The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Saturday, January 19, 2019
RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Rinse and Repeat; 6-Blitzkreig
Forecast: Today’s opener is a downhill turf sprint for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers. Rinse and Repeat is fastest on speed figures and drops for the money run while returning to grass. His only prior turf run wasn’t too bad – he finished fifth in a route race during the fall meeting – but at this sprint trip the son of Square Eddie should have every chance to produce the last run. However, he’s 1-for-16 in his career, so we’d hardly say he’s trustworthy. We’ll also include Blitzkrieg, who like Rinse and Repeat is dropping to his lowest level. Not as fast on pure numbers and his main rival, the Mandella-trained gelding nevertheless is a major player based on the route-to-sprint angle and the switch back to “win rider” Prat. We’ll try to get by using just these two.
RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Sierra Sunset; 4-Winterbreak; 7-Derby Luck
Forecast: Maiden-claiming sophomore fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in the second race, with Sierra Sunset sure to get plenty of play following a closing third in a similar spot last month. The problem is that she’s lacking in tactical speed and drew the rail, so one can easily foresee traffic trouble and a tough trip. Winterbreak chased tougher down the hill in her debut and faded readily after being within range to head of the lane. She removes blinkers, drops to a realistic spot, and switches to dirt, so if she can run at all she should be competitive. Derby Luck has shown a bit of speed in two starts and shows up in a claimer for the first time. Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit should have every chance with a pace-prompting trip. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
RACE 3: Post 1:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sweet Treat; 3-Award It; 4-Mistressofthenight
Forecast: The third race is a main track mid-level claiming miler for fillies and mares. Sweet Treat remains above her claim price in a sign of confidence and likely will try gate-to-wire tactics from the rail. Fourth in a much-tougher first-level allowance race in her last outing while earning a career top speed figure, the veteran daughter of Candy Ride should prove to be an elusive target. Mistressofthenight was nosed out in an $8,000 claimer at Los Alamitos in mid-December but shows up here for a $20,000 tag and lands Rosario. This is not how Baltas normally operates, so you have to take notice. A bullet half-mile workout over the training track 10 days ago is noteworthy. If you can afford to, toss in Award It, at least as a backup. This route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt angle can be lethal and on form she might even prefer the main track. We suspect she’ll be heard from late.
RACE 4: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Twirling Tiger;5-Stringent; 6-Papa Turf;
Forecast: Twirling Tiger is a route-to-sprint play exiting a much tougher starter’s allowance miler and should greatly appreciate this lower level and the turn back in trip. First or second in five of eight starts over the local main track, the Yakteen-trained gelding should draft into a comfortable pace-prompting position and have every chance. Papa Turf is double-jumped in class following an all-out desperate win vs. $8,000 foes late last month. His numbers are okay, nothing great, but at least he’s healthy. On pure form Stringent is good enough to win, but he was a voided claim for $16,000 in his most recent outing in mid-November, so there’s definitely a question of condition. Three of his four career wins have been earned over the Santa Anita main track and he switches to Bejarano; however, he shows no workouts since Jan. 2. We’ll use him on a ticket or two, but that’s it.
RACE 5: Post 2:02 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Shining Through; 5-Mobou
Forecast: Maiden 3-year-olds compete over a mile on turf in the fifth race, with Shining Through trying to make amends after failing at even money in a nine-furlong affair late last month. This drop back in trip should make the winning difference for the son of Malibu Moon, who switches to Rosario and should be forwardly placed throughout. Mobou, freshened since early December and a runner-up in his last pair, is considerably slower on speed figures than Shining Through but could have some improvement in him and is worth tossing in as a back-up.
RACE 6: Post 2:32 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Facts Matter; 3-Iron Alex; 6-Tanners Pride
Forecast: Here’s another restricted (nw-3) claimer, this one for $16,000 sprinters that appears to be fairly wide open. We’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics without any real conviction. Facts Matter looked good winning from a restricted $12,500 field here Dec. 29; he’ll have to overcome the rail but in his present form the Hollendorfer-trained gelding may be sharp enough to win on the raise. Rosario stays aboard the son of The Factor, who will be tough if he can avoid traffic trouble. Mo Soul was a stakes-winner as a 2-year-old but clearly has issues and drops again in class while trying to find his proper level. Away since October, the Glatt-trained gelding switches to Pedroza and should be part of the pace. If he can clear early, he could get brave. Iron Alex drops to his lowest level ever, turns back to a sprint and goes from grass to dirt. Against this group he could be a late threat. Tanners Pride is a fit on numbers and both of his career wins were accomplished over this main track. It’s been quite a while since he last visited the winner’s circle but in this league he has to be considered.
RACE 7: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Jumpin Thru Hoops; 6-Scalper
Forecast: Jumpin Thru Hoops flashed excellent early speed in his debut to lead the way for a half before weakening; he should be fitter and stronger today with that race behind him coupled with this shortening to six furlongs. Lopez, who is in town to ride Roy H later in the afternoon, picks up the mount and will have this son of Yes It’s True out and winging from his number two post position. Scalper is another second-timer with a right to produce a significant forward move. Bet down to 6/5 on opening day, the Baffert-trained colt didn’t get the best of runs and flattened out late, but the barn has strong stats with second-timers (21%) and we expect the son of Uncle Mo will improve significantly. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Tigerbeach; 5-Jimmy Chila; 7-More Honor
Forecast: Tigerbeach may be as good as any in this grass grab bag down the hill. The route-to-spring angle is especially effective over this course, and the Morey-trained gelding should produce a forward move in his second outing since arriving from Florida. He’s good enough on numbers as well. Jimmy Chila, also turning back from a mile, has a prior win over this turf course and distance and retains Rosario. Claimed for $40,000 last summer, he’s been protected in each of his next seven starts, so at least we know he’s healthy. More Honor won $50,000 claimer down the hill when facing 3-year-olds last October and makes his first start since. He’s slightly slower on numbers than his main rivals but could be a better type this time around, so we’ll toss him in.
RACE 9: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: X
Use: 7-Roy H
Forecast: Two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Roy H makes his seasonal debut in the Palos Verdes Stakes, and while he’s probably not cranked up 100% his clear class edge should carry him through. Having drawn the comfortable outside draw, he’s not likely to encounter any racing trouble, and as a winner of four of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the Miller-trained son of More Than Ready is likely to run to his odds-on price.
RACE 10: Post 4:34 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 8-Deaerborn; 10-Strengthinnumbers
Forecast: Dearborn looks ready to graduate in this maiden $50,000 claiming turf sprint for older fillies and mares. The first-time-for-a-tag angle always must be considered and this daughter of Malibu Moon should take full advantage of the easier competition. She also has the route-to-sprint angle working for her and is removing blinkers, so there’s much to like, except for her morning line of 9/5, and she might end up shorter than that. Strengthinnumbers is ideally drawn outside and should settle in mid-pack and then produce a good late kick. We’ll use her on a ticket or two, but the main rolling exotic punch goes to Dearborn.