Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Kennebec; 6-Optimistic Valor
Forecast: The Friday opener is a $50,000 claiming turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds. There’s a strong likelihood of a faster-than-par pace scenario that theoretically should help the closers, but there’s always a possibility that one of these need-the-lead types gets loose without pressure and never looks back. Under the assumption that there will be enough early heat to compliment his style, Optimistic Valor receives top billing. Taken back and allowed to produce one late kick, the P. Miller-trained gelding was an impressive two-turn grass winner at Del Mar vs. slightly softer foes in a highly rated affair two races back but then had a rough go of it when overmatched in much tougher first-level allowance company and finished far back. Returning to his proper level today, the son of Optimizer switches to F. Prat and looks capable of wearing down the leaders close home. Kennebac is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from his rail post, and with rising speed figures and an effective mid-pack stalking style the J. Wong-trained colt seems certain to fire another big shot. A clever winner with a career top number in a competitive starter’s allowance turf miler up north three weeks ago, the son of Lookin At Lucky can cope with any type of pace flow and hails from a stable that has superior stats (30%) with the repeat winner angle. We’ll give Optimistic Valor the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
6-Optimistic Valor (October 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h TT). Grade: B-
Maintenance training track drill for sophomore gelding, breaking off a couple of lengths behind Roy C (5f, 1:02.3h TT) and then finishing head-and-head with barn mate at the wire with neither one being asked, splits of :25.1, :37.3 and 1:02.1, steady and even throughout. Maintains his form, now officially trained by P. Miller though he was in his barn when listed under W. Morey’s care during the Del Mar season. Can snap back with a class drop.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Colosi; 5-Red Valor
Forecast: The two main players in this five-runner starter’s allowance ($12,500) extended sprint are drawn outside, with the versatile Colosi the one to beat in his first start following a facile two-turn mile score last month at Del Mar. Protected in a sign of confidence in his first start since being claimed by W. Spawr, the veteran gelding is a perfect one-for-one at this extended sprint distance, retains F. Prat, and should settle just off what projects to be soft early splits and then have his chance when called upon. The one to fear most is the razor sharp Red Valor, very dangerous as the likely controlling speed and a winner of his last four races with better than par speed figures for this level. He’s just one-for-11 during his career over the Santa Anita main track – all of his recent wins were earned either at Del Mar or Los Alamitos – but the S. Knapp-trained son of To Honor and Serve seems a much better type now and retains A. Cedillo, who has won five in a row when teaming up with ‘Valor. Colosi will get the edge on top, but both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
5-Red Valor (October 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Strong work for S. Knapp, under a strong hold early and then under mild coaxing late, splits of :23.3, :35.1 and 1:00.2 on our watches. Loves to win races and prefers a role as the controlling speed. On edge while seeking his first straight win.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-What an Idea; 10-Good Vibes Only
Forecast: The known element isn’t much so let’s sink or swim using a couple of fresh faces in this below par maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older state-bred horses. What an Idea debuts for the always-powerful P. Miller/F. Prat team (30%) following a string of fair-to-moderate workouts at San Luis Rey Downs. The son of Shackleford certainly should be fit, and with the presence of the meet’s leading rider and win-early breeding the sophomore gelding is a major contender by default. Good Vives Only, a Ruis Racing homebred by the outstanding speed sire Maclean’s Music, has looked okay on occasion in his a.m. preps and may be a bit faster than his workout times indicate. Drawn comfortably outside, he has a chance to load last, break first, and then have his chance to show what he’s capable of. In a race that might otherwise be best left alone, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Messier
Forecast: Messier somehow managed to get himself beat at 50 cents on the dollar in his debut at Los Alamitos in late June, going down by a length after racing greenly much of the way. The son of Empire Maker returns three months later and seems certain to be fitter, stronger, and more professional this time around. In a six runner field that doesn’t appear to have a whole lot in it, the B. Baffert-trained 2-year-old projects to be odds-on again, and this time we’re expecting the Canadian-bred colt to deliver the goods as a short-priced, no value rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts
3-Messier (October 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B+
Best with unnamed workmate working under the dam Nurse Donna (4f, :48.3h) in very sharp fashion for B. Baffert while working from half-mile pole to the seven-furlong pole, striding out wonderfully in the latter stages while earning splits of :23.2, :48.3 and 1:00.2 on our watches. Seems certain to display his best stuff next time out.
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4-Blackadder (October 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B-
Was outside unnamed stablemate working under the dam’s name Untouched Talent in drill from half mile pole to the seven-furlong pole, appearing slightly second best, splits of :24.1, :48.1 and 1:00.1 on our watches, some restraint early but ridden in the late stages. Quality Road colt has some run, but we’d tend to want to see a race first.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Freedom Lass; 5-Cinnte Winnte
Forecast: Cinnte Winnte has produced a forward move in each of her five starts since being imported from Ireland and the P. Gallagher-trained filly returns to her proper distance of a mile over which she produced two sharp victories prior to winding up a strong third behind subsequent stakes winner England’s Rose in a mini-marathon allowance affair at Del Mar last month. The Irish-bred daughter of Born To Sea likes to settle early and blast home, and under regular rider U. Rispoli she should be along in time in this starter’s allowance affair for fillies and mares. Freedom Lass isn’t quite as fast on speed figures as our top pick, but she just missed by a neck in a similar affair last month at Del Mar, and in a field without pace she should close up throughout if not actually controlling proceedings on the front end. The M. Puype-trained filly has worked well since raced and could be primed for a career-top effort.
Notable Workouts:
4-Freedom Lass (October 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B
Never really asked much in solo training track drill for M. Puype, splits of :24.3, :36.2 and 1:01 flat on our watches, nice drill. Turf specialist looks good and appears ready for another good effort.
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5-Cinnte Winnte (October 14, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.1h). Grade: B
Was eager in the opening stages but then just coasted through the lane, splits of :23.3 and :50 flat for grass specialist in P. Gallagher barn. Lightly raced and improving, looks good.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Delta Wind
Forecast: It’s tough to get past Delta Wind in this first-level allowance state-bred main track sprint for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Square Eddie annihilated a maiden-special-weight Cal-bred field by more than 11 lengths at Del Mar in late August and runner-up So Very Smart came back to graduate by more than six in her next start to frank the form. With a series of sharp recent a.m. drills in the interim, the J. Sadler-trained filly seems primed for another major effort and projects as an obvious short-priced rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
3-Delta Wind (October 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Breezing through the lane while clearly best over Comradery (same time) for J. Sadler, final half mile in :23.4 and :48.3. Put it together in her most recent race with a runaway maiden win and has further improvement in her.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade:
Single: 2-Dendera
Forecast: Dendera drops into a first-level allowance turf miler for juvenile fillies, is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat, and seems certain to be an odds-on choice based on her impressive maiden tally two races back. She projects to be the controlling speed, and given that type of trip the J. Sadler-trained daughter of Shaman Ghost should have no difficulty wiring her four rivals. She’s another logical, no-value, rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
2-Dendera (October 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
Easy to the top and then asked through the lane, final half mile on our watches in :24.1 and :49.3, laboring a bit in the late stages. Much better mover on turf and most likely will stick the lawn in the afternoon.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Naughty Evelyn; 5-Brittle and You
Forecast: The R. Ellis barn has been ice cold all year (3-for-58) but Brittle and You could help things turn around a bit in today’s nightcap, a starter optional $25,000 claimer for fillies and mares over a mile on the main track. She remains protected in her second start after being haltered for $32,000 in a sign of confidence, and after a respectable third sprinting at Los Alamitos last month the daughter of Include stretches out to a surface and distance she’s proven she can handle. She’s likely to enjoy a good second flight, stalking trip behind what should be a better-than-average early pace that will compliment her style. Naughty Evelyn got loose on the lead and ran weak maiden claimers into the ground at Del Mar last month, with the result being a confidence-building 10 length victory. Similar tactics will be employed today, and another forward move is possible, though this group is significantly tougher. Preference on top goes to Brittle and You but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
5-Brittle and You (October 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: B
Appeared quite sharp in solo main track drill, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.4, breezing throughout for R. Ellis. Much better on dirt than turf, it would appear. On edge.
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