The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Thursday, February 28, 2019
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Sugary; 4-Greater Glory
Forecast: Sugary drops to her lowest level ever and her form on the surface is uninspiring, but on speed figures she dominates and that’s why she’s 6/5 on the morning line. Clearly, she offers no value at that price, but in this league she looks tough to beat. Greater Glory is worth including on a ticket or two; she was a troubled fifth in a similar spot last month and probably is a bit better than the line will show. This is not a race we’re planning on getting too involved with.
RACE 2: Post 1:33 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Our Romance
Forecast: Our Romance has done enough in the morning to be primed for a major effort first crack out of the box, and she looks very well-meant in this state-bred maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds. From her cozy outside post, the D’Amato-trained daughter of Archarcharch should have every chance to secure an ideal pace-prompting trip in field that drew just five runners. We’ll use her as a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 3-1.
RACE 3: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Cajun Treasure
Forecast: Cajun Treasure has never sprinted in his four career starts but finally gets a chance at what we suspect will prove to be his ideal trip. The Eurton-trained loomed a strong threat but hung in an off-the-turf miler in his comeback last month but that effort should have him set for a significant forward move today, especially with the return to grass. The switch to Rosario is another major plus, so we’ll make the son of Treasure Beach a strong straight play and rolling exotic single at or around his morning line of 5/2.
RACE 4: Post 2:36 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Captain N. Barron; 4-Victor’s Show; 5-Rac
Forecast: There’s nothing to trust in this maiden $20,000 sprint for older horses – most of them have been thoroughly exposed – so we’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Victor’s Show finished second in a similar event earlier this month while earning a par speed figure for this level and not much more will be needed today. Captain N Barron has finished second in five of his last six starts. He’ll be well-backed again today but just can’t seem to finish the deal. Maybe today will be his day. Rac is a first-timer trained by Yakteen, whose first-timers have been doing well of late. The son of Informed certainly won’t have to be a world beater to act with these, and the work tab shows signs of life. Toss him in.
RACE 5: Post 3:07 PT. Grade: B
Forecast: Smoovie has little to beat in this maiden special weight state-bred turf miler for older fillies and mares, so we’ll put her on top in what will be her first career start around two turns. She can be the controlling speed if she wants to be, and her pedigree suggests the trip should be within her range. We’ll single her in our rolling exotics and then consider her in the straight pool as well if the price doesn’t drop much lower than her 5/2 morning line.
RACE 6: Post 3:38 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Time for Suzzie; 2-Sierra Sunset
Forecast: Sierra Sunset was no factor after bobbling at the start when stretched out to a mile last time out while facing much tougher foes, but today she’s back sprinting and back at her proper level, so we’re expecting the Bonde-trained daughter of Sierra Sunset to regain her best form. A repeat of her easy maiden claiming win two runs back probably will be good enough against this group. Time for Suzzie is another class dropper likely to snap back against this group, though the rail post does her no favors. She’s a strong fit on speed figures and is the likely choice and one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 7: Post 4:09 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Surfside Sunset; 4-According to Buddy; 5-Candyman Garret
Forecast: Restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers sprint five furlongs on turf in a messy affair that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to get by going three-deep, but you should use as many as you can afford to. Surfside Sunset, second off a layoff for Hess, switches to Rosario and is strong in the speed figure department. He seems as good as any. Candyman Garret, first off the $16,000 claim for Mullins, returns after a six-month layoff and it’s encouraging that the son of Overanalyze is coming back for a higher tag. His only prior race on grass was strong and the work tab is sharp for a barn that has solid stats with runners off the bench. According to Buddy has good speed and should appreciate this abbreviated trip. The Palma-trained gelding seems likely to be prominent throughout and have every chance.
RACE 8: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Seven Oxen; 4-Deep Thinker; 6-You Must Chill
Forecast: Deep Thinker makes his U.S. debut in a winnable spot for Glatt and should fire a big shot while getting Rosario and Lasix. His form in Ireland looks good enough to beat a soft field such as this. You Must Chill, in the money in his last four starts, may lack a winning punch but should at least land in the frame. Seven Oxen projects to enjoy a nice ground-saving trip from the rail, so we’ll include him as well despite his modest series of speed figures.