Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Thursday, October 3, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Cellar Door
Forecast: Cellar Door took a clear lead into the stretch in a similar maiden turf sprint for fillies and mares at Del Mar last month and then hit a wall, eventually winding up fifth after looking like the winner a furlong from home. She continues to impress in the morning, so we’re going to assume that she’ll repeat the quality of her debut effort, a fast-closing second that earned a speed figure good enough to win today. She may prefer patient handling, so it will be interesting to see if the trainer/jockey combo of J. Mullins and A. Gryder opt for that strategy. Based on a recent sharp main track workout, the daughter of Awesome Again should be set for a bounce-back effort, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Rattle; 3-Winsinfashion
Forecast: The second race, a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 sprint for fillies and mares, drew just five starters, so there’s not much we can do with it. Rattle has won her last pair, most recently earning a career top speed figure when taking a non-winners of two Los Alamitos sprint for this claiming price last month. She should be quick enough from the rail to establish the running and then keep on going. Winsinfashion has a prior win over the local main track and steadily rising speed figures. She’ll most likely have every chance from a stalking position, similar to the trip she enjoyed in a Del Mar win two runs back. Preference on top goes to Rattle but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Fort Love; 4-Muthhila
Forecast: Here’s another restricted (nw-2 $25,000) claimer for fillies and mares, this one over a mile on turf that has two main contenders. Maryland shipper Fort Love, away for 11 months and showing up for a tag for the first time, can beat this field if she returns as well as she left. The work tab is okay – not great – but on pure numbers she deserves the edge for a barn that has okay stats with layoff runners. Muthhila is still seeking her first U.S. win but the Irish-bred filly has rising numbers, and that combined with a class drop makes her dangerous. The switch to hot-riding A. Cedeno won’t hurt, either. Let’s prefer Fort Love on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Incredibly Lucky; 6- Sheza Factor
Forecast: Sheza Factor lands the cozy outside post in this six-runner extended sprint for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming fillies and mares and projects to enjoy a soft pace-stalking/pressing trip and have every chance to register her first win since July of 2018. Her numbers are solid, she sports a bullet three furlong workout last week, and E. Roman stays aboard and knows her well. Incredibly Luck graduated at Del Mar for $50,000 maiden claiming last time out and is realistically spotted in her first try vs. winners. She’ll have to overcome the rail but should be prominent throughout. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while preferring Sheza Factor on top.
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RACE 5: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Great Return; 5-Lucky Peridot
Forecast: Great Return has only one way to go – on the lead every step of the way – and gate-to-wire tactics again will be employed in this second-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. Though she was worn down late in a similar affair at Del Mar last time out, the daughter of Exchange Rate earned a career top speed figure in defeat and sports a solid, healthy work pattern since then for the R. Mandella barn. Lucky Peridot is progressing nicely for P. Miller, and while she’s slower on speed figures that ‘Return the Florida-bred filly could be dangerous with another forward move. She rallied against soft splits to beat a lesser field last time out, and in a race that should have a faster than par pace the daughter of Itsmyluckyday could be dangerous with a little help up front. Great Return deserves top billing but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-An American Jet; 5-My Journey
Forecast: This extended sprint for bottom-rung ($20,000) maiden claimers doesn’t have a whole lot in it, and we expect the winner will be either An American Jet or My Journey, the first two favorites on the morning line. Both should be used in rolling exotic play. An American Jet has rising numbers and the proper style for seven furlongs, and the lightly-raced son of Ghostzapper appears capable of producing the last run based on his most recent effort. He gets a positive jockey switch to G. Franco, and in a field without much speed he should be closer to the early pace than he’s accustomed to. My Journey plummets from straight maiden company, shortens to a sprint, tries dirt for the first time, and catches a field with very little known early speed. Against this group the R. Baltas-trained gelding could get brave with a loose on the lead type of trip.
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RACE 7: Post 4:08 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 10-Prance
Forecast: Prance was given a run in her debut when splitting the field in a similar maiden $50,000 claiming turf router for fillies and mares at Del Mar and today will get serious, as many runners from the N. Drysdale barn do with an educational run under their belt. The daughter of Tapizar finished willingly to beaten only four lengths without being knocked about and has returned to train well enough to indicate that a forward move is likely. Poorly drawn but with R. Bejarano staying aboard, she offers excellent price value, so we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic and hope to get close to her morning line of 8-1.
