Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: A-
Single: 5-Comedic
Forecast: Comedic debuts following a string of good, solid workouts and catches what appears to be a below average field that should allow the daughter of Practical Joke to win at first asking in this abbreviated grass sprint. She brought $800,000 at the Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old in training sale in March after displaying superior speed and a smooth, athletic stride in a very impressive :10 seconds flat breeze, and while her recent workout times aren’t fast she really hasn’t been asked to show anything close to her best. Listed at 7/2 on the morning line, the S. Callaghan-trained 2-year-old will offer considerable value at that price in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
5-Comedic (September 25, Santa Anita, 3f, :35.3hg). Grade B+-
Second of three in gate drill with Collusion Illusion (4f, :47.2hg) and Malibuena (4f, :48.3hg), taken in hand leaving the barrier and then always under cruise control, splits of :23.4 and :35.4 on our watches. Merely an educational move, looks like a high quality sort, for sure.
View Workout Video
9-Loma Vista (October 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
Okay gate drill inside Altruist (same time) and Otta Hand (4f, :48.2hg), light coaxing only and finishing with something left, splits of :24 flat, :36 flat, :48 flat and 1:01.2 on our watches. No world beater but has some run, seems fairly fit.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-It’s a Riddle; 6-Truly Fabulous
Forecast: Truly Fabulous drops a notch below her claim price to the bottom-level $10,000 league for the first time since being haltered in February, and this easier assignment should allow her to return to winning form. A restricted (nw-2) victory in a $20,000 seller three races back at Pleasanton charts quite well in this moderate affair, and with two easy works since raced and four career victories from 15 lifetime starts the J. Wong-trained filly looks fairly solid at 2-1 on the morning line. It’s a Riddle is worth including somewhere on your ticket as a back-up or a saver. In the frame in her last two starts and a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the R. Hess, Jr.-trained mare has the route-to-sprint angle that we like, and though slower on pure numbers she could be dangerous if our top pick fails to deliver her best effort.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Aligato; 5-Hail Freedom
Forecast: Aligato was given an easy run in his debut when being allowed to lag to the head of the lane and then finishing full of run in traffic without being knocked about in a similar turf sprint for older maidens at Del Mar in late August. With that bit of experience behind him and an extra three-sixteenths of a mile to work with, the son of Kitten’s Joy should be along in plenty of time for a barn that has solid stats with second-time starters. There’s plenty of value here at 7/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Hail Freedom has been displaying speed going long in recent starts but may appreciate this turn back in trip and could find himself as the main speed in a race that doesn’t project to have quick early fractions. The D. O’Neill-trained colt shows a bullet half mile workout in :46 3/5 late last month, so we’re expecting to see “let roll” tactics employed. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Aligato.
Notable Workouts:
5-Hail Freedom (October 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade:
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Spoiled Rotten (4f, :48.4h) and proved best late while always breezing and able to go considerably faster if permitted. Maintains his edge for O’Neill, will be interesting to see if he can improve backing up to a sprint.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Da Kine; 7-Heir; 8-Harbor Sky
Forecast: Da Kine returned off a 14-month layoff to run a winning race in defeat when tagged close home in a similar maiden $20,000 miler at Del Mar last month. If he can produce a forward move – or even run the same type of race – the R. Baltas-trained gelding should be the one to beat. Harbor Sky, a first-off-the-claim play for D. O’Neill (a solid 18% with this angle), finished a neck behind Da Kine in that same race and must be considered a contender right back, though the race-shape in that main track miler promoted his closing style and today, over a surface that plays to speed, may make his task more difficult. Heir, haltered for $20,000 two runs back and then a voided claim in his move recent outing, removes blinkers, gets a break in the weights with the switch to the seven-pound bug D. Herrera, and with just three career starts has more room to improve than most of the others. His numbers are gradually rising, and he’s always trained like a bit better gelding than a bottom-rung seller, so we’ll toss him in as well.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Warren’s Queen Bee; 7-Gritty Girl
ForecastMaiden state-bred juvenile fillies sprint five furlongs on turf in a field that offers two main contenders. Gritty Girl acted up before the start in her debut, flashed good speed to establish a clear lead to the turn, but then quickly backed up and was virtually eased through the lane. She’s returned to work extremely well for J. Mullins while giving the appearance of a filly with much speed and some quality, so we’ll give her a chance to make amends today and hope she has her mind on business. The daughter of Street Boss seems likely to enjoy this five furlong trip and the switch to grass, so we’ll make her a gamble at or near her morning line of 3-1. For protection, we’ll also include Warren’s Queen Bee on our ticket. Not particularly fast on speed figures but in the frame in both of her starts, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride should at least hit the board again today.
Notable Workouts:
7-Gritty Girl (September 29, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h TT). Grade: A-
Absolutely breezing while tons best over Fast Draw Munnings (4f, :47.4h TT), plenty left late while finishing in hand. Stopped badly in debut but has to be miles better than that. Can bounce back next time.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B
Single: 5-V Bucks
Forecast: V Bucks takes a slight drop in class to the restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level after disappointing as the favorite when fourth in a $25,000 affair at Del Mar last month. Her speed figure dropped 15 points off her previous good effort, so she clearly ran down to the competition’s level, rather than vice-versa. The P. Miller-trained daughter of California Chrome broke her maiden by daylight over the Santa Anita main track in June, so we’re expecting her to bounce back with her best effort today. At 7/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Dicey Mo Chara; 3-Spirit Maker; 6-Tigershon
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this first-level allowance optional claimer over a mile on grass for older horses, with preference on top to Dicey Mo Chara. Victimized by a lack of pace and given too much to do when a willing but non-threatening second at this level last month at Del Mar, the English-bred gelding lands a good inside draw and should be able to secure a favorable pace pressing/stalking trip in an event that projects to have very soft early splits. The lightly-raced sophomore has plenty of room for improvement and is reunited with “win rider” T. Baze, so at 3-1 on the morning line the L. Powell-trained gelding deserves the edge on top. Spirit Maker found his best stride too late and actually galloped out far in front when fifth vs. similar in his comeback in mid-July at Del Mar. Unraced for more than two months since that outing, the J. Sadler-trained colt turned in a couple of flashy recent workouts to indicate he’s ready for a significant forward move, and if he’s not too far back early the son of Empire Maker colt should make his presence felt late. Tigerhon was no threat when given a race in his U. S. debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar in August, but with the addition of blinkers combined with the stretch out to two-turns the M. Glatt-trained colt seems sure to be forwardly placed, if not the controlling speed. He did win gate-to-wire at Newcastle in England last year, so front-running strategy seems logical.
Notable Workouts:
3-Spirit Maker (October 2, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: B+
Solo training track drill without any need of urging, splits of :23.2, :35 flat and :59.3, very light coaxing only. Has plenty of room for improvement based on this drill. Has all of his conditions.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:43 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Augusta Melody; 4-Doincic
Forecast: After being forced into a hot opening quarter and half, Augusta Melody stayed on gamely to run a winning race with a career-top speed figure when missing by a neck and winding up well clear of the rest in a similar affair at Del Mar last month. Today, the devout pacesetter/presser should have an easier time of it on the lead in a race without much early speed. Three easy breezes in the interim should have him fresh and ready. Doncic is the one to fear most. A maiden $30,000 claiming winner by more than nine lengths at Del Mar while leaving his previous form far behind, the son of Cairo Prince is protected today in a sign of confidence by new trainer V. Cerin following a timely claim and based on numbers is a strong fit despite the class hike. He’ll likely settle into a stalking position outside ‘Melody and then try to engage him when the pressure is turned on at the head of the lane. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with Augusta Melody getting preference on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:16 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Taming the Tiger; 4-Gypsy Blu
Forecast: Gypsy Blue is a Santa Anita turf course specialist (four wins, four seconds three thirds in 13 starts) and will be hard to beat if she can reproduce anything close to her best effort in this first-level allowance optional claimer. She was claimed for $32,000 when fourth at Del Mar in mid-July and today returns for $20,000, so there has to be a question of condition, but the purse of $63,000 makes the class drop somewhat understandable. The K. Mulhall barn has good stats with a limited sample in this first-off-the-claim category and a recent main track drill (5f, :59 4/5) should have the daughter of Papa Clem fit enough. Let’s hope she has at least one good one left. Taming the Tiger looked good winning a similar race on dirt at Los Alamitos last month and will be dangerous if she can duplicate that performance on grass. This will be her first career start on the lawn but, as a daughter of Smiling Tiger, there’s no reason she won’t handle it. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Gypsy Blue.
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