The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, October 7, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Siberian Irish; 5-Miss Boom Boom
Forecast: Miss Boom Boom just missed by a nose in a straight $40,000 claimer at Del Mar last month, so we know she’s in form, and the veteran mare has a history of running well over the Santa Anita turf course. She seems capable of producing the last run. Siberian Iris looks on paper to be a solid threat off her best effort, but she’s never been one to trust, having failed the last four times she went favored. We’ll use her but press with extra tickets keying Miss Boom Boom on top.
RACE 2: Post 1:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Wheresthemoneyjack; 3-We Go Now; 6-Typoon Harry
Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) main track claiming miler drew only six runners but it’s a tough event and requires a spread. Typhoon Harry, a first-off-the-claim for O’Neill (25% with a strong flat-profit), seems likely to produce a forward move after finishing a close second in a softer spot at Los Alamitos. He’s one above his conditions, having won just once, and he’s yet to hit the board in four starts at Santa Anita, but with the switch to Bejarano he should draft into a comfortable pace-prompting position and have every chance. Wheresthemoneyjack moves up a level after a solid win in an extended sprint at Del Mar and if he can turn in two alike – no sure thing – he’ll be tough right back. We Go Now is re-equipped with blinkers after being stuck on thirds in his last three outings. At 6-1 on the morning line’s he’s got a chance, especially if front-running tactics are employed. Tread lightly here.
RACE 3: Post 1:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Private Joke; 6-Bitte
Forecast: Bitte takes a nosedive to the bottom claiming level in his first start since June for Hess in an obvious suspicious class drop. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the lightly-raced gelding will be tough to beat if he has one good one left, but that’s a big if, especially at 9/5 on the morning line. Private Joke, claimed in his last pair and now in the high percentage Billy Morey barn, likes to settle and make a run and a repeat of his race before last over the conventional dirt surface at Pleasanton puts him right there. We’ll try to get by using only these two in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post: 2:14 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Twirling Apples; 8-Operandi
Forecast: Operandi, first-off-the-claim for Lerner, has won over this downhill turf course in the past and switches to Prat, who should have her on or near the lead throughout. She’s a strong contender off her best race and offers value at or near her morning line of 6-1. Twirling Apples was pulled up at Del Mar when racing over a deep dirt track that she clearly wasn’t comfortable with. The Cerin-trained filly seems likely to bounce back in a big way today because she’s a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and her recent workouts have been good.
RACE 5: Post 2:44 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Yuvetsi; 5-Anonymity
Forecast: Yvetsi is fresh from a sharp win in the Rancho Bernardo Stakes at Del Mar in a career-top performance, and if she duplicates that effort today she’s liable to win right back. The concern is that she’s forced to pick up 7 lbs., and that represents a negative five-pound weight shift when compared to her chief rival, Anonymity, who lands the cozy outside post and rates a very good chance to make amends for her failure at 40 cents on the dollar in the Rancho Bernardo. We’re expecting her to do just that, so we’ll put the Richard Mandella-trained filly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 6: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Lucky Student; 5-Gemini Journey; 6-Kristie’s Heart
Forecast: This is yet another very tough race, a $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Lucky Student comes off a nice score at Los Alamitos in a competitive starter’s allowance sprint and shows six prior victories over the Santa Anita main track. If she leaves cleanly from her rail post, the veteran mare should be on or near the lead throughout. Gemini Journey usually hits the board, has a pair of previous scores over the local dirt surface, and should find herself in a good stalking spot. Kristie’s Heart, a closing second behind Lucky Student last time out, projects to be heard from again in the final furlong and is worth tossing in.
RACE 7: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Red Envelope; 8-Captain Buzzkill; 9-Sir Eddie
Forecast: Sir Eddie is back sprinting where he belongs and has run well over this course in the past. He prefers to settle and pounce and should get that kind of trip today. We’ll put him slightly on top in a spread race in rolling exotic play. Red Envelope must overcome the rail, but both of his career outings were quite good and will put him in the hunt if he takes to this turf course. We’re expecting Smith to let him roll from the bell. Captain Buzzkill has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and should be a late threat. He’s worth using at 12-1 on the morning line.
RACE 8: Post 4:15 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-I Belong to Becky; 5-Stay in You Lane
Forecast: I Belong to Becky is improving with racing based on speed figures, though he was beaten at 7/5 when second in his most outing. With another forward move today, he’ll have every chance to make amends. Stay In Yo Lane, third in the same race ‘Becky exits when making his debut, has a right to improve with that effort behind him and should be in the thick of it throughout. The winner likely will be one or the other, so we’ll double the race in rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out.
RACE 9: Post 4:45 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Just Grazed Me
Forecast: Just Grazed Me didn’t get the best of trips when second as the favorite in the Torrey Pines Stakes at Del Mar in August but she’s trained splendidly second, lands the good rail, and seems ready to return to winning form. However, at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she may not offer much value. However, we can use her as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 10: Post 5:15 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Quebec; 9-Cordiality
Forecast: If Okinawa and Fahan Mura cancel each other out – they’re both need-the-lead types with an immense amount of early speed – this race logically should be won by a closer. How about Quebec? The Baltas-trained filly looked good winning from a lesser field at Del Mar, has trained very well since, and seems quite capable of continuing her upward mobility at 10-1 on the morning line. Cordiality is another that can win from off the pace; the Glatt-trained mare has taken three out of her last five starts and is strong fit on numbers. Assuming both committed speed-types remain in the field, we’ll try to get past this race using just two, with preference on top to Quebec based strictly on price.