The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Friday, October 26, 2018
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Rancor; 6-She Be Striking
Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in the opener, a maiden turf miler for older fillies and mares. Rancor launches a comeback – she’s been away since April – and the work tab indicates she should be fit and ready. The Hollendorfer-trained daughter of Oxbow may be a need-the-lead type but isn’t likely to make the running with the presence of sprinter-stretching-out Magical Gray in the lineup. We’ll see if she’s a better type this time around and if she’s able to be effective in a stalking role. She Be Striking would love a hot pace to chase; the English-bred filly appears to be the best of the closers and makes a pivotal jockey switch to Prat. She’s also solid in the speed figure department. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then press with She Be Striking on top.
RACE 2: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-I Am the Danger; 5-Quick Finish
Forecast: I Am the Danger looked good breaking his maiden while earning a career-top speed figure and a similar effort today in this starter’s allowance sprint will make him tough to beat right back. He doesn’t need the lead to win and may not get it, anyway, as Quick Finish appears to be a bit quicker. The Blacker-trained gelding removes blinkers, lands the cozy outside post and retains Van Dyke in his first outing since March with a work tab that should have him plenty fit. He’s fastest on speed figures and is strictly the one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 3: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Sutro; 9-Dearborn
Forecast: Sutro ran her best race to date when a closing second vs. similar at Del Mar while coming against slow fractions in a sharp effort. She’ll get the patient ride she needs from Smith and looks ready to graduate in what is a split of today’s opener. Dearborn, third in the same race Sutro exits, was subsequently bet down to favoritism in a maiden Hillside sprint earlier this month but just missed by a neck when winding up third. She’s stretching out again today while adding blinkers but must leave from the extreme outside post. We’ll give preference on top to Sutro but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Discatsonthesquare; 6-Belle Monte
Forecast: Discatsonthesquare makes her first start since being claimed by John Martin (32%) and seems likely to produce a significant forward move while returning at the same $16,000 level. The bad news is that she’s 2-for-26 lifetime; the good news is that both of her wins came over the Santa Anita main track. What she really likes to do is finish second or third (12 times). Belle Monte also makes her debut for a new barn – she was a $12,500 Lerner claim following a restricted (nw-2) win here earlier this month – and she does have a big number to go back to (which she may need). She’s also picking up 7 lbs. off her win. These are the two we’ll prefer, though neither are what you’d call trustworthy. If you feel the need to spread, go right ahead.
RACE 5: Post 3:08 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Palladium; 5-Baby Frankie
Forecast: Baby Frankie adds blinkers and makes his first start as a gelding while switching to Prat, so there’s a whole bunch of reasons to expect a significant forward move from the son of Super Saver. Third earlier this year in a two-turn turf event, the Desormeaux-trained juvenile shouldn’t be bothered by the stretch out in trip. Palladium was a fast-closing third (subsequently moved up to second) in the Gottstein Futurity at Emerald Downs last month, though the speed figure he earned wasn’t particularly impressive and the extreme race-shape (fast early, slow late) certainly was to his benefit. The son of Graydar should be a threat from off the pace, especially with some help up front. Let’s try to get by using just these two with slight preference on top to Baby Frankie.
RACE 6: Post 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Extreme Heat
Forecast: Extreme Heat drops for the money run in his first start since joining the Freeman barn and on pure numbers deserves top billing in this $25,000 restricted (nw-2) turf miler. The son of Unusual Heat has run well over this course in the past, stretches out, and likely will try gate-to-wire-tactics. The switch to Prat is another positive factor. Let’s take a stand and make him a straight play and rolling exotic single on the theory that if it’s not him, it could be anybody.
RACE 7: Post 4:12 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Algorithmnblues; 10-Cassie Belle
Forecast: Cassie Blue is drawn poorly outside in this maiden claiming miler for juvenile fillies, but this is a much softer group that she’s seen so far in her two-race career, so we expect considerable improvement. The pedigree suggests the stretch out in trip should be well within her range. Algorithmnblues seems to be improving for Harty. She ran well when a closing fourth in a maiden claimer on turf up north last time out; let’s see if she can perform similarly on dirt. In a race that is borderline inscrutable, we’ll try to survive and advance using these two, but not with a great deal of confidence.
RACE 8: Post 4:44 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Maestro Dearte; 6-Oscar Dominguez; 7-Well Developed
Forecast: This is a stronger than par second-level allowance affair over 10 furlongs on turf. Maestro Dearte has trained like he’s fit and ready for Eurton, and while it’s never easy to win off a layoff at this distance this barn is superb with comebackers, so we’re expecting a major effort from the son of Sidney’s Candy. He’s a fit on numbers and all four his races – all on this turf course – have been excellent. Oscar Dominguez comes off a sharp, highly-rated score in a claimer two weeks ago and is wheeled back quickly by Miller. On numbers he’s a fit, and he’s won twice at this mile and one-quarter distance. Well Developed might find the trip a bit taxing, but he’s certainly lone speed and could be dangerous if not respected.