Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, June 22, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, June 22, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Flip the Coin Jan; 7-Wild Lando

Forecast:  Wild Lando won a maiden special weight main track sprint in late April but is eligible to this starter’s allowance sprint because he debuted in a $50,000 claimer more than a year ago.  With a healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs leading up to this race, the D’Amato-trained colt lands the good outside draw and can win again if he can duplicate his dirt form over this tricky hillside course.  Flip the Coin Jan might be using this race as a prep – he hasn’t been out since December – but the son of Trappe Shot has speed figures from last year that make him a fit with these, though he’s unproven both sprinting and on grass.  We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as a saver.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Allaboutaction; 4-Red Carpet Cat

Forecast:  Red Carpet Cat has, as expected, improved dramatically after being claimed by high-percentage trainer Wong, and after winning a pair of allowance races at Golden Gate Fields returns to the Santa Anita dirt main track boasting speed figures that are good enough to beat this field.  The one to fear most is Allaboutaction, claimed in his last pair for $40,000 and returning for that price for new trainer Treece.  He’s fast on figures, but it’s no slam dunk that he’ll run as well for this stable as he did for either of his prior two trainers (Baltas and Hollendorfer).  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Red Carpet Cat.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-General Mach Four; 8-Croissant

Forecast:  General Mach Four just won a restricted (Nw-3) $25,000 Hillside turf sprint with a solid speed figure and is dropping to $16,000 to take advantage of the non-winners of three condition while seeking a repeat score over a course he clearly can handle.  The O’Neill-trained gelding is strictly the one to beat and we suspect will go lower than his 5/2 morning line.  Croissant has won over this course in the past, exits a much tougher race, and lands the good outside post.  He should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position and have every chance.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  3-King of Speed; 4-Hartel; 5-Parsimony

Forecast: Hartel has been producing excellent clockings at San Luis Rey Downs while preparing for his racing debut and the Miller-trained colt – a $210,000 yearling purchase by City Zip – catches what appears to be a moderate band of maiden special weight juveniles in this five furlong dash.  With Smith taking the call, he looks very live first time out.  Parsimony and King of Speed both have a race under their belt and should move forward.  The former adds blinkers while retaining Stevens after finishing a fair fourth last month while the latter returns in 13 days for O’Neill after a strong runner-up effort when second while earning a good figure.  A win by any of the three wouldn’t be surprising.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Bountiful Desert; 7-Popular Kid

Forecast:  Bountiful Desert has primarily been a turf horse throughout his career but has done well on dirt in the few chances he’s had, and we’re expecting the sharp Bay Area invader to continue his strong recent form in this state-bred optional claimer.  The Morey-trained son of Desert Code gets a break in the weights with the switch to Espinoza and should fold into a comfortable pace-stalking, ground-saving position.   Popular Kid just won at this level but was claimed by a barn (Carava) that is zero-for-30 at this meeting and just 5-for-103 this year.  Additionally, the 4-year-old gelding has never been keen on winning and is drawn farthest out of seven with a short run to the first turn.  We’ll have a ticket or two using him as a saver, but nothing more.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Tequila Sunrise 7-Jazaalah

Forecast:  Tequila Sunrise returns from Kentucky and gets back on grass in this maiden special weight miler for fillies and mares.  She ran well when second as a two-year-old on turf last year at Del Mar so it’s probable that she’ll produce a forward move against a moderate band from a favorable inside draw.  Jazaalah is steadily improving as she acclimates for Cassidy, and while somewhat one-paced should draft into a good stalking position and have dead aim when it matters.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with Tequila Sunrise on top.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Val Dori; 5-Dreamarcher

Forecast:  Val Dori clearly is the class of the field, but is she the same mare as she was last year?  Her speed figures say no, but after facing tough graded stakes foes in her first two 2018 outings the veteran Argentine-bred mare has a chance to regain her confidence against a field she should out class.  Of course, at 6/5 on the morning line she’ll offer no wagering value.  Dreamarcher deserves some consideration in rolling exotic play; she’s a closer type in a race with plenty of speed, and could be the beneficiary of a highly favorable race flow.  In a race we’ll otherwise pass, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Painting Corners; 3-A Little Bit Me; 5-Zaffinah

Forecast: This Hillside turf sprint for fillies and mares has several possibilities; we’ll go three deep in rolling exotics but you should use as many as you can afford to.  Painting Corners, in her second start off a layoff, might be the best of the speed but won’t get any breathers.  She’s hit the board in all four of her starts over the local lawn (with two wins) and sports a bullet work at San Luis Rey Downs since raced.  We’ll also toss in A Little Bit Me and Zaffinah.  Both are capable closers, and in a field with plenty of zip should be heard from in the final furlong.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, June 22, 2018

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