Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, November 3, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Saturday, November 3, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 10:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-All I Can Say; 7-Astonishing Tweet; 8-Bess His Heart

Forecast: The opener is a modest maiden claiming state-bred sprint that should be handled with care.  We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.  Bless His Heart lands the comfortable outside post, adds blinkers for the first time, and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Figueroa.  He seems as good as any at 5-1 on the morning line.  All I Can Say just finished more than three lengths clear of Bless His Heart when they met last month and if he can avoid trouble from the rail the Old Topper gelding will be the one to beat.  Astonishing Tweet is a first-timer with a fair series of drills for McCarthy.  The son of Lucky Pulpit isn’t a world beater, but against this group he won’t have to be.


​​RACE 2: Post 11:16 PT. Grade: C

Use:  1-La Dolfina; 2-Ma Bella; 6-Cash for Cass

Forecast: This is another difficult race, a maiden claiming $50,000 sprint for juvenile fillies.  Ma Bella has trained well enough to be a fit at this level, but the Baltas barn has never been known for success with first-timers.  The daughter of Birdstone is a contender mostly by default in an unclassified field.  La Dolfina showed no early speed in her debut but then rallied inside and finished with interest be a non-threatening second.  She gets an extra furlong to work with today so with a forward move and clear sailing form the rail the Greenman-trained filly could tag the speed.  Cash for Cass was far back vs. much tougher straight maiden foes in her debut but this class drop along with the addition of blinkers could make a big difference.  We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics while giving a very slight edge on top to the newcomer, Ma Bella.


​​RACE 3: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Naughty Sophie; 8-Tizanillusion; 10-Helen’s Tiger

Forecast:Helen’s Tiger is in excellent form for O’Neill and has a prior win over this downhill turf course.  Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Smiling Tiger should be able to settle into a second flight or stalking position and then have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire.  Tizanillusion is a fit on speed figures but has just two wins (along with 12 seconds and thirds) in 19 career starts and isn’t one to bank on.  She at least should land in the frame.  Naughty Sophie earned a big figure when beating a starter’s allowance field at Los Alamitos and if she can duplicate that effort on turf, she’ll have a look, especially with the weight break she’ll enjoy with the switch to Figueroa.  All three should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Helen’s Tiger on top.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 12:48 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Best Two Minutes; 4-Junior Gilliam; 6-Allaboutaction

Forecast: A group of hard-hitting older sprinters meets at the abbreviated five and one-half furlong trip in another race that requires a spread.  Allaboutaction just blew a clear lead in mid-stretch at 30 cents on the dollar when worn down late by Junior Gilliam; they meet again today with ‘Action going from Miller to Sierra is what statistically can be called a negative barn switch.  ‘Gilliam is protected today in a sign of confidence by Hollendofer, switches to Bejarano, and seems likely to be tough right back.  Best Two Minutes, a $40,000 Knapp claim, exits a monster race won by next-out winner Awesome Anywhere and should find this group well with his range, assuming he runs as well for his new barn as did for Sadler and Baltas before that.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while giving very slight preference on top to Best Two Minutes.


​RACE 5: Post 1:28 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Facts Matter; 5-Older Brother; 9-Ride the Wire

Forecast: Restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimers meet over the extended sprint trip of six and one-half furlongs, with first-time gelding Facts Matter, returning to dirt and showing up in a seller for the first time, getting top billing.  The Hollendorfer-trained son of The Factor has numbers that can win and has run well over the Santa Anita main track in the past.  This is a justified class drop, so all the boxes are checked.  Ride the Wire lands the good outside post and should draft into an ideal pace-prompting position.  His best main track speed figure was accomplished here last summer, and a repeat of that third-place effort today puts him right there.  Older Brother is a quick 3-year-old surfacing for a tag for the first time and has a recent bullet workout at San Luis Rey Downs to indicate sharpness.  The Freeman-trained gelding is worth tossing in on a ticket or two.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:10 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Dis Smart Cat

Forecast: Dis Smart Cat adds blinkers for the first time and drops to her winning level.  She switches to Bejarano and ran very well (second, beaten a head) at this five-furlong trip for a similar $40,000 tag three runs back.  There’s value to be had at or near her morning line at 4-1 so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Street Image; 8-Anothertwistafate; 12-Stretford End

Forecast: Stretford End ran Improbably to a neck in his debut earlier this meeting and was flattered when that one came back yesterday to win the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs.  If the son of Will Take Charge runs back to his first outing, it’ll take a very good colt to beat him.  Anothertwistafate has been burning up the track at Golden Gate and shows up down south for the money run in his debut for Wright.  He’s a “must use” at 8-1 on the morning line.  Street Image shortens to six furlongs, seems likely to be part of a hot pace, and could at least stick around for a share.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Storm the Hill; 6-Painting Corners

Forecast: Storm the Hill, freshened since early September, returns to her favorite course and distance and has looked especially sharp in recent drills for D’Amato.  Extremely effective as a late-running sprinter, the daughter of Get Stormy needs good racing luck, but if she enjoys clear sailing, she’ll be hard to contain.  Painting Corners seeks her third straight win and is another proven Hillside specialist.  Plenty quick but capable of winning from a stalking position, the Miller-trained filly is strictly the one to beat.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give the edge on top to Storm the Hill.


RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Generous Pour; 7-Miz Tianjin; 11-Gemini Journey

Forecast: Gemini Journey drops to her lowest level ever ($8,000) in her second off the claim for Treece and seems good as any in this low-level affair for fillies and mares.  Two of her three career wins have come over the Santa Anita main track, most recently last summer in a $10,000 claimer, and her most recent runner-up effort earned a typically solid speed figure for her.  Miz Tianjin moves up a notch after winning a bottom-rung $6,250 affair and should be competitive on the raise for new trainer Pender.  She’s three-for-five lifetime over the local main track.  Generous Pour has dangerous early speed and could be long gone if not pressured early.  You have to toss her in.


RACE 10: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 8-Cruel Intention

Forecast: Cruel Intention won like a top colt in his debut and will be short priced favorite to come right back and capture this $200,000 state-bred stakes.  The Baffert-trained colt is more than fast enough on speed figures to win and there’s a strong likelihood he’ll move forward with that experience behind him.  From his outside draw, the son of Smiling Tiger can control the race as a no value rolling exotic single.


RACE 11: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 8-Offshore Affair; 9-Irish Heatwave; 11-Opus Won

Forecast:  Irish Heatwave has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and moves to grass, over which he is bred to excel on.  The Desormeaux-trained colt exits a stakes race as well, so everything looks positive for this juvenile colt who is listed at 5-1 on the morning line.  Opus Won is a filly tackling the boys, shows a recent bullet workout at San Luis Rey Downs for Baltas, and may be the most dangerous of the closing types.  Offshore Affair removes blinkers, stretches out, and may try gate-to-wire tactics.  His numbers are rising, and if he’s ever going to be successful routing, it’ll be in his first attempt.




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, November 3, 2018

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