The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Monday, February 18, 2019
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Sapori Girl; 7-Field Bet; 10-Gallantlystreaming
Forecast: The opener is a grass grab bag down the hill for sophomore maiden claiming fillies. We’ll spread going three-deep while preferring on top Gallantlystreaming, a Sadler class-dropper who should enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip from her cozy outside post. Espinoza makes his comeback aboard the Irish-bred filly and it would be nice to see him win with her. Sapori Girl, a $190,000 2-year-old in training sale purchase last year, is being tossed aside in just her second career start, not a confident sign, but the daughter of Mizzen Mist seems sure to improve at this level after finishing sixth of nine in a straight maiden miler in her debut last month. Field Bet is an intriguing first-timer from the clever Miller barn. She shows a bullet gate drill at San Luis Rey Downs late last month, lands hot bug boy Figueroa, and her pedigree okay’s grass. In a field without any world-beaters, she should be at least competitive.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Implicity; 4-Hollywood Square; 6-Giddymeister
Forecast: Restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimers sprint seven furlongs in the second race, an open affair that has at least a few legitimate possibilities. Implicitly drops to his lowest level ever and fits very well with this group off his easy maiden-claiming win at Los Alamitos two runs back. We’re expecting Pedroza to try to put him on the lead. Hollywood Square is re-equipped with blinkers and tries dirt for the first time since his debut race in November of 2017. His grass numbers – if repeated today – make him very dangerous. Giddymeister shows the always-dangerous blinkers off angle for a clever outfit and picks up Rosario. He’s slower on speed figures than the main contenders but probably has some improvement in him, so we’ll include him as a saver on a ticket or two.
RACE 3: Post 1:35 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Ria Munk
Forecast: Let’s go for a bit of a gamble in the third race, a maiden main track mile affair for older fillies and mares. Ria Munk, now in the capable Amescua stable, stretches out for the first time to a distance she’s bred to like and also for the first time tries grass, which she at least shouldn’t dislike. The daughter of Paynter exits a pretty decent sprint race, shows a healthy work pattern since, and could produce a significant forward move under conditions that may very well bring out her best. At 6-1 on the morning line, we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post 2:04 PT. Grade: X
Forecast: Galilean is 2/5 on the morning line and looks it on paper in the California Cup Derby, the race that launched California Chrome’s Triple Crown run in 2014. Fresh from a nine-length romp in the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos in December and training extremely well since, the Hollendorfer-trained colt completely outclasses this field. He’s a no-value, rolling exotic free bingo space.
RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Silk From Heaven; 8-Lakerball; 9-Apache Princess
Forecast: This stronger than average edition of the California Cup Oaks has a few possibilities, so we’ll spread three-deep on our rolling exotics while hoping for a bit of a price. Apache Princess is stuck way outside and is coming back on short rest (eight days) but she’s genuine, versatile, and improving with every start. If the quick turnaround doesn’t do her in, she’ll probably win, but at 9/5 on the morning line she won’t be offering much value. Lakerball is a two-time stakes winner on grass but simply didn’t fire in her most recent outing in the Jimmy Durante Stakes-G3 at Del Mar in late November. She was given some time off after that outing and can be expected to bring her best stuff today. That said, the price chance in the field is Silk From Heaven, a visually pleasing maiden state-bred winner sprinting on dirt last month. She’s bred to be better going long (Richard’s Boy) and there’s ample turf breeding in her pedigree as well, so at 12-1 on the morning line she’s the gamble in the straight poll as well in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Schulace; 3-Oh Man
Forecast: Oh Man plummets in class and appears to have found a field he can handle. His only career win was accomplished over the Santa Anita main track and this return to dirt coupled with the easier task should make the winning difference. In a race without much pace, the Baltas-trained gelding should be forwardly placed throughout and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Schulace has seen better days – he won a maiden special weight sprint here in his debut as a 2-year-old – but against this group the Champ Pegasus gelding should be highly competitive. He exits a live race and gets a big break in the weights with the switch to Diaz. We’ll try to get by in our rolling exotics using just these two.
RACE 7: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Amuse; 8-Cordiality
Forecast: Amuse was scratched from the Santa Monica Stakes-G1 on Saturday for this softer spot and the Mandella-trained filly should be at her best in this downhill turf dash. Most effective as a late-running sprinter, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro will likely settle in mid-pack and then produce her run when called upon by Smith. She finished fourth in her only prior grass race (her debut) but that was a two-turn affair, so we won’t hold it against her. Cordiality returns to her claim level and the Miller-trained mare switches to Rosario. A three-time winner over the Santa Anita lawn, she was disappointing in the Cal Cup Filly & Mare Sprint over this course and distance last month but certainly seems capable of bouncing back. We’ll give the edge on top to Amuse despite the fact that she’s a little light in the speed figure department but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:13 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Imminent; 4-Floss N Dab; 9-Out of Control
Forecast: Maiden claiming sophomore fillies sprint five furlongs in the eighth race. Two first-timers deserve solid support, with the San Luis Rey Downs shipper Floss N Dab especially intriguing. The Miller-trained daughter of Jimmy Creed shows a decent series of workouts and obviously won’t have to be a world-beater to win at first asking for a barn that has solid stats with debut runners. Out of Control is another newcomer worth strong consideration. The Hofmans maidens often run better than they work, and this daughter of Papa Clem has been given a solid foundation and should be plenty fit. Imminent has good early speed and may be the best of the known element. She’s hit the board in three of five career starts and at this abbreviated sprint trip should stick around for a long time.
RACE 9: Post 4:45 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Cupid’s Claws; 4-Meistermind; 6-North County Guy
Forecast: The finale is a difficult second-level allowance turf miler. North County Guy stretches out for the first time and could be the controlling speed if his connections opt for that strategy. On pure pedigree he should handle the mile. Cupid’s Claws is re-equipped with blinkers and lands a good inside draw, which should insure a ground-saving trip. With the addition of the hood, the Kitten’s Joy gelding might find himself a little closer to than pace than usual. Meistermind, away since last summer, is a dangerous eastern shipper now in the O’Neill barn. His dirt numbers making him a fit, but this will be his first career grass try. If if he handles the lawn, the son of Bodemeister has a legitimate price chance at 8-1 on the morning line.