Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, March 16, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, March 16, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Southern Treasure; 5-Herundbridledpower

Forecast: Southern Treasure moves up a notch following a nice win for $6,250 and should fire her usual good shot right back.  A winner of 10 of 23 career starts, the veteran mare has a good stalking style, so her rail post shouldn’t be an issue.  Herunbridledpower probably has the most zip in the field and will take them as far as she can.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Line Drive; 3-Silverspun Pickup; 4-Krissys Manicure

Forecast: We’ll use three of the six starters in our rolling exotics in this extended claiming sprint for sophomore fillies but otherwise pass the race.  Line Drive exits a competitive starter’s allowance and should find this $40,000 field a bit easier.  The O’Neill-trained daughter of Line of David switches to Roman and should be on or near the lead throughout.  Silverspun Pickup crushed a $25,000 field last month and with continued improvement will fit well with this bunch despite the class hike.  Krissys Manicure is re-equipped with blinkers, retains Bejarano, and is competitive on speed figures, though at 9/5 on the morning line she offers little in the way of value.  Line Drive gets the edge on top and we’ll have a couple of extra tickets keying her in the exotics.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-She Beat the Fire; 6-Ladybug

Forecast:  Ladybug has been a bit of a disappointment but she shows up in an expensive claimer for the first time and should take full advantage of the opportunity.  A repeat of her race before last over this course and distance should be sufficient.  She Beat the Field is a first-timer that is bred for grass and has trained okay so let’s toss her in on  a few tickets as well.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-I’ll Wrap It Up; 3-Bedeviled; 4-Stormin Monarcho

Forecast: This is another contentious affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play.  Bedeviled is a genuine and versatile and is realistically spotted after a pair of wins in restricted claiming company, one on turf and the other over this main track.  He picks up Prat today and should be set for another major effort.  Stormin Monarcho drops sharply in class and could easily snap to life against this group.  The Mullins-trained gelding does his best on the front end and we expect gate-to-wire tactics will be employed by Pedroza.  I’ll Wrap It Up likes to finish second and third (18 times) more than he likes to win (four times) but the Miyadi-trained son of Tapit projects to be prominent throughout and is likely to at least hit the board again.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Life’s Blessings; 6-Resky Business

Forecast: Resky Business is a bit better than her last pair shows and the Morey-trained filly can win with a repeat of her strong score at Los Alamitos three runs back.  She’s most dangerous when aggressively ridden from the start, so we’re expecting Baze to send her in an attempt to make the running.  Life’s Blessings has been disappointing of late but she’s stretching out today, and if she’s ever going to successfully route, it’ll be in her first attempt.  She’s okay in the speed figure department but nothing more.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Resky Business on top.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use4-Lewis Vale; 6-El Super

Forecast:  Lewis Vale beat a $10,000 claiming field in early February, returns  six weeks later at the bottom level, and will handle this field if he has one good one left.  Clearly  he has issues but the Flower Alley gelding has finished first or second in 15 of 31 career starts, so we’re expecting him to find a way.  El Super, second to ‘Vale when they met two races back, looks like the one to fear most in a  lackluster affair.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Silken Spy; 2-Toinette

Forecast: The featured seventh race – for 3-year-old allowance fillies over a mile on grass – should boil down to Silken Spy and Toinette.  The former drew the rail and will try to be the controlling speed again, though today she’s facing more heat and certainly will have to go faster during the early stages.  Toinette adds Lasix after breaking her maiden down the hill in January; she’s trained very well since and looks to have plenty of improvement in her.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Toinette.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Over Promised; 7-Awesome E K

Forecast: The finale is a woefully weak bottom-rung maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for older horses.  Awesome E K is the top pick by default; the lightly-raced gelding has numbers that can win and catches a pace scenario that should compliment his pace-pressing style.  Over Promised has been away for more than a year but could improve, as he’s a first-time gelding removing blinkers for a clever outfit.  We’ll try to get by using just these two with slight preference on top to Awesome E K.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, March 16, 2018

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