The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Monday, February 19, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Lady Mamba; 7-Morning Dance
Forecast: Lady Mamba and Morning Dance exit the same affair; they finished two-three behind Achira in a strong race for the level last month and both have a right to produce forward moves today. ‘Mamba was making her first start since July and may have been a tad short, while ‘Dance has the blinkers off angle that we always like and seems the most dangerous of the closers.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Zap Again; 2-Stone Hands
Forecast: Stone Hands surfaces in a claimer for the first time while showing just two workouts since finishing third Dec. 26 in a decent first-level allowance race. This isn’t a healthy pattern by any means so at 4/5 on the morning line the O’Neill-trained colt may be vulnerable and won’t offer any wagering value, anyway. You can use him if you like, but we’ll prefer Zap Again on top. The son of Ghostzapper has rising speed figures for a low profile outfit and in a five runner field should be able to negotiate a good trip from the rail.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Tiki Bar Logic
Forecast: Tiki Bar Logic is 6/5 on the morning line and will outrun this modest group with anything close to her best race. She’s a one-dimensional front runner and looks quick enough to establish the pace and keep on going, just as she did when winning by 23 lengths vs. maiden claimers over this track last fall. She’s a no-value rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Revenue Virginius; 4-Little Bit Lovely; 8-Miss Boom Boom
Forecast: Mid-grade claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile on grass in the first leg of the Pick-6. It’s a fairly competitive affair requiring a bit of a spread. Miss Boom Boom is in good form for O’Neill and can be effective at any distance. She’s drawn a bit farther out than we’d prefer but she should have enough speed to fold into a good stalking spot. Little Bit Lovely wants the front end and is tough to get by when she gets it. Five of her eight lifetime wins have been accomplished over this turf course. Revenue Virginius had a sprint prep off a long layoff last month and finished steadily to be third in a solid effort. She stretches out to a distance that is within her range and Bejarano stays aboard, so at 5-1 on the morning line she’s worth including as well.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Moon Juice; 3-Ministertomyheart
Forecast: Moon Juice lost his best chance when breaking slowly in a similar spot as the favorite last month so we’ll give him a chance to make amends in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. Ministertomyheart, second in that same race in his first start since last June, has plenty of room to improve for a barn that does well with second-off-layoff runners. He’ll be running on late. Let’s try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Yes I’m Ready; 6-Willy Tell Him
Forecast: Willy Tell Him has worked well enough to win at first asking in this state-bred maiden claiming sprint for a barn whose debut runners often perform better than expected. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Ministers Wild Cat should have every chance from a pace-prompting position. Yes I’m Ready surfaces for a tag for the first time and at this level could be hard to run down. So far he’s shown plenty of zip without too much stick but against this group he could get very brave. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Willy Tell Him.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-One Fast Broad
Forecast: One Fast Broad ran a winning race when a fast-finishing second in the Blue Norther Stakes vs. open company on New Year’s Eve, has trained steadily since, and today gets a crack under similar one mile turf conditions vs. state-bred foes. The daughter of Decarchy should make the most of the opportunity, but at 3/5 on the morning line there’s not a whole lot we can do with her, other than to use her as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Violent Ridge; 4-Heck Yeah; 5-Faversham
Forecast: Heck Yeah just won sprinting on turf and today tries to extend his perfect record to three when stretching out to a mile and one-sixteenth and returning to the main track. He’s a genuine colt with plenty of quality and is bred to handle the extra distance. Violent Ridge is a progressive gelding also stretching out for the first time with a pedigree to cope with the two-turn trip. From the rail he’s likely to establish the pace and without undue pressure could take this field a very long way. Faversham, a fast-finishing second to Violent Ridge in his debut, is a full-brother to California Chrome so expectations are sky high. This is a tough task for a second-time starting maiden, but at 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth at least some consideration.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Radio Silence; 6-Mesut; 9-Skelton Pass
Forecast: Mesut continues to improve with experience and looks capable of producing a winning late bid over a course he’s shown he can handle. Radio Silence, freshened since November, returns as a first-time gelding for the always-potent Prat/Baltas team. The son of War Front could easily produce a significant forward move. Skelton Pass catches a favorable pace scenario and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip. Never off the board in five career starts down the hill, the Temple City gelding switches to Bejarano and should fire his best shot. Let’s give Mesut a very slight edge on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.