Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, April 14, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Saturday, April 14, 2018


RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Sellwood; 5-Friendly Outthedor; 8-Majestic Eagle

Forecast:  Majestic Eagle just finished second to Fibonacci in a similar maiden turf event and there’s nobody in here even remotely as good as that colt.  Runner-up in his last pair and with solid numbers for the level, the son of Medaglia d’Oro should be able to produce the last run.  Sellwood moves up from expensive claiming company but is progressing nicely and should at least hit the board.  Friendly Outthedor switches to Smith and is likely to be heard from in the final furlong.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Majestic Eagle on top.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Just Be Held; 3-Reckless Charm; 6-Anita G.

Forecast: A little will go a long way in this restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares.  Anita G. gets a break in the weights and looks best of the speed types.  Reckless Charm exits the same race as Anita G. and should appreciate today’s extra furlong.  She’s 1-for 27 lifetime and obviously not one to trust, but against this group she’s a fit.  Just Be Held projects to be part of the pace inside and could stick around for at least a piece of it.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:02 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Venice; 6-Mischievous Lass

Forecast:  Mischievous Lass has the route-to-sprint angle we like and may be best suited as a late-running sprinter.  The Glatt-trained daughter of Into Mischief can tag the suspect speed in this maiden claimer for sophomore fillies.  Venice ran well two races back when runner-up vs. similar and a repeat of that effort today puts her right there. 


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:38 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-Tengs Rhythm; 3-Naughty Sophie

Forecast: Tengs Rhythm is gradually improving and with another forward move today can earn his diploma in what is a split of the third race.  Naughty Sophie is a dangerous first-timer from a barn that has good stats with debut runners.  The daughter of Horse Greeley hasn’t done anything out of the ordinary in the morning but many Miller-trained newcomers run better than the work.  We’ll try to get by using just these with preference on top to Tengs Rhythm


​​RACE 5: Post 2:13 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Red Livy; 2-Beautiful Becca

Forecast:  Red Livy won impressively over this course and distance in early January but hasn’t been out since.  If she fires a similar shot today she can win again despite being raised from $25,000 all the way up to $50,000.  Beautiful Becca is a two-time winner over the local lawn but will be shortening up today from a series of two-turn tries.  She’ll appreciate the class drop and patient handling; with good racing luck the Hollendorfer-trained filly will be dangerous in the final furlong.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:48 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-For the Hustle; 6-Perfect Tale

Forecast:  Perfect Tale flashed ability in his debut when a decent third in a similar maiden state-bred claimer and with any kind of forward move the son of Pleasantly Perfect should be along in time.  For the Hustle is a first-timer from the Headley barn with an okay work tab.  The barn is clever with debut runners, so at 10-1 on the morning line the son of Cyclotron is worth tossing in as well.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:23 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 1-Edwards Going Left

Forecast:  Edwards Going Left returns to state-bred company and with a repeat of his race before last the Sadler-trained gelding will return to the winner’s circle.  However, at 6/5 on the morning line there’s not much value to be found.  He’s a logical, short-priced rolling exotic single.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:54 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Fast as Cass; 5-Tule Fog; 6-Kings River King

Forecast: Kings River King had a solid prep down the hill and seems ready to produce a forward move while stretching out to his preferred trip.  There should be plenty of pace to compliment his late-running style.  Tule Fog may be the controlling speed, and if not pressured early he’ll take this field a long way.  Fast as Cass offers excellent value at 15-1 on the morning line.  His only prior grass outing was strong when second down the hill, and the son of Unusual Heat seems quite a bit better than his modest speed figures give him credit for.  Toss him in somewhere.


RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Well Measured; 6-Classico; 8-Mesa Sky

Forecast: Mesa Sky is wheeled back quickly (six days) by Jacobson following a sharp win for $8,000.  It’s an unusual maneuver, but in his present form the Sky Mesa gelding might be able to pull it off.  Well Measured usually hits the board and with his kind of speed the Carava-trained gelding projects to be prominent throughout.  Classico, first off the claim for Glatt, fits well with these off his nice score two races back.  He’ll enjoy the return to fast going.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Mesa Sky on top.


RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Well Developed; 5-River Echo; 6-Air Vice Marshal

Forecast: River Echo returns to turf for the first time since November of 2016 and will likely improve considerably with the switch in surface.  The Miller-trained gelding is way too big of a number at 15-1 on the morning line and projects to enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking trip.  Well Developed is lightly-raced and tough as nails.  Perfect in two starts over the local lawn, the Gallagher-trained gelding moves up a level but is a strong fit on speed figures.  Air Vice Marshal is another pace-type but can stalk and pounce if the race flow dictates.  He’s fast on figures and sports a strong, steady work tab.


​​​​​RACE 11: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Seattle Encounter; 8-Jerry’s Thunder; 9-Righteous Wave

Forecast:  The finale is another challenging maiden claimer.  Jerry’s Thunder is gradually improving and may be ready to graduate.  He looks like the best of the speed, though his “stick” may still be a bit suspect.  Righteous Wave was far back in his only outing but seems sure to improve.  Drawn comfortably outside, the Headley-trained gelding switches to Nakatani and should be forwardly placed throughout.  Seattle Encounter is a first-timer with a useful series of drills.  If he can run just a little bit he’ll be a factor.




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, April 14, 2018

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