The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Saturday, March 3, 2019
RACE 1: Post 12:25 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Madam Mousse; 2-Duranga
Forecast: No turf racing today and the track likely will be sealed sloppy/wet fast. We’ll be playing conservatively. Check for program changes, there will be many. We’ll pass the first race, a bottom-rung $6,250 claiming sprint for fillies and mares, but rolling exotic purposes we can consider Duranga (class drop, blinkers back on, route-to-sprint angle), and Madam Mousse (winning shipper from Golden Gate Fields for a high-percentage outfit).
RACE 2: Post 12:55 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-I Can Do This; 3-Falcone; 6-Bellerin
Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf, so anything goes. We’ll go three-deep without any conviction. Bellerin has prior figures that would beat this field and exits a hot sprint, so the Gaines-trained gelding seems as good as any. I Can Do This is relatively lightly raced so he may room for further improvement and his numbers are gradually rising. Assuming he stays in the race, Falcone will be trying the main track for the first time and stretches out again while switching to Prat, so improvement is possible.
RACE 3: Post 1:25 PT. Grade: B
Forecast: Eskenforadrink projects as the controlling speed, and while she’s moving up from $8,000 to $16,000, this is a restricted (nw-3) affair so this group is well within her range. The barn hasn’t won forever but we’ll go with her as a rolling exotic single nonetheless and hope to get close to her morning line of 5/2.
RACE 4: Post 1:56 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Full Eclipse; 11-Twice Golden
Forecast: This race was originally scheduled for the Hillside course. Twice Golden isn’t fast on numbers but won’t have to be against this group. She could be the quickest in the field and may never look back. Full Eclipse comes from a low-percentage outfit but ran well when second in an off-the-turfer in her debut and then was overmatched in the Sweet Life Stakes. She can run with these.
RACE 5: Post 2:26 PT. Grade: X
Use: 4-Soothing; 6-Bold Mongolian
Forecast: Bold Mongolian seems logical but at 4/5 on the morning line there’s not much we can do with her. Soothing just finished nine lengths behind the favorite when they met last month but switches to Prat and may improve enough to make a race of it.
RACE 6: Post 2:56 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Stubbins; 9-Big Scott Daddy
Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf. We made Stubbins a Day Maker following a pair of excellent races when switched to grass. How he’ll do over a sloppy track is anybody’s guess. Big Scott Daddy is comfortably drawn outside and shouldn’t at all be inconvenienced by the surface switch. He’ll add blinkers while retaining Smith and seems the logical top pick given the wet track.
RACE 7: Post 3:28 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Coil to Strike; 6-Sea’s Journey
Forecast: Sea’s Journey and Coil to Strike finished two-three in a similar race last month and both should be eyeing each other again in the final furlong of this maiden $50,000 affair for state-bred 3-year-olds. We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play in a race that otherwise offers little wagering value.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Flor de La Mar; 3-Qahira
Forecast: The rail is no bargain, and neither will be the price (she’s 6/5 on the morning line), but Flor de La Mar broke her maiden like a quality filly and has the perfect style for this extended sprint distance. Her pedigree suggests she’ll handle the wet track just fine, but who really knows until they try it? The other Baffert entrant, Qahira, actually is faster on pure numbers and can be expected to regain her best form with the turn back in trip. We’ll prefer Flor de La Mar on top in a race that is probably best left alone.
RACE 9: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Samurai Jack; 8-Translucent
Forecast: This maiden $50,000 claimer originally was scheduled for five furlongs on turf. Our two top contenders, Bowl of Spaghetti and Elusive Flame, both stretched. That leaves us with little to work with, but Samurai Jack is a first-time gelding with a bit of speed, and Translucent is plenty quick and should enjoy this abbreviated distance. He might shake loose and get brave.
RACE 10: Post 5:02 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Buck Duane; 7-Ayacara
Forecast: This finale is an inscrutable $12.500 restricted claimer over seven furlongs. Use as many as you can afford to. Buck Duane showed signs of life when second in a similar spot over this track and distance last time out and nothing more should be needed to win, though the rail post may invite trouble. Ayacara, fourth in the same race Buck Duane exits, should be heard from late. Pass.