The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, October 14, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Colormemoney; 7-Don’t Stalk Me
Forecast: Colormemoney won with a solid figure at Los Alamitos when facing a similar 3-yea-olds-only field and in fact has scored in three of his last five starts. Both of his prior outings at Santa Anita were poor, but those races came last year and he’s logically a better type now. However, he’s picking up weight today after what appears to be a hard, taxing effort, so at 2-1 on the morning line he’s hardly a value pick, though certainly a contender. Don’t Stalk Me, second as the favorite to Colormemoney when they met in late August at Del Mar, has run well over the Santa Anita main track in the past and seems the main threat. Both of his career scores have been accomplished at this abbreviated five and one-half furlong trip. These are the two we’ll be including in rolling exotic play (go deeper if you feel the need), but this is not a race that we’ll otherwise participate in.
RACE 2: Post 1:05 PT. Grade: C
Use: 5-Sir Eddie; 7-Sidepocket Action
Forecast: This maiden special weight affair restricted to California-bred sprinters came up extremely light, which is why Sir Eddie, a beaten favorite in four of seven career starts with descending speed figures, finds himself at 2-1 on the morning line. This also will be his first start on dirt since he finished a fading fourth in an off-the-turf event in his debut way back in March. The Square Eddie gelding may win by default, but he’s impossible to back with any degree of confidence. Sidepocket Action finished seven lengths in front of Sir Eddie when the met in that March race, an effort that should be more than good enough to beat this field. However, he’s been away for nearly six month and now is in the Knapp barn, though the work tab seems reasonable. This is another race we’ll pass; rolling exotic players should tread lightly.
RACE 3: Post 1:38 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Blondy’s Reward; 2-If You Like It
Forecast: If You Like It is logically the top pick – she’s won 11 of 34 during her career – but on paper has a treacherous pattern, having been claimed for $16,000 two races back and then being a voided claim for $8,000in her most recent outing. Today she hits rock bottom and is 2-1 on the morning line. Does she have another good one left? Who knows? Blondy’s Reward exits much better races and clearly the controlling speed from the rail, but she’s always been vulnerable under pressure and is just 2-for-30 lifetime, though one of those victories came over the Santa Anita main track. Yesterday the main track played pro-speed – it would be nice for her if that same bias existed today – but low-profile connections do not inspire confidence. This another race that might be best avoided.
RACE 4: Post: 2:11 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Data Hawk
Forecast: Data Hawk ran well when second up north when facing straight maiden company last month on grass and is realistically spotted in this expensive maiden claimer. There should be enough pace in here to compliment his style, and with good racing luck he should be along in time. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 5: Post 2:44 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-It’sjustanillusion; 5-Chasing Yesterday
Forecast: American Pharoah’s half-sister Chasing Yesterday won her debut in sensation fashion at Del Mar but failed to produce that effort when given a tough task after shipping to Saratoga for the Spinaway Stakes last month. Back home and training like she did prior to her debut, the Baffert-trained filly looks primed to regain here winning form, but at 6/5 on the morning line there’s not much we can do with her. It’sjustanillusion graduated at first asking with a strong speed figure and looks likely to be the controlling speed again. The daughter of Uncle Mo could easily be this good. We’ll prefer ‘Yesterday on top for whatever that’s worth.
RACE 6: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Cats Blame; 8-R Cha Cha
Forecast: R Cha Cha has run reasonably well over this course in the past, lands the cozy outside post and gets a break in the weights Yes, he was a voided claim in his most recent start so there’s a question of condition, but a strong recent gate work is a positive, so we’ll assume he’s in good enough shape to fire his best shot. Worth noting is that his race is restricted to non-winners of three, so the raise in class for open $20,000 to restricted $35,000 isn’t really a raise at all. Cats Blame has the blinkers off angle that we like, though his lack of tactical speed over this course is problematic. We’ll use him on a ticket or two as a back-up.
RACE 7: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Sold It; 4-Tiz a Sharpie
Forecast: Sold It has trained like a quick type for O’Neill and is bred to win early (The Factor) so finds an excellent spot for a debut win in what appears to be a below par field of straight maiden juvenile fillies, which is to say there are no Baffert runners in it. Tiz a Sharpie has the benefit of a prior run, a fair third place effort at Los Alamitos last month. We’ll use her as a back-up, but the primary punch goes to Sold It.
RACE 8: Post 4:15 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Surfing Star; 5-Avanti Bello
Forecast: Avanti Bello hits hard in this state-bred optional-claiming level, though just missing as the favorite against a similar bunch at Los Alamitos last month. He’s always liked this track (first or second in eight of 17 career starts) and is reunited with “win rider” Prat. Surfing Star broke poorly and then raced over the very deep rail when unplaced in his comeback at Del Mar in August. We’ll toss that race out and give this lightly-raced colt a chance to wire the field in his first try around two turns. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 9: Post 4:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Artie B Good; 6-Flip the Coin Jan; 9-Afleet Ascent
Forecast: Afleet Ascent should enjoy a good trip outside and exits a strong 3-year-old stakes. He’s effective on any surface an should have no excuses. Flip the Coin Jan is improving with racing and may have found his niche as a turf sprinter. Artie B Good earned a strong “buried” number in his only prior outing over this course and could come running late. At 8-1 on the morning line, he’s worth including in rolling exotic play.