Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Sunday, November 3, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: B
Single: 3-Single Me Out
Forecast: Single Me Out is an eight-race maiden and probably not one to trust, but the j. Cassidy-trained gelding has rising speed figures and shouldn’t be bothered by the surface switch to grass. In the money in his last three, the four-year-old gelding surfaces in a below par maiden $50,000 claimer and with a repeat of his most recent start should be set to graduate. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single; if he goes appreciably lower, we’ll tread lightly or perhaps sit it out altogether.
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RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Zucchera; 6-Flying Blue
Forecast: The two main players in this maiden $30,000 claiming main track affair for fillies and mares are both dropping sharply in class and are trying the main track for the first time, so this race could easily turn out chaotic. Zucchera exits a productive race at Del Mar and has winning connections, so if will be surprising if she isn’t a strong factor against this modest group. Same can be said for Flying Blue, who actually has a dirt pedigree and may appreciate the switch to the main track after finishing a fair fourth in straight maiden company over the Golden Gate lawn in her most recent outing. Both have speed figures that are better than par for this level but, again, those numbers were earned on turf. You can double the race in your rolling exotics and simply pass.
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RACE 3: Post 12:31 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tyrannical Rex; 2-Cape Point; 4-Torosay
Forecast: The third race is a grass grab bag for older maidens sprinting five and one-half furlongs on grass. Tyrannical Rex ran quite well under these conditions in his debut but then was far back when stretched out over a distance of ground. Back around one turn today, the son of Fed Biz figures to be heard from in the final furlong. Torosay flashed good speed before fading in the same race that Tyrannical Rex finished second in. Blinkers go on today, so the son of Goldencents has a right to produce a forward move in this, his second career start. Cape Point is bred for turf (Temple City) and has shown some ability in workouts at Los Alamitos. It’s somewhat encouraging that J. Sadler chooses to debut the gelding in a straight maiden rather in a claimer, so on that basis alone he’s probably worth including in rolling exotic play in what on paper appears to be a modest affair.
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RACE 4: Post 1:03 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Oil Can Knight
Forecast: Oil Can Knight off slowly and never in the hunt when pitched too high in a strong first-level allowance sprint on grass last month but a repeat of his race before last – a highly-rated score vs. starter’s allowance foes – will be more than good enough to handle this $20,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds. The concern is the class drop – obviously his connections aren’t protecting him with this placement – and at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the son of Can the Man won’t be offering any wagering value. Single him in rolling exotic play of you like or just wait for better opportunities.
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RACE 5: Post 1:34 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Crystal Tribe; 8-Real Master; 9-Unapologetic
Forecast: Crystal Tribe was given a run in his U.S. debut when fifth without being knocked about in a similar first level allowance affair at Del Mar in late August and should be tighter and much more serious today. The well-bred son of Dansili retains D. Van Dyke and based on pedigree will appreciate this 10-furlong trip. If the J. Mullins-trained 3-year-old improves as much as well expect him, the Irish-bred colt, at 6-1 on the morning line, can be along in time at a nice price. Another ex-Euro, Real Master, puts on blinkers and has a right to continue to improve after earning a career top speed figure when a close fifth in a mini marathon at this level at Del Mar. His French form wasn’t great but good enough to make him competitive on this circuit at this level, and at 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth including in your exotics. Unapologetic removes blinkers in his second off-the-claim for hot trainer P. Miller while also benefitting from a break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy J. Velez. Three of his seven career wins have been accomplished over this turf course, so while his past pair of been below standard he does have some good races to go back to.
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RACE 6: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: B
Use:3-Tizamagician; 5-Taishan
Forecast: Taishan split the field in an uneventful debut at Del Mar in mid-August but has trained quite a bit better since so improvement is likely in this maiden special weight miler for two-year-olds. The son of Twirling Candy should handle two turns and be close up throughout with every chance. Tizamagician is the logical favorite (he’s 4/5 on the morning line) following an excellent runner-up effort to the highly regarded Honor A. P. over this track and distance last month. The son of Tiznow wound up 10 lengths clear of the rest in what certainly was a winning effort; not much more should be needed today. Taishan clearly will be the better price of the two so we’ll put him on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post 2:40 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Morning Cynn
Forecast: With very little to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claimer for older fillies and mares, Morning Cynn really shouldn’t miss this opportunity. The daughter of Paynter just failed as the even money favorite in a similar affair when winding up second, though she was more than nine lengths clear of the rest while earning a Beyer speed figure that if repeated today most likely would land her in the winner’s circle. At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the D. O’Neill-trained filly won’t offer any real wagering value so you can use her a rolling exotic single or just pass the race.
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RACE 8: Post 3:12 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Richmond Avenue; 5-Toinette
Forecast: Toinette is highly logical in the featured Goldikova S.-G2 over a mile on grass for fillies and mares, hence her morning line of 6/5. The N. Drysdale-trained filly has won three of her last four starts, including the recent Swingtime Stakes over this course and distance and this step up in class from listed to graded stakes won’t be an issue for the classy daughter of Scat Daddy. Richmond Avenue probably is worth using somewhere on your ticket as a saver or a back-up. She has performed consistently well in listed stakes company in England and France this year and is fresh off the plane with rising, competitive Timeform ratings. If she gets cover and settles, the daughter of Invincible Avenue has really turn it on late.
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RACE 9: Post 3:47 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Don’tteasethetiger
Forecast: The season finale is a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint that appears made to order for Don’teasethetiger. Dropping a notch on the class ladder after encountering a bit of a rough go in a $16,000 affair last month, the Vallejo-trained gelding has a series of recent speed figures that are good enough to beat this field and if he breaks with his field he’ll be on or near the lead throughout. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
