Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mucho Unusual; 5-She’s Our Charm
Forecast: Mucho Unusual exits a series of six graded stakes to return to this second-level allowance event following a five month vacation and if she’s anywhere near fit the daughter of Mucho Macho Man should simply outclass this group. The work tab indicates that trainer T. Yakteen has given her a solid foundation that should have her tight enough and from her inside draw the California-bred five-year-old mare projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip either on the lead or from a pace-stalking position. She’s listed at 9/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower. She’s Our Charm is worth using as a back-up or a saver in rolling exotic play. The victim of a nightmarish trip in a similar affair at Del Mar in mid-August, the R. McAnally-trained daughter of Empire Maker is reunited with “win rider” J. J. Hernandez and shows a close third place finish behind our top pick over this course and distance in the Robert J. Frankel S.-G3 last December.
Mucho Unusual (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B-
Breezing and looking fine while best over Big Bell (5f, 1:01.1h) for T. Yakteen, breaking off a length behind and finishing a length in front at the wire while going much slower than given, splits of :24.2, :36.2 and 1:02 flat on our watches before galloping out six furlongs to the 7/8 pole in 1:15 flat. Nothing flashing for grass specialist, just doing what was asked of her. Should return as good as she left.
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She’s Our Charm (October 16, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.2h). Grade: B-
Can’t really confirm official final time (may have gone slower) as she came the final three furlongs on our watches in :12 flat and :37.4, never really asked through the lane looking decent enough for R. McAnally. Grass specialist had rugged trip last time out and can do better.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Forecast: Smileforme returns to his winning level and looks every bit the 8/5 favorite that he’s listed on the morning line. A distant second in a fast, highly-rated sprint behind next-out winner California Street earlier this month, the J. Wong-trained gelding equaled his career top number in that race and nothing more will be needed to handle this easier assignment. We’ll make him a short-price rolling exotic single but otherwise sit it out.
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Thrilling; 6-Trouville
Forecast: Thrilling flashed good speed but weakened late when sixth of seven (beaten less than three lengths) in the Unzip S. earlier this month. She returns in a much more realistic spot in this first-level allowance affair and seems the solid choice over a course she broke her maiden on last spring. In a field lacking quickness, we’re expecting the M. McCarthy-trained daughter of Uncle Mo to be the controlling speed. Trouville looked good winning a two-turn main track starter’s allowance affair at Los Alamitos with a career top speed figure last time out but has prior form that indicates she can be just as effective sprinting on grass. Winless in five outings over the local lawn but in the frame in four of those races, the L. Powell-trained daughter of Will Take Charge should be doing her best work late. Preference on top goes to Thrilling but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Let’sgetlucky; 2-First Prez; 5-Principe Carlo; 6-Nichiren
Forecast: Truthfully, any one of the six entrants in this state-bred entry-level allowance sprint can win and the safest way to survive and advance is simply to buy the race. We’ll go four-deep while slightly preferring Nichiren on top. Drawn comfortably outside and therefore guaranteed a comfortable pace-prompting trip, the M. Glatt-trained gelding shows a strong, healthy work tab for his first outing in nearly two months and appears to have plenty of room for further improvement. First Prez, listed at 5-1 on the morning line, has a legitimate look even though both of his career victories were accomplished on grass. The son of First Dude may be as quick as anything in the field and if he can shake loose early he might get brave late. Let’sgetlucky, third as the 4/5 favorite in the same race Nichiren exits, can fire fresh, as indicated by his debut maiden win over this track and distance earlier this year. Principe Carlo protected in his first start following a $20,000 claim more than a year ago, has back numbers that make him dangerous and a work tab at Los Alamitos that might be better than the final times would indicate.
RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Fly the Sky; 6-Elusive Treat; 8-Uncle Addouma
Forecast: This downhill turf sprint is another wide open affair that offers several possibilities. Elusive Treat was a closing second in a fast, highly-rated race in his U.S. debut and with any kind of forward move today the English-bred gelding should be capable of producing a winning late kick. The J. Mullins-trained sophomore was a decent handicapper overseas while racing primarily on synthetic but based on the positive impression he provided earlier this month we’re expecting him to be quite useful on this circuit. Fly the Sky is a two-time winner on grass over the flat course and as a proven late-running turf sprinter should thoroughly enjoy this unique layout. He’s reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli and most likely will be heard from in the final furlong. Uncle Addouma has the route-to-sprint angle that has proven to be quite effective with down-the-hill types and in fact this son of Uncle Mo might be more effective sprinting than routing based on his sharp one-turn maiden score over the local lawn during the spring. He’s a fit on numbers and shows a healthy recent series of workouts for M. McCarthy. Toss him in at 8-1 on the morning line.
Uncle Addouma (October 14, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B-
Ridden a bit through the lane in solo half mile main track drill, splits of :23.4 and :48.1, solid drill for grass specialist in M. McCarthy. Maintains his form, may appreciate a turn back in trip.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-I’m the Boss of Me; 7-Brilliant Cut
Forecast: I’m the Boss of Me is the quickest filly in this starter’s optional claiming field but other than her runaway 11-length maiden win at Los Alamitos four races back she’s always been suspect under pressure in the final furlong. She’s turning back from a route for trainer P. Miller and switches to F. Prat, so if he can shake loose early she may be able to roll all the way to the wire. For protection, we’ll also include Brilliant Cut, who projects to be in an ideal stalking position outside and then be ready to pounce should our top pick shortens stride when it matters. The D. O’Neill-trained filly is quite fast based on grass speed figures but something less than that on dirt. At 6/5 on the morning line she won’t offer much wagering value but can be considered a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
RACE 7: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Head Start
Forecast: Head Start showed a bit of ability in a pair of maiden sprints at Indiana Downs last summer, her best effort coming in her debut in a dirt dash in which she finished a solid runner-up after pressing the pace throughout. A subsequent grass sprint when leaving as the 6/5 favorite was disappointing, so she shows up in California for new trainer M. Glatt in a $50,000 maiden claimer that looks modest at best. A recent gate workout (4f, :47.3hg) was visually pleasing, so let’s go with the daughter of Upstart on top in the win pool and in rolling exotic play and hope to get close to her morning line of 5/2.
Head Start (October 24, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3hg). Grade: B
Went nicely in solo half mile gate drill for M. Glatt, splits of :24 flat, :35.3 and :47.4 on our watches, never asked much, mostly on her own. Arrives from the Midwest in good shape and trains like a better type than her form might indicate.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Burgoo Alley; 7-Spanish Loveaffair; 8-Zero Tolerance
Forecast: Zero Tolerance is improving with racing and was especially impressive winning the listed Unzip Me S. sprinting on grass earlier this month, her second victory from three career starts (she was nosed out in her debut). The P. Miller-trained daughter of Mizzen Mast tries two-turns for the first time and on pedigree should get the trip, though from her outside draw she’ll need to get over and secure a decent early position to avoid losing ground. We’ll gamble that she’ll be able to duplicate her strong sprint form around two turns. New York invader Spanish Loveaffair was 30-1 when she defeated an excellent field of sophomore fillies in the Pebbles S. at Belmont Park in mid-September. She has an effective pace-stalking style, much prefers firm ground, and has been here almost a month while preparing for this engagement. Burgoo Alley, a close third behind Zero Tolerance last time out, stretches out to a mile and was a clever winner at this trip two runs back. She’ll be prominent throughout and have every chance from the quarter pole home.
Burgoo Alley (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: B+
Sharp as a tack in solo five furlong training track drill for P. D’Amato, splits of :35.3 and :59.3, plenty left in the tank while strictly on her own. On top of her game.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Creative Peak; 3-Moose Mitchell
Forecast: The two main contenders in this maiden special weight sprint for California-bred juveniles exit the same race on October 9, with Moose Mitchell, who finished second in that race when beaten almost five lengths, listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite while Creative Peak, a weakening third (beaten six lengths) priced at 5/2. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other while actually preferring ‘Peak on top. The son of Creative Cause adds blinkers and may be a tad quicker of the two, so if he can leave cleanly from the rail the V. Cerin-trained colt may be able to lead throughout . ‘Mitchell likely will draft into a stalking position and then have his chance to go on by when the pressure is turned on. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 10: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Blossoming; 3-Travel Smart; 5-French Franc; 10-Set the Tone
Forecast: The nightcap is a chaotic maiden claiming turf miler for juvenile fillies. Anything goes, so we’ll spread hoping to get a decent price home. Travel Smart had an outing sprinting on dirt vs. maiden special weight foes at Del Mar in July and returns facing a significantly weaker competition under completely different conditions. The daughter of Gormley has the pedigree to enjoy this two-turn trip, attracts F. Prat, and shows a work tab at San Luis Rey downs that should have her sufficiently fit for this distance. French Franc wasn’t knocked about when a non-threatening ninth (beaten seven lengths) while facing much tougher straight maiden types over this course and distance earlier this month. We expect she’ll be much more serious today with this dramatic drop in class. She’s a fit on numbers and may have found her friends. Blossoming is another showing the straight maiden to maiden-claiming class drop angle, and in her second start and switching to U. Rispoli the P. Gallagher-trained filly seems very likely to improve. She’s bred to run long on the lawn, gets a good break in the weights, and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight, ground-saving trip. We’ll also include the first-off-the-claim play Set the Tone, now in the B. Hess barn and the top figure filly in the race following her runner-up effort for maiden $30,000 (while 13 lengths clear of the rest) at Los Alamitos last month. She’s poorly drawn in the 10-hole but has the pedigree to move up on the sod and makes a favorable rider switch to D. Van Dyke.