Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, October 25, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Thursday, October 25, 2018

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Subic Bay; 2-Peach Cove

Forecast: Subic Bay ran into a roadblock in mid-stretch and lost her best chance when fourth in a similar $20,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares earlier this month.  She retains Baze and with good racing luck should be in the thick of things at the wire.  Peach Cove, the winner of that race with a good rally-wide trip, picks up two lbs. off that victory but must be considered the one to beat right back.  Let’s try to survive and advance using only these two in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:31 PT. Grade: X

Single:  2-Claudelle

Forecast: Claudelle has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for Sadler (superior with this angle) and progressive form that indicates another forward move is likely.  The daughter of Candy Ride may have been best when second at even money in her most recent start – she lacked room at the head of the lane and lost valuable momentum – but today switches to Van Dyke and should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position.  At 6/5 on the morning line she’ll be too short to embrace in the straight pool, but we can use her a no-value rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Kristi’s Copilot; 5-Blackout; 8-Vending Machine

Forecast: ​Kristi’s Copilot may be the controlling speed in this $32,000 claiming turf sprint and given that type of trip the Yakteen-trained gelding could be tough to get by.  A winner over this course and distance last June, the hard-hitting gelding returns to grass, shortens in trip, and should fire his best shot.  Blackout, now in the Miller barn, has the proper style for this trip and switches to Prat, but while he fits on figures the French-bred gelding hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since 2016.  Vending Machine, freshened for two months by Mullins, can turn it on late, has two prior wins over the local lawn, and may be the most dangerous of the closers.  We’ll include all three in rolling exotic play and then press with extra tickets keying Krisiti’s Copilot on top.


RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Lookie Loo; 2-Awesome Anywhere; 4-Stone Hands

Forecast:  This is a tough, contentious second-level allowance sprint and requires a spread.  Lookie Loo has solid form at this level and can be effective sprinting or routing, though we suspect he’s most effective around one turn.  With good racing luck from the rail, the Baffert-trained colt looks capable of stalking and then pouncing when set down at the head of the lane.  Awesome Anywhere ran away and hid from a lesser field over this track and distance earlier this month when earning a career top speed figure.  Undefeated in two starts since joining the Hollendorfer barn and a winner of five of 10 career starts, this genuine and consistent gelding is a “must use” in the exotics.  Stone Hands, first-off-the-claim for Sadler, has an effective style for this trip, switches to Baze, and should draft into a comfortable stalking position and have every chance from there.


​RACE 5: Post 3:08 PT. Grade: B+

Single:  11-Come On Kat

Forecast: Come On Kat plummets from maiden special weight to maiden $20,000 claiming after flashing good speed but fading late in both of her starts to date.  She figures to stick a whole lot better at this level from her advantageous outside draw, but at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower the Baltas-trained filly won’t offer much in the way of value.  If she’s too short to play in the straight pool, we can at least use her as a rolling exotic single.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:40 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 1-East Rand

Forecast: East Rand, an also-eligible scratch earlier this month, makes his first start since being claimed in mid-August for $50,000 by Yakteen and shows up protected in a first-level allowance affair over a mile on turf.  Beaten as the choice when possibly best last time out, the son of Denman switches to Prat, lands the good rail, and looks primed for a major effort over a course he’s run well over in the past.  At 7/2 on the morning line he offers a bit of value in both the straight pool and as a single in rolling exotic play;


​​​RACE 7: Post 4:12 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Ransomed; 5-Princess Dorian; 6-Duranga

Forecast: This highly-competitive starter’s handicap for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares offers several possibilities, so we’ll go three deep and hope to get by.  Ransomed was far back in a fast, highly-rated miler vs. much tougher foes last time out but is properly spotted today and should rebound with a big effort.  First or second in eight of 14 career starts, the Belvoir-trained mare seems most effective at this six-furlong distance, so we’ll put her on top.  Duranga, a voided claim for $32,000 last time but protected today by Mulhall, must be doing well and is worth a look, though she’ll need to step it up a bit in the speed figure department.  Prat stays aboard and knows her well.  Princess Dorian, protected in her first-off-the-claim for a San Luis Rey Downs-based low-profile outfit, has three prior wins over the Santa Anita main track and was more than six lengths clear of the rest with a career top speed figure last time out.  A repeat of that effort today puts her right there.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:44 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 7-Beyond Pleasure; 9-Lucky Knickers; 10-Sweet Congrats

Forecast:  Maiden claiming older fillies and mares sprint down the hill in the finale.  Lady Knickers finished second in a similar affair over this course and distance last month and not much more will be needed to beat this group.  She’s logically the one to beat but seems unattractive at the price (she’s 8/5 on the morning line).  Sweet Congrats, a closing fifth in the same race ‘Knickers exits, has run well under these conditions in the past and will have clear sailing from her outside draw.  Beyond Pleasure shows up in a seller for the first time for Baltas, switches to Prat, and seems likely to receive plenty of play in her first try on grass.  She’s slow on numbers but could easily be a better type than shown.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, October 25, 2018

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