Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races. It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Eleuthera; 11-Uncorked; 7-Sterling Crest; 9-I Got a Gal; 10-Jerusalmea
Forecast: This race has been handicapped under the assumption that it will remain on grass. Check our twitter feed (@jsiegelracing) for an updated analysis if it is transferred to the main track). We’re looking for a bit of a price in the Monday opener and Eleuthera fits the bill just fine. She was given an easy run in her debut at Del Mar when finishing strongly but too late to be second in a better-than-par racing over a mile on grass, but then was shortened up, switched to dirt, and raised into a stakes race against the colts (huh?) and predictably got nothing but hot and dirty. The daughter of Square Eddie continues to impress in the morning (see below) and under these much more favorable conditions the B. Cecil-trained juvenile should show her best stuff. Drawn comfortably inside and retaining stable rider M. Gutierrez, this promising juvenile looks more than capable of producing the last run and will offer excellent wagering value at or near her morning line of 6-1.
Uncorked is poorly drawn outside but was considered good enough to be even money in the Golden Gate Debutante S. in. her debut last month and ran well to be second in that all weather sprint up north. Blinkers are removed for a barn that has good stats with the second-time starter angle and Bay Area based jockey E. Roman flies down to ride her in a sign of confidence. The daughter of Uncle Mo clearly has every right to improve and is a major player, her outside post notwithstanding.
Sterling Crest has numbers that have stagnated, but she’s hit the board in two of three career starts and probably can be expected to get a piece of it again. She, along with the intriguing I Got a Gal (two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out and the likely controlling speed) and Euro invader Jerusalema (winning connections, blinkers, and F. Prat) may be worth including somewhere on your ticket in rolling exotic play and the vertical exotics if your budget allows.
Notable Workouts:
Exit Soul (December 19, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3hg). Grade: C
View Workout Video
Second best in gate work inside Lovely Lola (4f, :49hg) while being ridden most of the way, splits of :25.1, :36.4 and :49.3, about three lengths back when eased up after a half for M. McCarthy. Not a win early type for sure, at least sprinting on dirt.
Eleuthera (December 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B
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Broke off behind unnamed (Octogarian, worked under dam’s name) and rolled on by in the final stages without being asked, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.3, quite nice for Cecil. Was given a race in her debut on turf (took hold late to finish second) and then was out of her element when sprinting on dirt in state-bred stakes competition, so we really haven’t seen her at anywhere near her best just yet. Nice filly, has plenty of room to improve, clearly wants to run long on the lawn.
Micro Share (December 18, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14.3h). Grade: B
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Broke off slightly in front of Vegas Palm (5f, 1:01.4h) and was always going the better of the two while mostly in hand, splits of :24 flat, :49.2 and 1:01.4 for the final furlongs while traveling quite well to the seven furlong pole with something left. Ran better than the line will show in her debut and seems certain to improve with distance and experience. (Note: entered in this race for main track only).
Sterling Crest (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03h TT). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In company with Glenali (same time) for M. McCarthy and looked good despite modest final time in training track drill, slow early (:26 flat for opening quarter) but nice in the final stages without being asked (galloped out far in front full of run). Shown a bit of ability in three starts and may have some improvement in here.
I Got a Gal (December 6, Santa Anita, :49.2h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, never asked while strictly on her own in solo half mile breeze, final three furlongs in :36.4. Hasn’t run to her fancy workouts quite yet; might be dangerous on the stretch-out with a loose-on-the-lead trip.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:34 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Starship Sky
Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares drew just five starters and doesn’t offer any real gamble. Starship Sky (TOC=3/5; ML=7/5) projects as a very short price despite her 1-for-20 career record. The good news is that her win came over this track and distance last May, her recent numbers are consistently better than par for this level, and her runner-up effort vs. similar last month at Del Mar should be more than good enough to win. In a race that probably should be left alone, you can make her a no-value rolling exotic single or better yet simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 4-Appreciated; 5-Memo Daddy; 7-Prince Abama; 2-Li Mui Bai
Forecast: This race has been handicapped under the assumption that it will remain on grass. Check our twitter feed (@jsiegelracing) for an updated analysis if it is transferred to the main track). There are a number of legitimate possibilities in this grass bag for entry-level allowance runners, so best advice spread deep in rolling exotic play. In a race that projects to have modest early fractions, Appreciated (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) gets a chance to make amends for failing to land a blow as the favorite in a similar affair at Del Mar last month. Victimized by a poor outside draw and extremely wide trip, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding was never really asked when the cause became hopeless by the time the field hit the far turn, so let’s excuse the non-effort and draw a line through the lane. With a much better post today and with A. Cedillo riding him back, the son of Acclamation should inherit a comfortable pace-stalking/pressing trip and have every chance to produce his best effort. He’s a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and two nice recent training track drills to have him sharp and ready.
Memo Daddy (TOC=3-1; ML=9/2) has been trouble-prone since arriving from Chile but is a strong fit on numbers and is overdue for a win. Fourth in a fast, highly-rated race won by subsequent graded stakes winner Subconscious in early October, the M. McCarthy-trained horse switches to Johnny V. and if allowed to show his natural tactical speed could find himself in an ideal pace-prompting position. He’s a grinding type without a huge late kick, so he’ll need to be within range throughout to have his best chance.
Prince Abama (TOC=7/2; ML=7/2) is a developing 3-year-old with improved recent workouts for trainer P. D’Amato, so we’re expecting a forward move by the lightly-raced gelding. He’s another without a huge turn of foot, so if he can secure a good stalking position, the son of Tamayuz projects to be in the thick of it following his respectable maiden win at Del Mar last month.
Li Mu Bai (TOC=8-1; ML=6-1), was a fair sixth with a bit of traffic trouble vs. similar in his U.S. debut but with the switch to F. Prat and with form in Ireland that was fairly decent the R. Baltas-trained sophomore probably should be included on your ticket as well.
Notable Workouts:
Lincoln Hawk (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Came the final quarter mile in :24 flat but was ridden aggressively throughout while chasing home Count of Amazonia (5f, 1:00.2h TT). Nothing to get excited about.
Liberal (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B-
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Solo main track drill for K. Mulhall, strongly ridden through the lane to be doing his best, final three furlongs in :36.4. Was hoping for better but likely wants grass to show his best stuff.
Prince Abama (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
In blinkers, in company outside the Lava Lane (same time) for P. Eurton in quick training track drill for P. D’Amato, mildly urged to be a tad second best, solid work Irish-bred gelding, both finishing with something left. Turf specialist is lightly-raced with a bit of improvement in him.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Mr. T’s Thirsty; 2-Velvet Ghost
Forecast: The analytics love Mr. T’s Thirsty (TOC=3/5; ML=9/5) . Making his first start since being claimed for $32,000 by trainer D. O’Neill (solid stats with this angle), the son of Stay Thirsty stretches out for the first time and is certainly bred for it, as his sire, grandsire (Bernardini), great grandsire (A. P. Indy) and great-great grandsire (Seattle Slew) all were Grade-1 winner at 10 furlongs while his dam was a New York stakes winner over nine furlongs. Toss in the always-popular blinkers off angle and the switch to F. Prat and we can see why the computers have him as a strong favorite. However, a seven race losing streak gives us pause, so we’ll toss in one more for protection.
Velvet Host (TOC=19-1; ML=5/2) is completely dismissed by the computers (he’s slow on speed figures) but we see some hope. The C. Dollase-trained gelding adds blinkers for the first time, shows a good recent workout over the local main track, and probably will try gate-to-wire tactics. If he can shake loose early without being pressured, the son of Shaman Ghost could take this field a long way.
Notable Workouts:
Mashhad Flats (December 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4hg). Grade: C+
View Workout Video
Ellingwood up, was In three horse gate drill inside Fort Bridger (5f, 1:01.1hg) and Harddiane (4f, :48.4hg) and was ridden most of the way with splits of :24 flat, :35.3, :47.3 and 1:00.4, doing his best to the end. Fair to moderate under the circumstances, graduated for a tag at Los Alamitos in September and seems about the same following a three and one-half month vacation.
Velvet Ghost (November 29, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
No blinkers (scheduled to add them), bullet solo work on training track for C. Dollase with splits of :23.3 and :47.3, very light coaxing only, rather nice for moderate claiming juvenile. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the lead going long, likely to improve with a class drop.
Prince Hussar (December 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Removed blinkers and was permitted to show his speed, going off quickly and then finishing under mild coaxing for H. Palma in bullet half mile workout, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :36.2. Form looks bleak but this was an improvement.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Gregory’s Pride; 2-Vantastic; 9-Mac Daddy Too
Forecast: This race has been handicapped under the assumption that it will remain on grass. Check our twitter feed (@jsiegelracing) for an updated analysis if it is transferred to the main track). It’s carded down the Hillside Course and looks like a messy affair even without a surface switch. Gregory’s Pride (TOC=2-1; ML=4-1) has the route-to-sprint angle that always seems to work over this course and distance and has proven to be most effective as a late-running turf sprinter. He’ll likely settle somewhere in mid-pack and then have his chance from the top of the lane to the wire. A recent sharp training track drill (see below) tells us he’s doing well for P. D’Amato and should fire his best shot.
Vantastic (TOC=7-1; ML=7/2) is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and although beaten as the favorite over this course and distance during the fall season the P. Eurton-trained gelding had a rough trip and can be excused for finishing a non-threatening fourth (beaten four lengths). Freshened and looking sharp in a series of recent training track drills, the son of Vronsky picks up Johnny V. and with good racing luck should be rolling late.
Mucho Del Oro (TOC=5-1; ML=6-1) has two-turned in his last four start but he’s just as comfortable if not more so running short and in fact is a perfect two-two time sprinting lifetime. Protected in a sign of confidence after being claimed for $40,000 by V. Cerin (a massive 25% with this angle), the sophomore gelding equaled his career top Beyer number when winning gate to win over a mile at Del Mar last month, has trained well since, and retains “win rider” V. Espinoza. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s a major player.
Mac Daddy Too (TOC=7-1; ML=5-1) earned a career top speed figure when narrowly missing in an abbreviated turf sprint at Del Mar last month in his second start off a layoff, and with another forward move today, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding will be right there again. The son of Maclean’s Music projects to enjoy a good pace-pressing trip outside and remain a strong factor every step of the way.
Notable Workouts:
Spirit Maker (December 17, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: C+
View Workout Video
Appeared to slow up a bit in the closing stages after going off quickly but wasn’t asked much, okay work, nothing great. Recently gelding, may appreciate a class drop.
Vantastic (December 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade: B
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A bit late changing leads but did quite nicely in solo training track drill for P. Eurton, final quarter in a sharp :23.3 without being asked much at all. Always extremely willing in the morning. Been primarily a grass runner but can handle dirt if asked. Freshened since late October and looks good.
Gregory’s Pride (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
In blinkers, nice training track drill inside Red Storm Risen (5f, :59.3h TT), breaking off a few lengths in front and then holding that one off late without really being asked much, splits of :24.3, :36.4 and 1:00.2 on our watches while maintaining his edge. Been stuck on thirds lately but has some room to improve.
Newpark (December 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.3h). Grade: B-
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Breezing in solo main track drill for J. Mullins, final half mile in :24 flat and :49.2, maintenance move for lightly-raced Irish-bred gelding. Freshened since late October and seems in good shape, most effective when it can make the lead.
Gold Phoenix (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4hg). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, off a bit slowly, then wasn’t asked much at any stage while a tad second best with Midnight’s Girl (same time) with splits of :24.4, :364, :49.1 and 1:01.4 (galloped to the wire in 1:16.2). Won his only start over the all-weather at Dundalk last February while earning a good Timeform rating; is getting fit for P. D’Amato, might be suited for a Hillside dash.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:37 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Holden the Lute; 2-Bud Knight
Forecast: Holden the Lute (TOC=3/5; ML=5/2) seems certain to get plenty of play in this lackluster restricted (nw-2) $32,000 miler for $32,000 claimers, though he’s 1-for-16 and clearly not one to trust (of course, they’re all 1-for-something here). From his advantageous inside draw, the S. Knapp-trained gelding projects to be on or near the lead throughout, and a repeat of his last race against tougher starter $50,000 foes at Del Mar last month (third after establishing the pace) earned a number that should be good enough to beat this field.
If it’s not him, one could make a (weak) case for Bud Knight (TOC=4-1: ML=2-1) because F. Prat stays aboard, and the L. Powell-trained gelding has a few back speed figures that are competitive. However, the son of Tizbud gelding has run 20 times, 19 of which have come on turf, and he was last of nine (beaten 19 lengths) in his only try on dirt. Tread lightly here.
Notable Workouts:
Holden the Lute (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Easy to the top, then was asked to pick it up in the final furlong and responded okay to hand urging, final half mile on our watches in :24.2 and :49.2 for S. Knapp. Seems about the same.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Aligato; 3-Fly to Mars
Forecast: This race has been handicapped under the assumption that it will remain on grass. Check our twitter feed (@jsiegelracing) for an updated analysis if it is transferred to the main track). This California-bred optional claimer could produce quicker-than-par early fractions which certainly will aid the closing types. But our pace projection is volatile, and some of those that have been displaying good early speed and then weakening (Betito, Wilder Than Most, Dr. Troutman, etc.) might employ different tactics today in which case anything could happen. Based on pedigree, Aligato (TOC=3-1; ML=4-1) should love this stretch out in trip and if performs even slightly better routing than sprinting the M. Glatt-trained gelding may be the one to beat, especially from his good inside draw. He’s a tad light in the speed figure to department but with only three starts on his resume this soon-to-be five-year-old should have plenty of improvement in him. After he finished a troubled third as the favorite in a similar affair over five furlongs at Del Mar last month, a solid, steady series of recent workouts is encouraging, so let’s put the son of Kitten’s Joy on top and hope he continues to step forward with added distance and experience.
Fly to Mars (TOC=8/5, ML-7/2) once would handle this type of assignment with ease, but he’ll soon be eight year old and appears to have lost a few steps in recent months. A five-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the veteran son of Ministers Wild Cat doesn’t have the late turn of foot to make up a lot of ground and needs to be within striking range throughout to have his best chance. Whether or not he can keep up early with the projected pace flow is questionable, so while we’ll him on our rolling exotic ticket – and the analytics like him on top – we’re not quite as confident.
Notable Workouts:
Aligato (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Some coaxing late but did well enough in solo training track drill for M. Glatt, splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:00.2, solid move while maintaining his form. Shouldn’t have any issues with two-turns, pedigree suggests he should enjoy actually more ground.
Betito (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Never really asked much in steady, even five furlong drill for former P. Miller assistant R. Alvarado, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :37.2. Maintenance move, does his best running on the front end going long.
Tallemark (December 18, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:15.1h). Grade: C+
View Workout Video
Was let run most of the way and ridden through the lane while even but second best inside Ground Attack (same time) for K. Headley, final half mile in :24 flat and :50.1. Not very inspiring, though he probably needs turf to show his best. Will get severely tested on the raise.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 4-Charge Cash; 2-Romano; 1-Bronn
Forecast: Charge Cash (TOC=1-1; ML=4-1) and Romano (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) appear to be the two logical players in this seven furlong restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claimer for older horses. The former may be a bit more reliable but the latter (with two wins and 14 seconds and thirds) is a bit quicker on speed figures. We’ll prefer ‘Cash on top. The sophomore gelding has improved since being haltered by D. O’Neill for this price in September and has the proper style for this extended sprint trip. The early pace looks comfortable, so he should have every chance while on or near the lead throughout.
Romano appears to lack a winning punch but this drastic turn back in trip combined with a significant drop in class could make a world of difference. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding will need some help up front, and according to our pace projections he might not get it, but on pure numbers he’s a fit and a bullet half mile drill (:47 flat) at Los Alamitos earlier this month might help sharpen him up.
Bronn (TOC=20-1; ML=7/2) is a complete toss-out according to the analytics but he has enough gate speed to be an early factor from the rail, and against this group with a modest pace flow the B. Baffert-trained gelding may stick around longer than the computer program projects. You may want to toss him in as a saver or a backup.
Notable Workouts:
Bronn (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Broke off a length inside Rockefeller (5f., :59.4h) and finished about a length back at the wire but wasn’t asked much at all while workmate was ridden pretty good from the furlong pole to the wire, splits of :24 flat, :35.4 and 1:00.1 for the B. Baffert-trained gelding. Looks okay, recent form has been dull, but with a significant class drop he should be competitive.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 12-Duvet Day; 9-Annie’s Song
Forecast: This race has been handicapped under the assumption that it will remain on grass. Check our twitter feed (@jsiegelracing) for an updated analysis if it transferred to the main track). We’ll focus on two European imports exiting the same maiden 2-year-old filly grass mile (Nov. 2 at Del Mar) that figure to step forward significantly in their second North American outing. Duvet Day, listed at 9/2 on the morning line, was knocked back at the start in a chain reaction that cost her a several lengths but then rallied with courage to wind up a willing fourth (and galloped out well) in a noteworthy U.S. debut. Runner-up in both of outings in Ireland in early summer, the daughter of Starspangledbanner has a chance to develop into a nice type during the winter for M. McCarthy and should be tough to beat if Johnny V. can negotiate a good trip from her outside post position.
After producing three in-the-frame finishes in four starts when facing good English company prior to importation, Annie’s Song may have a little less room to improve, and though winding up third, almost a length in front of Duvet Day, she enjoyed a much cleaner trip F. Prat might have moved her a bit too soon (couldn’t have beaten the winner, anyway), stays aboard, and may employ a bit more patient tactics today.
Notable Workouts:
Hemmerle (December 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Some light late coaxing in useful five furlong main track drill for R. Mandella, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.4. Continues to train well but has been a disappointment in the afternoon (been lacking a late kick). Curious to see if she might be more effective shortening up?
Annie’s Song (December 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Mostly on her own in solo half mile training track drill for M. Glatt, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.2, pretty nice for Irish-bred maiden filly. Showed some run overseas and ran a bit better than the line will show in local debut at Del Mar. Have to think she can step forward.
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