. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Agroma; 6-Stay in Yo Lane
Forecast: Stay in Yo Lane has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern we like and this drop from maiden $50,000 to maiden $30,000 is warranted after a disappointing sprint try earlier this month. Bred to enjoy the added distance and catching a very favorable pace scenario, the son of Informed should be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout. Agroma lands the rail and is stretching out for the first time, so we’re expecting the Sal Gonzalez-trained colt to be forwardly placed and saving ground. He also gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug oy Figueroa. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Stay in Yo Lane on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Sellwood; 5-Cupid’s Claws; 6-Stonegate
Forecast: Cupid’s Claws is lightly-raced with plenty of improvement in him. The son of Kitten’s Joy ran well up north when second in a good maiden race, removes blinkers, and switches to Talamo. At this nine-furlong trip he looks capable of producing a winning late kick. Sellwood has hit the board in six of eight starts but is getting to look like a career maiden. Baze has gotten good run out of him in the past, so we’ll include this Mullins-trained ridgeling on a few tickets. We’ll also toss in the once-promising but largely disappointing Stonegate, who continues to impress in the morning but comes off a pair of dull efforts at Del Mar (perhaps he didn’t care for the deep track). He finished sixth in his only prior start on grass, but it was a sprint and this distance should be more to his liking.
RACE 5: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Sense of Glory; 5-My Farmer
Forecast: My Farmer drops a notch below his claim level after finishing fourth in a much tougher starter’s allowance race and the Hess-trained gelding may have found his friends in this below average $12,500 middle distance claimer. The main concern is that he’s winless in six career starts over the Santa Anita main track but is 4-for-9 everywhere else. Sense of Glory likes the front end and will try gate-to-wire tactics under Pedroza. He’s a fit on speed figures though most of his recent form has been accomplished against lesser. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to My Farmer.
RACE 6: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Gain Ground; 5-Comma Sister; 8-Starting Bloc
Forecast: Starting Bloc is improving with racing and is fresh from a very sharp starter’s allowance win over a mile on this turf course when earning a career top speed figure. This 10-furlong trip is well within his scope, so we’re expecting the son of More Than Ready to be double tough right back. Comma Sister has a prior win over the Santa Anita lawn though this mile and one-quarter journey could be stretching his limit. He has good tactical speed and should draft into a nice pace-stalking spot. Gain Ground always has preferred to run second or third than win but this return to grass is a positive move and the D’Amato-trained gelding has a look off his game score two races back at Del Mar.
RACE 7: Post 4:08 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Blame Joe; 10-Jump the Tracks
Forecast: Blame Joe take a nosedive in class after a dull try vs. much tougher starter’s allowance foes last month. He’s capable of much better – he broke his maiden by more than 10 lengths over this track last summer – and the Miller-trained gelding gets some weight off with the switch to Figueroa. Jump the Tracks finally broke his maiden in his 10th career start and did it in style at this seven-furlong trip last month at Del Mar. Based on speed figures he’s a fit at tis level and from his cozy outside draw he should have clear sailing and every chance. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then we’ll press with Blame Joe on top.
RACE 8: Post 4:38 PT. Grade: C
Use: 5-True Validity; 6-Velvet Queen; 7-Truffalino
Forecast: This grass grab bag is inscrutable; in a field compromised mostly of first-time starting juvenile fillies nothing would surprise us. Rolling exotic players should use as many as they can afford to. True Validity is the best of the known element but doesn’t really have a grass pedigree. You have to use her. Velvet Queen has been out of sight training at San Luis Rey Downs for a clever outfit. The daughter of Animal Kingdom might be able to run, and clearly is bred for grass. Truffalino also has a dominant turf pedigree, but all of her workouts have come on dirt, so who knows? We’ll toss her in.