Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, June 16, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Saturday, June 16, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Sir Eddie

Forecast: Sir Eddie has been knocking on the door with two solid runner-up efforts over this course and distance and looks ready to earn his diploma in this state-bred maiden special weight sprint.  There’s some value here at 5/2 on the morning line, so let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:59 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Irish Terrier; 4-Keyson; 5-Bea’s Boy

Forecast: Bea’s Boy tipped his hand when finishing willingly to be second in his debut and Miyadi has a good record with second-time starters, so we’re expecting this son of Affirmative to run at least as well and perhaps better in this maiden claiming dash for juveniles.  The race he exits wasn’t much, but this race isn’t, either.  Keyson invades from Phoenix where he finished fifth as a maiden in a stakes races; one would assume this is an easier spot and based on speed figures he’s a solid fit.  Irish Terrier had a rough start in his debut and then closed a gap without threatening.  He’s been gelded since that race, so we’ll include the “other” Miyadi in our rolling exotics as well.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-River Boyne

Forecast: River Boyne was disappointing when finishing a non-threatening fifth as the favorite in the American Turf Stakes on Derby Day in Louisville but should return to winning form today in this five-runner stakes for 3-year-olds.  A perfect three-for-three over the Santa Anita lawn, the Mullins-trained colt should settle into a stalking position just off slow fractions and then out-kick his rivals at what should be a very short price.  Let’s make him a no-value, rolling exotic single.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Anonymity

Forecast: Here’s another short price single.  Anonymity won her debut like a future star last summer at Del Mar but then finished second at odds-on and was stopped on.  She returns with a very impressive series of workouts, and if she runs back to her highly rated maiden score she’ll easily handle this first-level allowance field.  We’ll use her as a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:29 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Operandi; 5-Helen’s Tiger

Forecast: Helen’s Tiger was visually quite pleasing breaking her maiden down this Hillside course from off the pace; it was her first start under Prat and the improvement was noteworthy.  She looks capable of repeating on the raise, though Operandi, who defeated ‘Tiger when graduating three races back and the hit the board in two subsequent local turf sprints, is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.  We’ll include both, but then have a few extra tickets keying Helen’s Tiger.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Thirteen Squared; 5-Chocolate Martini; 6-Ollie’s Candy

Forecast: In a race that projects to offer decent-to-fast early fractions, Midwest shipper Chocolate Martini looks capable of producing the last run.  A respectable fifth in the Kentucky Oaks after winning the Fair Grounds Oaks with a powerful speed figure, the Amoss-trained daughter of Broken Vow has much in her favor.  Thirteen Squared stretches out again, lands the good rail, and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics.  If not pressured early she could take this field a long way.  Ollie’s Candy stretches out for the first time following a pair of facile scores vs. much softer competition over the all-weather Golden Gate Fields surface.  She’s a daughter of Candy Ride and therefore eligible to improve with distance and experience, so we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Stringent; 8-Eighty Three

Forecast: Eighty Three, first off the claim for Hollendorfer and dropping a notch for the money run, seems set for a major effort.  With several back speed figures good enough to beat this field, the son of Harlan’s Holiday retains Conner and can be expected to flash a bit more speed today with the addition of blinkers.  Stringent got a confidence-building win when beating restricted $16,000 foes last month and with another forward move should be competitive.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:06 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Salsita; 4-Red Livy

Forecast: Let’s see if we can survive this race using just two.  Red Livy takes a two-level class drop after being worn down late at 6/5 over this course and distance last May.  That was her second straight regression based strictly on speed figures, but against this softer group she’s eligible to bounce back.  Salsita is a real pro (first or second in 20 of 43 career starts) and has the route-to-sprint angle that always catches our eye.  The rail post does her no favors but if she can negotiate a good trip the veteran Miller-trained mare will be heard from in the final furlong.


​RACE 9: Post 4:38 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 6-Old Indian Trick; 7-Iron Curtain; 10-Git On Your Pulpit; 11-Perfect Wager

Forecast: This maiden claiming state-bred sprint is kind of a mess, and nothing would surprise us.  We’ll go four deep but feel free to toss in as many as you can afford.  Old Indian Trick shows up in a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the softer assignment.  The Machowsky-trained colt has the kind of early speed that could allow him to separate himself from the others early on, and the might be the edge that he needs.  Iron Curtain, second off a layoff for Brinkerhoff, missed by a neck in a similar affair at this abbreviated distance and has every right to move forward.  Two nice workouts since that race indicate he’s doing well.  Git On Your Pulpit still hasn’t mastered the art of changing leads, but after being out of his element in straight maiden company in his last start he removes blinkers and returns to his proper level.  Perfect Wager ran well to be third from off the pace in his last outing and may appreciate similar tactics today.


RACE 10: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 8-Helen Hillary

Forecast: Helen Hillary ran a winning race in defeat in her first start in seven months when runner-up vs. similar over this course and distance in early May.  She was bothered in the final sixteenth of a mile (there was no change), and with a clear path today following a recent bullet workout the D’Amato-trained filly should be set for a significant forward move.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.


RACE 11: Post 5:40 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 2-Gutsy Effort

Forecast: Gutsy Effort plummets to the bottom in his first start since early February and couldn’t have found a softer spot.  If he’s anywhere close to his best, he’ll romp, but he’s had layoff lines following each of his three starts, so there has to be a question of condition.  He gets a break in the weights with the switch to Espinoza and hails from a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners, so we’ll try him as a straight play and rolling exotic single.




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, June 16, 2018

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