Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, March 23, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, March 23, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Popular Kid; 3-Kona Dreams

Forecast: The races are off the turf today and as this is written we’ll assume the main track will be in some type of wet condition.  Kona Dreams has won on this main track in the past and has a pedigree that suggests he’ll like an off track, so we’ll put him on top.  We anticipate the Spawr-trained gelding will employ gate-to-wire tactics.  Popular Kid is a first-off-the-claim play with a prior win over a wet track, and this restricted (nw-3) $32,000 claimer is well within his range based on speed figures.  He also gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Ceballos.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-All Net; 4-Eternal Endeavor

Forecast: Eternal Endeavor won an off-the-turf maiden claiming event by more than eight lengths in January in her most recent outing and will be tough right back if she can duplicate that effort today.  She’s lightly-raced, has room for another forward move or two, and shouldn’t be bothered by a wet surface.  All Net also graduated by daylight from maiden claimers in her last start but earned a number well below what ‘Endeavor was able to achieve.  The daughter of Graydar should be on the lead and will take them as far as she can.  Both should be included in rolling exotics play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Eternal Endeavor on top.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Wild Lando; 3-Faversham

Forecast:  Wild Lando stretches out for the first time and has the pedigree to enjoy the extra distance.  In the money in all five of his career starts, the son of Empire Maker projects to be on or near the lead throughout.  Faversham was overmatched in the Cal Cup Derby in what was just his second career start but returns to reality today and should improve a bunch.  This full brother to California Chrome has ability (as displayed in his promising debut) and seems likely to get back on the beam today.  Let’s include both in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Wild Lando.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-Tell Your Mama; 5-Lady Mamba

Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in the fourth race, a maiden special weight main track miler for fillies and mares.  Lady Mamba, second in her last three starts (all on turf), tries her luck on the main track today and if she can transfer her grass form to dirt she looks likely to earn her diploma.  She can be effective on the front end or from a stalking position so Prat can play it by ear.  Tell Your Mama, in the frame in three of her last four starts, missed by a head in her most recent start over this track and distance and really won’t have to improve much to win.  Lady Mama gets the edge on top and we’ll have a few extra tickets keying her.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Taniko; 4-Starting Bloc; 12-Impression

Forecast: This race takes on a different look after being switched to the main track.  Impression is a first-off-the-claim play for the high percentage Morey barn, adds blinkers, and gets a weight break with the switch to Caballos.  In the money in his last six starts with solid speed figures, the son of Smart Strike is long overdue for a win.  Starting Bloc shows up in a claimer after two fair tries in straight maiden company on grass last fall.  He’s a four-year-old, so this seems like a logical class drop for his comeback and he’s bred to handle any kind of wet surface.  Taniko may be better on grass, but he’s a fit on numbers and could be a late threat.  Let’s try to get by using just these three.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Uno Trouble Maker; 4-Chiefs Lil Pearl

Forecast: Chiefs Lil Pearl drops a notch but remains above her claim level in this $20,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies.  She was a distant second when favorite vs. slightly tougher foes last month but a repeat of her race before last should be good enough to get her back in the winner’s circle.  Uno Trouble Maker was far back in a $50,000 claiming miler over a wet fast track in her last start but drops sharply in class and returns to sprinting, so she could easily repeat her nice maiden score two runs back.  She also adds blinkers for the first time.  We’ll prefer Chiefs Lil Pearl on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Law Abidin Citizen; 6-Irish Freedom

Forecast: Law Abidin Citizen stretches out for the first time and is likely to enjoy the added distance.  He should be capable of making the pace, and if not pressured early very likely will take this field a long way.  Prat stays aboard for Glatt.  Irish Freedom has been facing infinitely tougher foes lately and will greatly appreciate today’s class relief.  There’s no reason the Baffert-trained colt won’t handle any kind of off track.  Let’s go with Law Abidin Citizen on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 4-1 but include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Ministertomyheart; 8-Dare to Enter; 9-Studly Perfection

Forecast: We’ll spread the finale, a $20,000 maiden claiming main track miler that offers several possibilities.  Studly Perfection was out of his element in a maiden $75,000 grass affair last time out but he returns to a much more realistic level today and will be tough if he duplicates his nice runner-up try two races back.  The number he earned that day is much better than par for this level.  Ministertomyheart adds blinkers and stretches out for the first time; the Miyadi-trained gelding has steadily rising figs and with another forward move today could be a strong threat.  Dare to Enter seems to be improving but the concern is he’s pretty slow on speed figures.  The Point of Entry gelding should be doing his best work late, so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, March 23, 2018

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