The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, October 28, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Tiz Wonderfully; 3-Sauce On Side; 6-Mongolian Humor
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this six-runner starter’s allowance miler for fillies and mares but otherwise pass the race. Sauce On Side, first or second in her last four starts, fits very nicely with these based on speed figures and is the logical favorite at 8/5 on the morning line. If a decent pace materializes this daughter of Violence could be tough to contain in the final furlong. Mongolian Humor has been racing on grass lately, but she might be more effective on dirt. Bejarano should have her on or near the lead throughout. Tiz Wonderfully sports a bullet half mile workout since raced and looked good breaking her maiden at this trip two runs back. From the rail, she should have every chance with a ground-saving trip.
RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Princess Roi; 2-Twirling Apples
Forecast: Princess Roi may have been in a tad too tough in the Solana Beach Stakes at Del Mar last time out, but she isn’t today. The Baltas-trained filly should be the controlling speed from the rail and be tough to catch if not pressured early. Twirling Apples ran well in a restricted claiming affair down the Hillside Course earlier this month but earned a number that makes her competitive despite the class hike. She’s won at this distance in the past and should draft into a nice pace-stalking position.
RACE 3: Post 1:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Aced; 6-Candy Cornell; 7-Vander Kelen
Forecast: We’ll triple the third race in rolling exotic play in what looks to be a better than par race for the level. Vander Kelen has done some good work in the morning leading up to his debut and in an open fray the son of New Year’s Day could be tough at first asking. The barn doesn’t win with many first-timers but this gelding could prove to be the exception. Aced certainly is the logical main contender. Second in both of his starts with decent speed figures, the Eurton-trained colt should be in the fray every step of the way. Candy Cornell, away since last December, has trained like he’s fit enough for a big effort and could easily be a better type this time around.
RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Comes the Dream; 2-Rapid Red; 6-The Big Train
Forecast: Comes the Dream ran well to be second in a similar spot at Del Mar in early September and has trained quite sharply since for Puype. He’s won twice over the local lawn in the past, and if he enjoys good racing luck, he’ll be dangerous in the final furlong. Rapid Red, second for $32,000 last time out, drops a notch and projects to be prominent throughout. He’s strong on numbers and retains Bejarano. The Big Train, a close third in the same race Rapid Red exits, retains Prat and is another that looks dangerous from off the pace. All three should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 5: Post 2:40 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Getaloadofthis has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for Hollendorfer, is adding blinkers, and has looked very sharp in the morning since his last race. A little will go a long way in this bottom-rung maiden claimer, so let’s try this son of Graydar and hope that he can make the lead and keep on going. At 7/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:12 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Fashionably Fast; 8-Hollywood Square; 11-North County Guy
Forecast: This slalom event for first-level California-bred older horses is a typical grass grab bag requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Fashionably Fast is trying turf for the first time but if he can duplicate his dirt form on the lawn he can win. He missed in a photo in a Fresno main track stakes earlier this month while almost 10 lengths clear of the rest; not much more should be needed today. Hollywood Square has dangerous early speed and a prior win over the course, so he’s a “must use” in the exotics. With just four career starts, the son of Square Eddie may have some upside that most of the others don’t. North County Guy, second-off-the-claim for Baltas and once again protected, is a one-paced grinder but could be heard from late under Prat. We’ll prefer Fashionably Fast on top but use all three in rolling exotic play.
RACE 7: Post 3:43 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Haylord; 5-Topgallant; 7-Glorious Crown
Forecast: This is another messy affair, this one for restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimers over a mile. Glorious Crown, a decent third for $25,000 last time out on turf, drops well below his claim level for Morey, switches to the main track, and should beat this field if healthy. However, he may be a hard one to trust, so we’ll also include Topgallant and Haylord in our rolling exotics. The former plummets from starter’s $50,000 for high-percentage trainer Wong and should improve at this level, while the latter has hit the board in four of his last five and has a prior win over this track and distance. Best advice here is to use as many as you can afford to.
RACE 8: Post 4:14 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tatters to Riches; 4-St. Joe Bay
Forecast: St. Joe Bay should have things to himself on the front end and could get brave in this main track miler. The Sadler-trained gelding is known primarily as a sprinter, but he can get this trip under the circumstances that he’ll be seeing today. Tatters to Riches missed some training time recently with a minor problem but should be fit enough for another big effort following his convincing score in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. From the rail, he’ll have every chance from a stalking position. Both should be used in your rolling exotics; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying St. Joe Bay.
RACE 9: Post 4:46 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Falcone; 9-Implicitly; 10-Breakers Isle
Forecast: Falcon has been away since November of last year but if he returns as well as he left the son of Quality Road should outclass this maiden claiming group. Though the work tab is uninspiring, this barn has good stats with layoff runners so we’re expecting a good effort. Implicitly returns with blinkers after showing a bit of ability sprinting down the hill in a pair of races last spring. The work tab at San Luis Rey Downs gives every indication that he’s plenty fit. Breakers Isle is poorly drawn outside but this will be his first try in a claimer and he should greatly appreciate the softer company. Against this bunch he should be running on late.