The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Monday, October 8, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Gliding By; 4-One Fast Broad
Forecast: On pure numbers she’s probably not fast enough to beat this group and this will be her first try tackling older foes, but One Fast Broad always gives her best and continues to look sharp in the morning after winning a nice first-level allowance race at Del Mar in mid-August. Stevens will have her within range at the head of the lane and then we’ll see if she’s up to the task. Gliding By switches to Prat for her comeback and her work tab at San Luis Rey Downs really catches the eye. She’s a fit on numbers for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners. Let’s try to get by using just these two in a field that is competitive from top to bottom.
RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: X
Use: 3-Metropol; 4-Coliseum
Forecast: Baffert has two of the five runners in this extended sprint for maiden special weight juveniles and both have trained like nice colts. Coliseum, a Godolphin homebred by Tapit, has been especially impressive and is the likely favorite, but Metropol has done enough in the a.m. to warrant consideration as well. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 3: Post 1:33 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Salah; 6-Lead Star
Forecast: Lead Star returns to the maiden claiming ranks and has been this one-mile journey twice already, so the son of Union Rags is dead fit and the logical top pick for the Desormeaux brothers. However, in three career starts he’s yet to show any kind of style or move. Maybe he will against this group. Salah, a decent second in his debut sprinting at Del Mar when facing $32,000 foes, moves up to the maiden $50,000 level today for Harty and seems likely to improve. We would have preferred to see one more sprint under his belt, but in a soft field he looks as good as the others, maybe better. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; very slight preference on top goes to Lead Star.
RACE 4: Post: 2:06 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Market Sentiment; 3-Allaboutaction
Forecast: Allaboutaction is 3/5 on the morning line but he was a voided claim for $40,000 in his last start so there must be a question of condition. Always genuine and consistent, the Miller-trained gelding will be tough to beat if he has one good one left. Market Sentiment is competitive on speed figures and is the one to fear most despite the long layoff. The Jacobson-trained 5-year-old has had his own share of issues – this will be just his seventh career start – but the barn has strong stats with comebackers and the son of Midshipman is waiver protected after being haltered last November for today’s claiming price of $32,000.
RACE 5: Post 2:42 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Lady Prancealot; 4-Summering
Forecast: Summering and Lady Prancealot finished one-two in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar and they meet again in the Surfer Girl Stakes under similar conditions. Summering has more tactical speed and won both of her starts like as top prospect, but ‘Prancealot finished strongly into the teeth of slow splits in her U.S. debut and has every right to move forward off the race. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with extra tickets keying Summerling.
RACE 6: Post 3:14 PT. Grade: C
Use: 7-Kopitar; 8-Conversate
Forecast: Kopitar is an 11-race maiden and has failed as the favorite five times, so he’s hardly one to trust and certainly not one to take a short price on. Having said that, he’ll probably win one eventually, maybe today against an extremely soft band of bottom-rung older maiden claimers. First-time starter Conversate has worked okay for his debut and obviously won’t have to be any world beater to be competitive. However, is barn is 0-for-22 with first-timers at last count. This is a good race to avoid.
RACE 7: Post 3:44 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-TizToffee; 4-Gypsy Blu
Forecast: Tiz Toffee just won a similar starter’s allowance race at Del Mar but did so as a maiden, which means she’s eligible to come right back and do it again. And she’ll be a short price to do just that, rail and all. She’s 6/5 on the morning line; she was 3/5 last time. Gypsy Blu just finished 18 lengths behind Tiz Toffee in that late August race but has come back to work extremely well and probably can do much better. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s probably worth tossing in on a ticket or two.
RACE 8: Post 4:14 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Much Better; 4-Spin Lightning; 5-King of Speed
Forecast: Much Better won at first asking for Baffert at Del Mar but didn’t run particularly fast in that maiden dirt sprint last month. However, the son of Pioneerof the Nile really isn’t bred to sprint so we’re expecting a considerable forward move from a barn whose stretch-out numbers are spectacular. Spin Lightning was out of his element in the Del Mar Futurity but should go much better against this softer group. He’s by Hard Spun, so the switch to grass is a positive move, and Prat stays aboard for Mullins. King of Speed won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf in clever style but enjoyed a perfect, ground-saving trip. Stevens stays aboard, knows him well, and will give him the patient ride he requires.
RACE 9: Post 4:44 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Longden; 7-Air Strike
Forecast: Midwest invader Air Strike blew away a decent group of maidens at Del Mar while earning by far a career top speed figure in his first start since joining the D’Amato barn. The son of Street Sense tackles tougher today but this group should be within his scope. Longden returns as a first-time gelding for Baffert and could easily be a better type this time around. He’s fast on figures, has been first or second in four of five career starts over the Santa Anita main track, and has been working well enough at Los Alamitos to be fit and ready. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference to Air Strike.
RACE 10: Post 5:14 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Sensible Thoughts; 5-Exes N Ohs
Forecast: This takes some imagination, but Exes N Ohs, who continues to impress in the morning, just might take to the turf, grab an easy lead, and forget to stop. She’s a first-off-the-claim for Greenman, who takes the blinkers off and switches to Pedroza. The daughter of Street Sense might just be a morning glory, but if she isn’t, look out at 10-1. Sensible Thoughts is solid on numbers, ran well enough in her only prior outing on grass and makes a major switch to Prat. She’s easily the one to beat.