By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 4-A Crown for Kitten; 2-Beachgrass; 3-Unfaithful Ways
Forecast: Maiden claiming sophomore fillies meet over a mile in the Saturday opener. No result would surprise. A Crown for Kitten shows the always-important straight maiden to maiden claiming class drop and may have found her friends. Though she’s yet to hit the board in four starts, the T. Yakteen-trained filly has numbers that fit, shows a healthy work pattern, gets Lasix (the whole field does for the first time), and should be bearing down from the quarter pole home. Beachgrass ran well at this level three races back when claimed by D. O’Neill and her grass sprint at Del Mar vs. tougher wasn’t bad. In a modest field, she’s a threat. Unfaithful Ways has rising speed figures and could continue her improving pattern routing on turf for the first time. Toss her in a race in.
Notable Workouts:
Ryano Rose (January 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.3h). Grade: C
Came the final three furlongs in :12.2 and :38.2 under mild urging after appearing green approaching the head of the lane and wanting to lug out briefly. Bred for grass so maybe that will help but right now looks to be a modest maiden claiming type.
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Unfaithful Ways (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4hg). Grade: C+
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In blinkers, always best over Table for Two (4f, :49.2hg) while moderately ridden throughout in gate drill with splits of :25.3, :37.2 and :50 flat on our watches, slow early but fair to moderate late. Daughter of Street Boss shows improving form and should eventually find a soft maiden claiming field she can beat. Added distance shouldn’t be an issue.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-American Admiral; 2-Invisible War
Forecast: Just five entrants in this straight maiden middle distance main track event for older horses. American Admiral, once a $1.3 million yearling purchase, has had six chances to graduate but his form is improving, and he may have found a winning sport. Beaten a head in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month with a career top speed figure, the son of American Pharoah won’t need much more than that to handle this assignment. Invisible War, in the money in three of his last four starts, is a one-paced grinder making his second local start for J. Sadler and is another that appears to be heading in the right direction. His Beyer speed figures have risen in each outing and with another forward move today the son of Exaggerator should be tough to beat, especially if he can make the running in a race projected to be slow early. The switch to Johnny V. is another positive factor.
Notable Workouts:
Invisible War (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: C+
Worked in the dark inside Big Switch (5f, 1:00.2h) and was second best as expected, final half mile in :23.3 and :48.3, ridden some through the lane but unable to keep pace in the final furlong. Looks about the same, younger stakes-winning workmate is really good.
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Magnificent (December 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B-
Was let roll down the backstretch and was ridden through the lane in solo drill for Shirreffs, final half mile in :23.1 and :49.2, understandably slowing up late. Freshened since September, recently gelded, may display improved early speed when he returns.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Sugary; 3-Dutch Painting; 6-Zabava
Forecast: Here’s another race we’ll tread lightly in. We could see three of the six winning, so we’ll spread the race but otherwise pass. Trainer J. Wong has two main players, including the genuine and consistent Sugary (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) and the intriguing Northern California invader Dutch Painting (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1). The former is a four-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, is solid on numbers, and should fire her usual good shot. ‘Painting, first off the claim for a stable that hits at a remarkable 28% with this angle, could be quite dangerous as the controlling speed, though she probably doesn’t need the lead to win with her best effort. Also worth tossing in is Zabava (TOC=3-1; ML=7/2), a voided claim for $40,000 during the fall meeting but a two-time winner (from three starts) over the local lawn and with nine victories from 33 career outings. She’s the most dangerous of the closers.
Notable Workouts:
Bacchanalia (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h TT). Grade: C+
Broke off slightly in front of Virulente (5f, 1:02.1h TT) and was ridden through the lane while winding up head-and-head at the wire, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :37.1. Not particularly noteworthy, probably needs a class drop.
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Sugary (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h). Grade: B-
Blinkers, shadow roll, asked some through the lane while coming the final quarter mile in :24.2. Holding her form, seems about the same, always has been fairly consistent with mid-grade claimers.
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Zabava (December 22, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B-
Asked a bit late, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :37 flat. Was a voided claim last time out in October but appears to be coming back well enough. Clearly prefers grass.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Star Sailor
Forecast: Star Sailor, with back numbers that are much better than par for this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 level, drops for the money run and shouldn’t miss. Once fairly well regarded, the $250,000 yearling purchase switches to Johnny V. and projects to enjoy a soft, second-flight, pace-stalking trip and then have his chance to seal the deal when it matters. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the J. Sadler-trained son of Union Rags appears to be a logical short-priced, no value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Via Egnatia; 1-Never Have I Ever; 8-Castle
Forecast: There are many chances in this starter’s allowance abbreviated turf sprint for older horses, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Via Egnatia (TOC=3-1; ML=7/2) has the route-to-sprint angle we like and probably is better suited going short, anyway. First or second in five of 10 career starts sprinting over the local lawn, the R. Baltas-trained gelding looked exceptionally sharp in a recent training track breeze (see below) and should inherit a good pace-stalking, ground-saving position and have every chance from there. Never Have I Ever (TOC=9/2; ML=5-1) is an intriguing Midwest invader who knows where the wire is (nine wins from 22 starts), The Irish-bred gelding will bust out and go from the rail, and if he can clear early he could prove troublesome late. Castle (TOC=9-1; ML=4-1) was vanned off during the fall season but is being protected by his connections, so we’ll assume he’s just fine. A beaten choice in his last pair but quite competitive at this level on his best day, the son of Slew’s Tiznow has won a third of his 21 career starts including two over the Santa Anita turf course. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you find the need to include a few more, go right ahead.
Notable Workouts:
Via Egnatia (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.4h TT). Grade: B+
Blasted off and earned very fast splits of :22.1 and :33.3, then finished in good rhythm without being asked, up in :58.4 in solo training track drill for R. Baltas. Faded in his last two route outings, might appreciate a turn back in trip. Obviously doing well.
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Fly the Sky (January 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: C+
Ridden aggressively through the lane to be doing his best to the wire, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.2. Fair to moderate, needs turf to show his best form.
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Ian Glass (January 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B-
Solo five furlong training track drill for J. Sadler, asked and ridden through the lane to be doing his best, 1:00.3 on our watches. Been popular at the claim box recently, much prefers grass.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 2-Girl Ranger; 4-Smilin Evie
Forecast: Girl Ranger (TOC=2-1; ML=8/5) was visually pleasing when beating maiden $50,000 foes at Del Mar in her debut in November but wasn’t quite up to snuff when fourth in the much tougher Soviet Problem S. two-turning the following month at Los Alamitos. Back sprinting and dropping into the first-level allowance ranks, the M. McCarthy-trained filly switches to Johnny V. and looks well-spotted to regain her winning form. Smilin Eve (TOC=5/2; ML=9/5) is the one to fear most. A stylish first-out winner vs. maiden special weight state-bred foes during the fall meeting, the daughter of Tom’s Tribute should be prominent throughout and then have her chance when the pressure is turned out. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other; slight preference on top goes to Girl Ranger.
Notable Workouts:
Girl Ranger (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h). Grade: B
Much best inside Fore Flag (5f, 1:02.3h) for M. McCarthy, final half mile in :24 flat and :50.1 while coasting to the wire, three clear in the end. Capable of improving if shortened back to a sprint, has all of her state-bred conditions and seems in good shape.
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Gritty Girl (January 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, solo training track breeze for J. Mullins, final quarter mile in :24.2 while strictly on her own. Form suggests she prefers turf to dirt, should get tested on the raise.
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Smilin Evie (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h). Grade: B-
Easy to the top, then was asked some through the lane and responded in solid fashion, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36.3 for R. Baltas. Won nicely at first asking during the fall meeting and has done well since, pedigree suggests she might eventually be best on turf.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Emerald Lake; 8-Lovers Odyssey
Forecast: Ex-P. Miller assistant R. Alvarado appears to have two major players in this maiden race over a mile on grass for 3-year-old fillies and both should be included in rolling exotic play. The first timer Emerald Lake, lands Johnny V. so we suspect she’s a live and well-meant. Her work tab at San Luis Rey Downs is strong and steady – she hasn’t missed a beat since mid-October – and being from a With Approval mare the daughter of Bluegrass Cat has a right to enjoy the lawn. Her stable mate Lovers Odyssey benefitted from a good ground-saving trip in her debut vs. similar at Del Mar in November, closing with interest to be third before galloping out well. Not sure how strong of a race it was, but this one doesn’t look appreciably tougher, so If this daughter of Cupid can produce any type of forward move, she could win. The others are uninspiring, so let’s try to get by using just these two.
Notable Workouts:
Bonnie Brae (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h TT). Grade: C+
In blinkers, broke off behind Quidproquo (5f, 1:02h TT) and was ridden hard through the lane to close the gap but couldn’t quite catch workmate in training track drill for P. D’Amato. Was hoping for a bit better. Appears to be a one-paced type.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Big Switch; 1-Under the Stars
Forecast: Under the Stars (TOC=2/5; ML=8/5) seems certain to go favored but let’s go with the California-bred unbeaten filly Big Switch (TOC=4-1; ML=9/5) on top. Two-for-two, including a stakes win over this same seven furlong trip on Breeders’ Cup weekend, the daughter of Mr. Big continues to impress in the morning and seems likely to continue to improve as she matures and gains experience. Johnny V. takes over, so at 9/5 on the morning line the J. Sadler-trained sophomore gets the edge. Under the Stars certainly can win (the analytics love her), and while the main push will go to Big Switch we’ll include the B. Baffert-trained filly on our ticket as well. Apparently most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile should be perfectly suited by this extended sprint distance. It’s tough call – both of these fillies earned identical 80 Beyer speed figures in their last outings – so it may be just a matter who can step forward the most.
Notable Workouts:
Under the Stars (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h). Grade: B
May have been a tad second best though never really asked much outside talented Adare Manor (same time), with both actually continuing out to the seven furlong pole with splits of :24.4, :49.2 and 1:01.4 on our watches. Rantanen (5f, 1:03.1h) broke off far in front and went a slow five furlongs while finishing down the lane with the Baffert pair. ‘Stars did well enough although mildly asked when approaching the clubhouse turn while workmate was under a nice hold.
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Big Switch (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: A-
Was always much the best outside Invisible War (5f, 1:00.4h) for J. Sadler, breezing through the lane while opening up two lengths on workmate in the final furlong, plenty left and then galloping out impressively. Unbeaten in two starts and has plenty more to give. California-bred daughter of Mr. Big should continue to develop as the distances increase.
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Awake At Midnyte (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: B
Easy to the top, then was asked a bit through the lane and drew clear from Happy Jack (4f, :50.4h, under restraint and up at the wire), splits of :12.3, :36.4 and :49.1 from the three furlong pole to the seven furlong pole. Maintains her form for D. O’Neill; in two starts she has run very well sprinting and routing and on dirt and turf but doesn’t strike us as a filly with a lot of acceleration.
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Miss Mattie B (December 16, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B-
Leggy, distance-loving filly did quite nicely while chasing home and out-finishing Northeast Kingdom(5f, 1:01.2h), mild coaxing through the lane, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.1 (galloped out strongly to the clubhouse turn, too). Looked good breaking her maiden routing on turf and that might be what she prefers to do.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Kitty Katana; 5-Glenall; 2-Annie’s Song; 12-Spun Beautiful
Forecast: Kitty Kitana is an interesting Irish-invader making her first start in the States for a trainer who excels with European imports. A promising runner-up over the all-weather surface at Dundalk in her only outing last fall, the daughter of Bobby’s Kitten has looked quite promising in the a.m. for P. D’Amato and was even but a tad the best in company with subsequent Blue Norther S. winner Bellabel in a team drill last month. In a race filled with question marks, she could easily be the best of the lot. Glenall was stakes-placed in good company in France early in her juvenile campaign and makes her U.S. debut while returning to the maiden ranks for R. Baltas following a slow-and-easy series of workouts that should have her fit enough. Red hot Johnny V. gets the call. Annie’s Song shows the route-to-sprint angle and may be most comfortable under these conditions. In her U.S. debut around two-turns the M. Glatt-trained filly loomed up strongly but lost her punch late; today she gets Lasix (they all do) and switches to one of the barn’s “go to” riders, A. Cedillo. At 12-1 on the morning line, Spun Beautiful is worth tossing in somewhere as well. It’ll be tough to overcome the extreme outside draw, but the daughter of Hard Spun ran better than the line will show in her debut (a troubled fourth) and goes for a barn that hits at a strong 21% with second-timers.
Notable Workouts:
Haute Lady (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01hg). Grade: B-
Solo gate drill for D. O’Neill, splits of :24.1, :36 flat, :48.2 and 1:01.1 on our watches, not really asked much, okay move for maiden 3-year-old filly. Away since August (was eased in her last start) and clearly is returning better than she left.
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Precocious Times (December 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.2h TT). Grade: B-
Ridden pretty good through the lane to be doing her best in solo training track drill for J. Sadler, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.3. Not a big filly but seems to have some “try,” hit the board in a 14-runner field in her only outing in Ireland last summer.
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Kitty Kitana (December 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.1h TT). Grade: B
Never really asked while stride-for-stride with Bellabel (same time), final quarter in :24.4 looking nice and galloping out the stronger of the two into the first turn. Ran well when second in only start in Ireland (over an all-weather track) and should be quite competitive on this circuit over a distance of ground. Daughter of Bobby’s Kitten looks fit enough for P. D’Amato.
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