Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, October 18, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Thursday, October 18, 2018


RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-C. C. Zipp; 5-Midnight Lilly

Forecast: Restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile on the main track in the Thursday opener, with C. C. Zipp dropping to her lowest level ever as the 8/5 morning line favorite.  This is her second start off a layoff for Hollendorfer after a sprint tightener at Los Alamitos and the daughter of City Zip looks on paper to be the controlling speed; however, she’s always been vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong.  She can win but at the price there’s little value to be found.  Midnight Lilly was a recent winner of a $16,000 non-winners of two dirt mile affair at Los Alamitos from off the pace and a similar effort makes her the one to beat.  Two nice workouts since that mid-September win indicates the Palma-trained filly is maintaining her form.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:31 PT. Grade: C

Use:  2-Reign On; 3-Allaboutmike; 4-Forever Juanito; 8-Gonna Fly Now

Forecast: This downhill slalom event for $20,000 claimers is a complete raffle.  Use as many as you can afford to.  Allaboutmike has won three races over the local lawn and exits a tougher race, so the veteran son of Zensational may deserve a very slight edge on top.  He has plenty of zip but has won from a stalking position, so Bejarano can assess the pace flow and go from there.  Reign On is another with good prior form over the course and today gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Figueroa.  He exits the same tough race as Allaboutmike and should improve.  Forever Juanito takes a nosedive in class and has numbers that make him dangerous, so we’ll toss him in along with Gonna Fly Now, who ran well in his only prior start on grass way back in 2013.  Spread, spread, spread.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Chapis; 3-Eskenforadrink; 5-Peachy

Forecast: ​ This is another difficult affair, a maiden claiming main track miler for older fillies and mares.  Tread lightly.  Eskenforadrink missed at 3/5 at Los Alamitos so she’s a hard one to trust, but the Miller-trained filly is stretching out for the first time and has the pedigree to enjoy the extra ground.  She gets weight off with the switch to Figueroa and projects to be the controlling speed.  Chapis missed by a neck in a similar spot at this distance at Los Alamitos last month and not much more will be needed to win today.  Peachy ran well in only prior route try and she stretches out again after a non-threatening third in a sprint at this level 12 days ago.  She should improve enough to pose a threat.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Norwegian; 7-Disco Tale

Forecast:  This messy maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies is another that is borderline inscrutable.  Norwegian chased straight maidens in her debut at Los Alamitos, takes a realistic class drop to the maiden $30,000 level, adds blinkers, and picks up Prat.  If she can run, this will be an ideal spot to show it.  Disco Tale has hit the board in three of her last four starts and has earned speed figures that make her a contender.  At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including somewhere.


​RACE 5: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  3-Dominating Woman; 6-Swirling

Forecast: Swirling shows two excellent outings over this tricky Hillside course, and in her second start off a long layoff the Sadler-trained daughter of Twirling Candy seems primed for a major effort.  She has enough tactical speed to settle within range and then blast home in the final furlong.  Dominating Woman is dangerous at any distance or on any surface and is fresh from a two-turn dirt win at Los Alamitos vs. a slightly lesser field.  She likes the front end and could be quick enough to control the pace in a field without too much early speed.  Let’s try Swirling on top but include both in our rolling exotic play.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-All I Can Say; 4-Sunset Green Flash; 5-Git On Your Pulpit

Forecast: Git On Your Pulpit has finished second four times in seven career starts, so he’s overdue for a win and may finally graduate in this modest state-bred maiden $50,000 claiming sprint.  Second with a career top speed figure over a mile at Los Alamitos last month, the son of Lucky Pulpit turns back in trip and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position.  Sunset Green Flash is a first-timer showing a 58 4/5 seconds bullet workout earlier this month.  Let’s see if he can run to that flashy drill today.  All I Can Say removes blinkers, returns to the main track and looks capable of making some noise from off the pace.  These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play; feel free to go deeper if your budget allows.


​​​RACE 7: Post 4:08 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Powder; 6-Judicial

Forecast: Powder is genuine and consistent and well-spotted in this optional claimer for state-bred fillies and mares.  She has a good pace-stalking style and should enjoy this extended sprint trip.  Judicial lands the cozy outside post, has rising numbers, and returns to the Santa Anita main track, over which she graduated two races back.  The edge on top goes to Powder, but either once can win so we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:38 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 3-Kookie Gal

Forecast:  Kookie Gal is a first-timer by Boisterous from a mare by Comic Strip and therefore is bred to enjoy turf.  She makes her debut two-turning on the sod for a barn that that has solid stats with first time starters and the work tab at San Luis Rey Downs indicates she’s fit and ready for a top try first crack out of the box.  In a wide-open grass grab bag for two-year-old state-bred maiden fillies, let’s take a stand and make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, October 18, 2018

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