Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Feb. 23, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Friday, February 23, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Super Patriot; 7-Seattle Drop

Forecast: This maiden-claiming turf miler for sophomore fillies came up fairly weak.  Seattle Drop has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern combined with the all-important class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming, and with rising speed figures and Baze staying aboard the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid has several factors in her chart that should lead to a significant forward move.  Super Patriot can be included in you rolling exotics as well; she just finished second over this course and distance vs. state-bred rivals and earned a speed figure that could be good enough to win.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Lake Time; 4-Dalsaros

Forecast: The second race, a second-level allowance main track miler for fillies and mares, drew just five runners, so there’s not much we can do with it.  Dalsaros moves up a notch following a solid pace-forcing win vs. entry-level foes and should step forward again in what will be just her fifth career start.  She adds blinkers today – an unusual move for a last-out winner – and projects to be on or near the lead throughout.  Lake Time is by far the fastest in the field based strictly on speed figures but she’s unproven around two-turns.  We’ll include her in our rolling exotic play but prefer Dalsaros on top.


​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Mor Candy; 7-Bad Bad Leroy

Forecast:  Mor Candy shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time while also making his first start since being gelded, so the D’Amato-trained son of Twirling Candy has plenty in his favor.  He also gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman.  Bad Bad Leroy is drawn nicely outside for his second career start and seems likely to produce a forward move for a barn that boasts superior stats with second-out maidens.  We’ll use both in rolling exotic play and then press a bit keying Mor Candy on top.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use:  4-Party At Midnight; 5-Victoria Falls; 6-Millie Joe

Forecast:  Shining Armada lands the good rail while stretching out for the first time and could find herself on the lead in this soft maiden claiming miler older fillies and mares.  She’s hit the board in all three of her career starts, so at least we know she tries.  Party At Midnight didn’t show a whole lot in her debut but did get a bit of play in that race and Bejarano rides her back, so perhaps she has a bit more going for her than meets the eyed.  We’ll toss her in.  Millie Joel is a fit on figures and has a right to get a piece of it, at least.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but without any degree of trust.


​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 9-B Squared

Forecast: B Squared has been tried all over the map – sprinting, routing, dirt, turf – but today shows up under conditions that produced his career top speed figure.  Drawn perfectly outside in this downhill turf sprint, the son of Square Eddie looks primed to repeat the quality of his California Flag Stakes win last fall under a pace scenario that should allow him to draft into an ideal pace-prompting position.  At 3-1 on the morning line, he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Whacked; 7-Lucky Lula; 8-Mixed Emotions

Forecast: Maiden $50,000 claiming sophomore fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in the wide open sixth race.  Use as many as you can afford to.  Trainer Eric Kruljac has two main players including Mixed Emotions, a second-timer exiting a straight maiden event and likely to improve a bunch with that effort behind her.  Stable mate Lucky Lula, second in a recent maiden $40,000 event, won’t have to improve much at all based on speed figures to win and switches to Nakatani.  Whacked, a fair fifth after a slow start vs. similar in her debut last month, received no play that day (53-1) but is a contender by default.  Tread lightly here.


​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Rprettyboyfloyd; 7-Winning Causeway

Forecast: Rprettyboyfloyd drops to his lowest level ever in this bottom-of-the-barrel $6,250 claiming main track mile affair and will beat this field if he has one good one left.  He’s never been one to trust but at this level he might get brave.  Winning Causeway is re-equipped with blinkers and has a race two runs back (second at this level) that charts reasonably well here.  We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two but if you feel the need to go deeper, go right ahead.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Principal Bob; 4-Winning Element; 9-Acker

Forecast:  The nightcap is a starter’s allowance nine furlong turf event offering a few possibilities.  Winning Element seems as good as any; the O’Neill-trained gelding is protected following a $40,000 claim and is making his first start since being gelded.  Prat stays board and should have this son of City Zip in a good second-flight, stalking position.  Principal Bob just broke his maiden over this course at a mile and shouldn’t be impacted by today’s extra furlong.  The number he earned his recent win – a career top – puts him in the fray despite the tougher task.  Acker returns to his preferred surface and stretches out to his preferred trip.  The Miller-trained son of Include switches to Nakatani and will likely be heard from in the final furlong.



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Feb. 23, 2018

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