Jeff Siegel’s Blog:  Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 17, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Sunday, February 17, 2019

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Jimmy Chila; 6-Falcone

Forecast: Falcone is intriguing at a price.  This is his first ever sprint and his first since being claimed by O’Neill (35% with a strong ROI with this angle).  Additionally, he gets a big break in the weights with the switch to talented bug boy Diaz, has a prior win over the local turf, and could enjoy this new role as a late-running sprinter.  We’ll try him on top at 10-1 on the morning line.  Jimmy Chila ran well over this course recently when second vs. similar, retains Rosario, and would appear to be the one to beat.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Conquest Flatterme; 4-Princess Kendra

Forecast: Princess Karenda, first off the claim for O’Neill (as previously mentioned, a high-percentage angle), comes off a nice win at this level, and should fire a similar shot again today.  She’s been first or second in 20 of 48 career starts, a thoroughly admirable record.  Conquest Flatterme was a voided claim in a slightly softer spot last month but we’ll assume she’s over whatever was bothering her.  The Cerin-trained mare has four career wins, three of which have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track, and has several prior speed figures good enough to beat this field.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:35 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Gallovie; 6-Shut It Up

Forecast:Shut It Up graduated over this course and distance in late December and has trained steadily since for O’Neill.  Drawn comfortably outside and catching a field without too much speed, the daughter of Violence looks well-spotted for a repeat score.  Gallovie had useful form in England last summer as a 2-year-old and might fit well with these.  The Baltas-trained filly gets Prat and Lasix while displaying an okay work tab, so we’ll toss her in as well.


​​​RACE 4: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Nice Work

Forecast: Nice Work crushed a maiden claiming field last month while earning a speed figure good enough to beat this starter’s allowance field, so let’s go with the Sadler-trained colt right back in this starter’s allowance main track sprint.  The son of Midnight Lute retains Rosario and probably will go lower than his morning line of 2-1.  We can use him as a rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Incensed; 6-Anatolian Heat

Forecast: Anatolian Heat takes a severe class drop seeking his winning level and may have found it in this turf sprint for $20,000 claimers.  Away since last summer but getting Prat for his comeback, the Miller-trained gelding has won at this five-furlong trip in the past, and if he’s anywhere near close to what he once was, he should be along in time.  Incensed returns from the Bay Area where he was a tad disappointing in his most recent start and was claimed by a sharp outfit.  We’re expecting the veteran gelding to snap back to his best form today over a course he’s been known to like.  He should be doing his best work from mid-pack.


​​RACE 6: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-He Be Mojo Risin; 3-Wild Bean

Forecast: ​Wild Bean chased an infinitely tougher straight maiden field in his debut while finishing a respectable fifth.  This drop to the maiden $50,000 ranks is warranted, and with the switch to Rosario this Hofmans-trained gelding looks primed to graduate.  He Be Mojo Risin, fourth in both of his career starts, is another maiden to maiden-claiming dropper and retains Bejarano.  Both of his previous starts came over a wet track; today we’ll find out what he can do on dry land.  Let’s double the race in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Wild Bean on extra tickets.


RACE 7: Post 3:38 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Risky Proposition; 2-Fight On; 3-Keep Quiet

Forecast: This highly-contentious second level allowance event has several possibilities; we’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough.  Risky Proposition makes his first start since finishing unplaced in the Hollywood Derby at Del Mar in early December, and while he’s facing older horses for the first time the Spawr-trained gelding has numbers that put him right there.  He’ll enjoy a good ground-saving trip from the rail, and with good racing luck looks capable of producing the last run.  He does have a prior win over this turf course, another plus.  Keep Quiet won gamely in his local debut for Miller in a similar affair and should be tough right back with Prat staying aboard.  The Elusive City gelding can be comfortable on the lead or from a stalking position, and from where he’s drawn he should fold into a nice early spot.  Fight On adds blinkers for the first time and could improve enough to a factor at a nice price (he’s 8-1 on the morning line.  Toss him in on a ticket or two.


​​RACE 8: Post 4:09 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Bitter Ring Home; 10-Paul’s Diva

Forecast: Bitter Ring Home has little to beat in this maiden $20,000 claiming main track miler and rates top billing by default.  The Drysdale-trained gelding has hit the board in his last three and should enjoy a cozy pace-stalking trip in a race that projects to be slowly run from start to finish.  Paul’s Diva is stuck way outside, but if he can negotiate a decent trip he should be in the hunt.  He appears to be the most dangerous of the closers.  In a race that probably is best left alone, will use both in our rolling exotics without really trusting either one.


RACE 9: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Kris’ Wild Kat; 5-Rinse and Repeat

Forecast: Kris’ Wild Kat drops sharply to the $25,000 non-winners of two league and against this group should be the controlling speed and never look back.  Bejarano stays aboard for Baltas, but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, this lightly-raced gelding probably won’t be offering much value.  Rinse and Repeat is a first-off-the-claim for Sadler, so improvement is possible.  He finished second in two of his last three starts, so his current form isn’t bad, but he’s 1-for-17 lifetime and clearly not one to bank on.  We’ll prefer these two in our rolling exotics but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.





Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 17, 2019

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